Re: Hand Vs Good Player
 

i am folding this river never.

Re: Hand Vs Good Player
 

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I prefer playing it faster on the flop.

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agreed. i like bet/3bet. there are lots of cards that can come on the turn that will scare him off of a better hand if you take this line imo.

Re: Hand Vs Good Player
 

Looks fine.. but since you flopped an open ended straight draw you should played the hand a bit faster

Re: Hand Vs Good Player
 

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who took a WA/WB line?

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Hi etizzle,

What I'm trying to say is that from my point of view, it appears that the villain has a mediocre hand where he thinks he is WA/WB and is betting the river to get a call from AK and fold to raise. Maybe the villain has pocket 7s or something. I don't know when the river bet comes that he had plenty of outs, and it doesn't matter. The point is, his hand reads like an open book when he chooses the check-call check-call bet-a-blank river line, and I think I play my hand very well against this line.

If I've figured out how to handle this, then I'm sure others have as well and that makes using this very exploitable line dangerous, especially a good thinking player.

I'm not trying to say that his OESD is WA / WB. Sorry for the confusion.

-Eric

Re: Hand Vs Good Player
 

and how much do they bleed off a year to those that always seem to have something when they are pushing hard everything that looks like it deserves the pot.
did anyone think about folding on the flop or 4th street. is that a bad play, and is it so much better to build a big pot with a hand that most of your cards you are looking for can make him a little better hand.

and yes to your question. i would in this kind of spot, try to put as little in this pot i can until i thought i had the best hand.

Re: Hand Vs Good Player
 

i dont think most people on this board, or in general consider folding a clean 8 out draw HU on the flop or the turn. in terms of why that is, its because its a clear +EV play from an effective odds perspective on the flop to the river.

just doing the calculations in my head and assuming its a 1chip2chip blind structure, we're looking at calling 1.5bbs to win a 4.75bb pot if he calls the river when we hit. in that case, we're getting over 3:1 for a 2and change:1 effective draw (looking at the flop + turn and not just the flop and then the turn). if he doesn't call river when we hit, then we're looking at a much smaller gain but still +EV. odds against 8 out on flop to hit river is something like 2.2 or there abouts. if he didnt call river we'd be getting around 2.5:1 effective odds.

but ray, you definately do have a point in that if you look at the turn in isolation, you're getting 4.25:1 on a draw that needs closer to 5:1 to be +EV.

its interesting b/c nobody looks at the turn individually. we all look at the flop and take the effective odds from the flop, which look good. but if you look street by street, then on the turn it does look like a check fold from an EV perspective (assuming Js and Ts are no good, which isn't right 100% of the time).

anyways, making me go through the math of this again shows an interesting point. looking at bets you have to win from an effective odds standpoint, it's a positive expectation to call flop and turn and bet river. but if you look street by street, taking into acct all the bets that went in on the previous street, it doesn't look as good (i.e. no longer do we have a positive expectation on the turn).

its a funny paradox that arises in this case and you're post brings that out.

Barron

Re: Hand Vs Good Player
 

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its interesting b/c nobody looks at the turn individually. we all look at the flop and take the effective odds from the flop

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OK Barron now I am confused. I for one always look at things street by street, and u as an obvious math guy must also do this. I assume u just mispoke here? This is a huge oversight if not...

It is very obvious that each individual effective/implied odds decision on a particular street has its own set of decisions which only take into account the later streets and the size of the pot.

Re: Hand Vs Good Player
 

You might be on to something here, this fad has probably gone a little too far at this point in hold'ems evolution. I know these aggressive lines started because the chance of winning the pot were much better 4 years ago so these moves probably showed a profit. Now everyone calls down so it might be time to switch gears again.

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and how much do they bleed off a year to those that always seem to have something when they are pushing hard everything that looks like it deserves the pot.

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I am gonna look more into it and try to report back. One thing taking this aggressive line does is make u less predictable and more likely to get paid off when u have the goods. Also as I said before it allows u to steal some whole pots with an extra bet that u wouldnt have won in a showdown.

I am gonna go out of my way and really try observe how the big current hold em winners play this spot.

Re: Hand Vs Good Player
 

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its interesting b/c nobody looks at the turn individually. we all look at the flop and take the effective odds from the flop

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OK Barron now I am confused. I for one always look at things street by street, and u as an obvious math guy must also do this. I assume u just mispoke here? This is a huge oversight if not...

It is very obvious that each individual effective/implied odds decision on a particular street has its own set of decisions which only take into account the later streets and the size of the pot.

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im talking about the general decision making on the flop about when to continue. on the turn the decision may change. im saying that its rare that the turn individually gets taken into account on the flop. the turn decision gets to be made based on more prior information and current pot odds etc... i guess my wording was bad. sorry.

Barron

Re: Hand Vs Good Player
 

When playing against top players, there's generally a few rules that you should apply:

1. Don't give excessive action, because usually if the money is going in, it's not good for you.

2. You won't get excessive action, because they know the same.

3. Keep pots small, especially when out of position.

4. Do a few things to mix it up. That's why I like your line a lot (though check/calling the river is better). You sometimes just check/call all the way (unless you improve), sometimes, you might jam the flop, and sometimes you just hit them on the turn. I would tend to not jam the flop, since that's "so obviously a draw" but it is important to do this because you can get big action later, of course. There's a lot of guys online who are giving way too much action; they play better than me, but I still win a lot. Think about how much money they'd make if they stopped going crazy when they shouldn't. I know this is what Zee is talking about here and he's right. It's amazing, really how good the games are, even though they shouldn't be.