Re: Hypothetical Question
 

You really gave this some thought. The only things I don‘t quite follow are:

“That's $1140 / hr, but we have to pay the blinds ($45 * 4), leaving a net profit of $960 / hr, or .4 BB / hand.”

“75% of the time we win the blinds for 1.125 SB / hand”

You’re, essentially, paying a 2sb blind every hand, since you’ll always be putting in at least 2sb’s pre-flop. The only time, the fact that you’re in the blinds, matters much is when you just pick up the blinds.

With you’re first figure 1.125, it looks like you took 1.5*.75. The blinds in 30/60 are usually 30 and 20. So it should be 1.67 when you pick up the blinds from out of the blinds, and 1.00 when you’re in the SB and .67 when you’re in the BB. Using you’re estimate of winning the blinds 75% of the time: 1.84*.75=1.38

One small thing, that is going to have really not going to change the bottom line, is:

“3% of the time the BB draws to an ace and catches, winning 7SB from us (conservative estimate)”

“.6% of the time BB draws to pocket pair and flops a set, winning 9 SB from us (pretty conservative)”

I’m pretty sure the minimax in the first example is 7sb and the second example is 8sb.

I think you’re right, in that the SB should call a raise with an A, but you should gain from this, right?

Re: Hypothetical Question
 

"I think you’re right, in that the SB should call a raise with an A, but you should gain from this, right?"

no one is gonna be calling raises with anything. everyone's going to be folding almost every hand. theyre going to sit there preflop each time and say woah watch out that guy has KK, im folding! almost every hand you will just collect the blinds.

you guys are falling into the classic trap of thinking that most players think on the level you do. no one does.

Re: Hypothetical Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
"I think you’re right, in that the SB should call a raise with an A, but you should gain from this, right?"

no one is gonna be calling raises with anything. everyone's going to be folding almost every hand. theyre going to sit there preflop each time and say woah watch out that guy has KK, im folding! almost every hand you will just collect the blinds.

you guys are falling into the classic trap of thinking that most players think on the level you do. no one does.


[/ QUOTE ]

Didn't he say your opponents are experts?

Edit: nevermind. He said that 'experts' in the JJ thread but not in the KK thread. I wonder if that was intentional.

I've spent enough time thinking about this anyway.

Re: Hypothetical Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
. Ax is definitely playable from either blind and probably outside the blinds as well, although somewhat marginal there.

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Are you assuming a raise every time PF from KK? If not, you should be, I think.

Sparks

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Huh? Of course I'm assuming KK raises.

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Okay, then how is calling a raise with Ax +EV? A simple adjustment to the KK strategy of raising every time PF, but check-calling whenever an A shows up, means you will be -EV. The way I see it, going to showdown, Ax loses 2 out of 3 times. If you miss the flop and fold, then you're folding 4 out of 5 times, and losing $60 each time for a total of $240. On the 5th time, when you catch (and go on to win), you make 60 + 30 + 60 +60 = $210.

How is that +EV? Not saying your'e wrong, I just don't see it.

Sparks

Re: Hypothetical Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
"I think you’re right, in that the SB should call a raise with an A, but you should gain from this, right?"

no one is gonna be calling raises with anything. everyone's going to be folding almost every hand. theyre going to sit there preflop each time and say woah watch out that guy has KK, im folding! almost every hand you will just collect the blinds.

you guys are falling into the classic trap of thinking that most players think on the level you do. no one does.


[/ QUOTE ]

I can't believe you said this. How often do you see an old guy, who only raises with AA, KK, QQ, or AK, get called in the blinds from someone with Ax? I see it all the time.

Re: Hypothetical Question
 

"I can't believe you said this. How often do you see an old guy, who only raises with AA, KK, QQ, or AK, get called in the blinds from someone with Ax? I see it all the time."

but that's different from the player actually turning his KK up and saying "here's what i got for the whole table to see, you still wanna call?" that breaks the blind's suspension of disbelief and even they would start to fold.

Re: Hypothetical Question
 

"I'm sure you could be a great poker player and never think about things like this."

But I would think that a player who did think about things like this, and knew how to come up with an accurate answer, would be a favorite over a player who didn't and couldn't. Especially in no-limit.

Re: Hypothetical Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
that's wrong as well. folded to SB who makes a raise small in comparison to both blinds stacks, at that point SB's hand is revealed to be AA (both players know the BB knows). with what range of hands can the BB profitably call? DS says all hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's the same thing though since the AA is revealed after the small raise. If I knew you knew I had AA before I did anything I would just move in pre-flop to prevent you from being able to outplay me perfectly.

Re: Hypothetical Question
 

Hi Gabe,

[ QUOTE ]
With you’re first figure 1.125, it looks like you took 1.5*.75. The blinds in 30/60 are usually 30 and 20.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right. I used the 15/30 structure from partypoker, since I didn't know the answer.

[ QUOTE ]
So it should be 1.67 when you pick up the blinds from out of the blinds, and 1.00 when you’re in the SB and .67 when you’re in the BB. Using you’re estimate of winning the blinds 75% of the time: 1.67*.75=1.25

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP, I think.

I did it the way I did so I wouldn't have to treat the SB and BB independently. I just paid the blinds up front (-1.66 * 4) and then look at everything after that as pure profit. It's no more correct, just easier this way I think.


[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
“3% of the time the BB draws to an ace and catches, winning 7SB from us (conservative estimate)”

“.6% of the time BB draws to pocket pair and flops a set, winning 9 SB from us (pretty conservative)”

[/ QUOTE ]

I’m pretty sure the minimax in the first example is 7sb and the second example is 8sb.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I was making the very conservative estimate that the KK would allow a turn check-raise on a non-ace-high board, since I knew this would exclude anyone from drawing and feeling they could frequently call the flop and see the river, complicating the math. I agree that an improvement on this strategy is probably possible, I was just being conservative.

[ QUOTE ]
I think you’re right, in that the SB should call a raise with an A, but you should gain from this, right?

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No, if he's calling correctly, you're losing. I think the strategy improvements I described at the end of my post outweigh these finer adjustments to the EV calculation though. Call it $1000 - $1100 / hr.


Thanks,
Eric

Re: Hypothetical Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
"I think you’re right, in that the SB should call a raise with an A, but you should gain from this, right?"

no one is gonna be calling raises with anything. everyone's going to be folding almost every hand. theyre going to sit there preflop each time and say woah watch out that guy has KK, im folding! almost every hand you will just collect the blinds.

you guys are falling into the classic trap of thinking that most players think on the level you do. no one does.


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Mike, I think you're probably right in practice. I didn't find the realistic question very interesting though, since I'm never going to get KK face up over and over again anyways, so I approached it from the angle of my profit if my opponents played perfectly.

On a side note, if I ever DID get KK over and over again every hand, it would almost certainly be a prop bet of some kind, and I suspect my opponents would in fact play very well.

-Eric

Re: Hypothetical Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
"I'm sure you could be a great poker player and never think about things like this."

But I would think that a player who did think about things like this, and knew how to come up with an accurate answer, would be a favorite over a player who didn't and couldn't. Especially in no-limit.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd like to think so too. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Hypothetical Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
I am right in thinking that if someone chose to play sub-par hands with some potential against you, hoping others would enter the pot with them, that the KK would be worse off if several pots go four or five way?

And players will be "colluding" in an honest non-colluding way against you still, in multiway pots. You can probably see why in a three-way, more bets are going to go in between two-pair (having the KK beaten of course) and a straight.

Lars

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I think the jury is still out on this. On the plus side, the first guy is making a mistake, which benefits the KK, improving his winrate. On the downside, the extra money in the pot may allow some other hands to call correctly, taking some money away from KK.

My intuition is that the KK would benefit, but I can't prove it.

good luck.
eric

Re: Hypothetical Question
 

Are we raising every hand PF - thus costing everybody 2 Big Blinds to see the flop, except for the SB (1.5) and the BB (1.0)?

Are we assuming that our opponents play correctly and don't try to draw to one ace, a smaller pair, or suited connectors PF?

How are we going to play the hand after the flop - will we fold if the BB calls and an ace flops? Will we call down to the river if 3-bet PF, even though we know we are likely beat everytime we showdown?

Re: Hypothetical Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
how is calling a raise with Ax +EV? A simple adjustment to the KK strategy of raising every time PF, but check-calling whenever an A shows up, means you will be -EV. The way I see it, going to showdown, Ax loses 2 out of 3 times. If you miss the flop and fold, then you're folding 4 out of 5 times, and losing $60 each time for a total of $240. On the 5th time, when you catch (and go on to win), you make 60 + 30 + 60 +60 = $210.

How is that +EV? Not saying your'e wrong, I just don't see it.

Sparks


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Hi Sparks,

You're ignoring the blind money you're going to lose anyways every time you fold.

4 out of 5 times, you call, miss the flop, and lose $45 = $180 ($160 if you're playing 2/3 SB structure).

You're also understating the amount you win, as you left out both blinds as profit. When you win the 5th time, you win (105 or 110) + 30 + 60 + 60 = (260 or 265), assuming you get in no raises postflop.

That's $16-$21 / hand depending on the blind structure vs folding.

good luck.
Eric

edit: by the way, note that these numbers show calling outside the blinds to be barely profitable as well, HU at least. You win $260 when you catch, and lose $60 when you miss. Net EV = .18 (260) - .82 (60) = $2.40 / hand

This is too close to actually play though probably, as you have to worry about another dominating ace playing, or someone having AA, or the KK not paying off the ace high flop...

Re: Hypothetical Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
Are we raising every hand PF - thus costing everybody 2 Big Blinds to see the flop, except for the SB (1.5) and the BB (1.0)?

Are we assuming that our opponents play correctly and don't try to draw to one ace, a smaller pair, or suited connectors PF?

How are we going to play the hand after the flop - will we fold if the BB calls and an ace flops? Will we call down to the river if 3-bet PF, even though we know we are likely beat everytime we showdown?

[/ QUOTE ]

These are exactly the questions implied by the post. What do you think the answers are?

good luck.
eric

Re: Hypothetical Question
 

I think I'd always raise KK preflop.

Re: Hypothetical Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
how is calling a raise with Ax +EV? A simple adjustment to the KK strategy of raising every time PF, but check-calling whenever an A shows up, means you will be -EV. The way I see it, going to showdown, Ax loses 2 out of 3 times. If you miss the flop and fold, then you're folding 4 out of 5 times, and losing $60 each time for a total of $240. On the 5th time, when you catch (and go on to win), you make 60 + 30 + 60 +60 = $210.

How is that +EV? Not saying your'e wrong, I just don't see it.

Sparks


[/ QUOTE ]

You're ignoring the blind money you're going to lose anyways every time you fold. 4 out of 5 times, you call, miss the flop, and lose $45 = $180 ($160 if you're playing 2/3 SB structure).

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? I'm including the posted blind money, as I should. Why are you not including the blind money? 4 out of 5 times you lose 60 which is 240. On the 5th time you win 60 + 30 + 60 + 60 + 30(the folded BB post) = 240. So your best case scenario is you are break even when you're the SB. Otherwise, it's -EV, including playing from the BB and most certainly from positions other than the blinds.

If you don't want to include the posted blind money as a loss 4 out of 5 times, then Ax is +EV from the blinds. But obviously, it's just plain silly not to include it. Is it not money you are losing?

Thanks for your thoughts on this, by the way.

Sparks

Re: Hypothetical Question
 

To put it in your language Sparks, you'd have to look at a fold as losing $20. So 5 folds is -$100. Calling loses less, so it's +EV.

Personally, I think this is a very confusing way to look at the math, so I avoid it, but it's no less correct. I prefer to look at the money in the pot as dead, and folding is $0 EV. Either way, calling Ax is the play, worth over 1/2 SB / hand.

good luck.
eric

Re: Hypothetical Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
In a typical ten handed 30-60 game where you normally make $50 an hour, what would your win rate be if you were dealt two face up kings every hand and your opponents didn't collude? (Assume 40 hands per hour.)

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Um... Are they aware that you get kings every time?

Re: Hypothetical Question
 

face up kings

Re: Hypothetical Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In a typical ten handed 30-60 game where you normally make $50 an hour, what would your win rate be if you were dealt two face up kings every hand and your opponents didn't collude? (Assume 40 hands per hour.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Um... Are they aware that you get kings every time?

[/ QUOTE ]

He said "face up", so Yes!

Re: Hypothetical Question
 

Ok,
this question is a variation of the old Chris Ferguson problem, but now its limit and a full table.
Players are not colluding, but thinking. If all they wanted to do is beating the KK-guy they could do so by: implicit collusion:
KK always raises and everyone calls: what are the odds that KK will win against 9 random hands? below or above 50%?
doesnt matter anyway: KK will postflop never know for sure where he is. The rest will. opponents could play "solid" poker postflop and only bet if they have the goods. how big is the profit KK will make? even if there is something left: what if they try to bluff him with an optimal frequency? (ok, forget the optimal frequency, just bluff him from time to time). Im pretty certain that KK cant show a profit against a competent field (even if that is not the standard 30/60 game). Suddenly the game starts to look like real poker, with the KK at a real disadvantage.
The problem with all this:
People play poker to win money for themselves, not the whole table. So it is not sure if the players will really use this strategy, despite the "fact" that this is the only way to beat the game. (Because i havent done any math someone else will have to do that, i'll only take the nobel price for asking the right questions).
So how much does KK in reality make? i dont know, i cant think that far.
my 2 cents
u

Re: Hypothetical Question
 

I'm guessing the answers are yes, yes, yes, and no - but the point of my post is that you have to state your assumptions in order to figure out a mathmatically correct answer; otherwise anything you come up with is just an estimate. Do you see why?