Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

Maybe you all should move to Finland, or some other country where you don't have to pay taxes from poker winnings [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

At least not if they come from EU, like playing at Eurobet.

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

I think the plan of these articles is to get all the good players who are winning to stop playing poker so the writers can have all the fish for themselves!

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

I agree with Scuba here. I mean I just started playing poker last year, I don't pretend to be a great player but managed to have a $3000+ month last month simply 8 tabling the 22s with a 20% ROI which has been my average over the last 2000 games.

For next year, my goal is not 100K as I don't play the amount as Scuba, but I think 50K will be possible and I don't play that much at all.

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

[ QUOTE ]

eastbay, you seem bright. Everything seems easy to people who are good at it. How would you feel if Barry Bonds asked you why you aren't making $15 million a year playing baseball? Spend some time in the gym and at the batting cage and you should be making a couple of million in a few years, right? Discipline is a skill.


[/ QUOTE ]

Give me 3 guys off the street, sight unseen, and give me the option of trying to get them to $100k earn rates in poker in 12 months, or get them a place in the major leagues in 12 months (with the help of a great coach, even.)

Which would you pick? Your comparison is ridiculous. Getting to the majors takes years of dedication starting from a young age and huge amounts of raw talent. Poker simply does not. Some aptitude, some willingness to think and study. How many people have I seen go from clueless to wailing on the games right on this board in the last couple years? A hell of a lot. But I haven't known anybody who picked up a baseball and was in the big money leagues in 12 months, ever. Probably because that simply doesn't happen.

eastbay

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

Not even with steroids.

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

[ QUOTE ]
Saying that the poker craze will fade is totally insane. It's like saying the lottery craze will fade or the blackjack craze will fade. There are millions of people playing the lottery and blackjack RIGHT NOW and there always will be. People LOVE to gamble and they LOVE casinos. The fact that you can actually gain an edge in poker by studying some books and reading some forums is just a bonus. Plus, the internet is just an unstoppable force that will keep expanding until every person on the planet is logged on from their laptop\cell\palm\toaster. This guy is reading into it too much. It's not some Darwinian competition where only the best survive. It's an unending river of cash flowing from millions of people into casinos and a small group of winning players (but mostly casinos).

dog

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The World Poker Tour's ratings have dropped this season--maybe even the last two seasons, I can't remember. When poker fades as a pop culture phenomenon, the poker shows will be pulled off of Bravo and the Travel Channel. All the people who would watch Celebrity Poker every week and decide to give poker a shot will take up swing dancing or Asian cooking instead, and the influx of new people will slow.

I'm not willing to predict an end to the poker boom, but to believe that it will remain at its current level of popularity seems over-optimistic. The free publicity for poker as a whole will diminish; the opportunities for mainstream advertising for poker rooms will be less ideal. Fewer people will sign up.

We can probably all agree that poker is, in fact, a craze at the moment. There is, to my knowledge, no blackjack craze; nor is there a lottery craze. People gamble at those games at rates that are in accordance with what they've always been.

Crazes never last. Beanie Babies no longer cause riots at Hallmark stores. We stopped doing the Macarena. Poker will become less popular with the general public. This seems obvious to me.

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

How many years have you made $100K, then? "Feel bad for me"? I have $50+/hr months of work myself, and it's nice for my ego to do some simple multiplication and end up living on easy street.

There's a huge difference between making $8K a month and making $100K a year. Huge. Look at the post below yours agreeing with you. Some dude making $3K a month who thinks he'll make $100K next year. It's a nice dream and it's possible, but we shall see. I'd bet against it given even money.

I'm cool with getting disagreed with on this point, but I'm going to ask people who don't make $100K/yr to refrain from telling me how easy it is. If it was that damn easy you'd be doing it, not hoping to do it.

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm cool with getting disagreed with on this point, but I'm going to ask people who don't make $100K/yr to refrain from telling me how easy it is. If it was that damn easy you'd be doing it, not hoping to do it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the other posters point is that once you start to get into it, and have success yourself, you can start to see the big picture. And the big picture is that a lot more than 1K poker players out there are making more the $100k. That's the point. For me, to even be this close, is very eye-opening.

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

It's easier than baseball, yes(I highly doubt the best poker player makes $25 million a year, though). It was an analogy to help show my point about how things seem easy to people who are good at them.

I suspect 0 of your men off the street would reach either the majors or the $100K poker playing level in a year. The chance is significantly higher that you'd make a good poker player, but to balance that out if you've found a phenom baseball player he'll obviously make a great deal more than $100K.

Poker has very low barriers to entry, which is something that will never change. It's certainly conceivable that someone with $500 and ability could make $50K their first year, $100K their second. But it's damn unlikely. It takes all of the various skills that make good technical poker(math, putting people on ranges, table selection, what have you) along with the significantly more important skills of bankroll management, motivation to work, discipline to avoid tilt, etc. All of them.

What you dismiss as nothing is a skill that it is difficult or impossible for some people to develop.

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

I didn't say 100k next year, I said 50K next year and I firmly believe I will reach that number.

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

you make such great reads.....i'm a noob who has played poker for 45 years....10 in card rooms making a (very modest) living. have an advanced education that allows me to understand the things of which you speak. (another great read---i don't even know these things exist!!!!). point still remains: where's the proof? 1000's of people making over 100k per year (a great many online). step foreward.........or, we can all regard what you say for what it is: just internet chatter on some forum. h

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

[ QUOTE ]
you make such great reads.....i'm a noob who has played poker for 45 years....10 in card rooms making a (very modest) living. have an advanced education that allows me to understand the things of which you speak. (another great read---i don't even know these things exist!!!!). point still remains: where's the proof? 1000's of people making over 100k per year (a great many online). step foreward.........or, we can all regard what you say for what it is: just internet chatter on some forum. h

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I'm assuming you don't make near 100k a year? Is that a good read? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

I don't know if the end is coming or not, but I plan to hone my skills and make some cash while I can.

I've been playing since May and have had to kick and scratch for the $1k I earned for the entire time. I'm playing $25/$50NL and $10STTs. What are you doing to have made ~$15k in the time I made $1k? I don't doubt your claim, I just want to know what you do differently.

Larger stakes? Higher RIO and/or BB/hr?

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

Most of my friends that play online poker aren't at all concerned with long term winning. If they make $2000 in a day, the last thing they want to do is cashout. They want to leave more money there to gamble with.

Instead of coming up with strategies to make money, they instead figure out how to "make the money last longer" so that they only have to deposit twice a week instead of twice a day.

Someone just told me today that he plays the mini-step tournaments on party because you get so many retries. For $6 he gets to play 6 tournaments and even if he loses, he is only losing about $6 every 2-3 hours. When he tried $10/$20 he was losing about $300/hr.

paperboyNC

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

[ QUOTE ]
point still remains: where's the proof? 1000's of people making over 100k per year (a great many online). step foreward

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Adding up every major site, when deals are included, the PS 500K/700K, the Party $1M, Party 500K and a number of other big MTT's all pay out six figures or close to that to at least a dozen people a week.

Forget the 30/60 and above limit games, the 2K NL, 5K HU SNG's (where a number of people have big edges), and people 8 tabling the 215's...just the online MTT winners alone add up to a thousand.

That's not quite what you meant, maybe, but at any given big event, 2-3 guys you see at the final table are familiar names that consistently make it deep. I can name a few dozen regulars just at Party I know make that much.

As for lower stakes...I'm sorry, but a robot *can* make money at Party 11's-22's playing the same way. I posted a strategy I made up in two hours on a whim that basically proves the concept. That doesn't get you to 100K, but it's not by any means 'hard' to beat that game or even to make a living at it. Playing push/fold poker makes money and that's 100% tenth grade math...add in playing the bubble halfway decent and you're at your magic 20% ROI. Is it seriously that difficult for most people to do that well?

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

The games should get tougher at some point, but there are some factors working in favor of the current $$/hr. figures staying at least near where they are now for quite a while (knock on wood).

(a) Americans love to gamble, are stupid about it, and millions have been introduced to hold 'em, now know it's rules and how to play (which was a big barrier before).
-The first live $3/6 game I ever played (about a month into my poker playing career) I was shocked at how awful everyone's starting hand requriements were - for chrissakes read a friggin book for 5 minutes, follow the guidelines roughly - it's not friggin hard for even a dumbass to do. The fact that no one was even close to correct made a pretty strong impression, and made me realize just how much people want to just gamble.

(b) There are millions of people in the US, and millions of people across the globe who really like to gamble, but have not been introduced yet to internet poker (haven't played it online yet). The rate of new players will definitely fall off at some point, but there's still a huge pool to draw from.

(c) While it sounds incredible to non-poker players, a lot of top internet players get to where they're making > $100/hour and then get bored and for the most part quit (or cut way back on their hours). Thus, it's not a system where the top gets logjammed with top earners putting in 40+ hour weeks. Of the people that get to the top of the "ponzi scheme," at lot step aside (partially or fully) - a very odd and unique dynamic indeed.

(d) Antigua won their WTO appeal, so it looks like the Bush Admin. won't we restricting funding of internet sites/advertising.

But regardless of your beliefs of what will happen the next 5-10 years, max your SEP IRA and save a sh-tload of money on the side and it won't be so bad if your hourly gets cut in half or even worse.

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

Consistent $100K/yr. $50/hr for 2000 hours, $100 hr for 1000, and so on. I believe Sklansky has a bit about this somewhere. There are a lot of gamblers who make $100K in any given year, but there are very very few who make it twice.

Adanthar, using that exact same sort of logic I can say that lots of people make $20K a year playing slots. I mean, look at all those jackpots! That's not even counting people who go on good non-jackpot runs. Clearly, the slots craze can't last forever.

Also, I'm calling you out on your strategy proving the concept. That isn't what proving means. Do you have any evidence that someone following your system can beat the $11s for 20%? Not guessing, not informed speculation, I want hundreds of 20% ROI SNGs.
Not to say a 20% ROI at the $11s is difficult to acheive, it really isn't. That is something most people could do with a little study and a little experience. I doubt very many people are making a living off the $11s, most simply because anyone who is good enough to beat the $11s is going to try a higher level.

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

What kinds of numbers are you talking? Its against Party's Terms and Conditions to use a bot but I have no doubt a player using that strategy coupled with a refined bubble strategy can beat the 11s at 20%.

If the stakes are big enough, there were a mutually agreeable guineau pig and a big enough sized wager (I would want to pay the player regardless) I would be interesting to betting on adanthar's guide being successful.

I beat the 11s at greater than 20% to start over my first 400 or so while playing the bubble weak tight.

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

i *might* make 1k this year. h

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

yes, the 1040's of your 'students' should settle the matter. h

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

if you don't doubt the claims of card gamblers i predict a very expensive series of poker lessons ahead. if you have an interest in the academic you may want to read Ziskin's 10 yr study on sociopathy. h

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

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I didn't say 100k next year, I said 50K next year and I firmly believe I will reach that number.

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lol this is funny, everybody trying to convince this guy that it is doable and being done by many...who cares...ur right dude, can't be done, its all BS

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

[ QUOTE ]

I'm cool with getting disagreed with on this point, but I'm going to ask people who don't make $100K/yr to refrain from telling me how easy it is. If it was that damn easy you'd be doing it, not hoping to do it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Look, people are getting way too hung up on the specific figure of $100K/yr.

The point here is that making money at poker is easier than so many other things you can do to make comparable money from a cold start.

Whether it's $70k or $100k or $150k is not important. The point is that whatever you're making at it, you probably had to work less for it than just about any other option for the same money.

If I told you you had to raise $15k as quickly as possible (no loans), how would you do it? What are your best options?

eastbay

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

[ QUOTE ]

If I told you you had to raise $15k as quickly as possible (no loans), how would you do it? What are your best options?

eastbay

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big pile of coke and 8 tables solid from 3pm Friday to 11pm Sunday [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

It can be done, but it's a lot harder than you seem to think. For example, you aren't doing it, right?

You and Scuba are making the insane claims of 10,000 people doing it and things like that.

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

eastbay- Well, obviously, among people who are good at poker poker is the answer to that question is poker.

And easier? I think not. You've had a regular job, right? The vast majority of regular jobs are jokes. No mental energy expended. Much less stress. Health insurance, 401ks, stability... Those things have utility. Lots of it.

40 hours of poker is 40 hours of work. 40 hours on the clock is like 15 hours of actual work.

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

But people play poker when it is -$/hr. Meaning that for th average person, playing poker isnt 'work'. If you held my salary constant, I would pick 60 hours of poker to the 15 hours of work you are mentioning. Also, any poker player I know would rather spend an hour playing poker than sitting in an office doing nothing

You are also missing the whole point of Eastbay's post. For the average person, getting a 100K a year job just isnt feasible. Not how hard they work once they get there, but their chances of getting there.

Think of it as a finish line. We have a contest, who can get a random person earning 100K quicker. You can send your guy to college, get him an internship, whatever you want. I will get my dude a poker coach. Holding everything else constant, who do you think is making 100K first?

I could probably find a job in my industry where I worked 10 hours a week, and earned 50-60K (but I am still there 40 hours a week, which has significant disutility). But I have also had 5 years of training, been to grad school, etc, etc. whereas someone could earn that playing poker in much less time. (albeit longer hours)

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

[ QUOTE ]
eastbay- Well, obviously, among people who are good at poker poker is the answer to that question is poker.


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And how much effort does it take to get good at poker? Not as much as it takes to get good at something else which pays comparably.

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And easier? I think not. You've had a regular job, right?


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I've had jobs from dishwashing to being in charge of large, extremely complex and technical engineering projects and everything in between (driving a delivery truck, retail sales, paving roads, lawn and garden, short order cook, teacher, research assistant, and a few others I can't even remember any more.)

Dollar for dollar, poker is far and away the easiest thing I've ever done. By a longshot.

[ QUOTE ]

The vast majority of regular jobs are jokes. No mental energy expended. Much less stress. Health insurance, 401ks, stability... Those things have utility. Lots of it.

40 hours of poker is 40 hours of work. 40 hours on the clock is like 15 hours of actual work.

[/ QUOTE ]

Poker is a card game. It's hardly work.

Oh, and I still have a regular job. I keep it for the stability you mention, but I certainly pay a price for that stability. Answering to a boss, keeping strict hours, traveling when I'm required to, preparing endless reports, presentations, budgets, dealing with conflicts between employees. All this stuff is a major pain in the ass compared to playing a silly card game.

Again, if you can find me something that pays as well as poker and is easier, that I can come at cold and be successful within a year, please let me know what it is. I'm all over that. Seriously.

eastbay

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

It is ridiculous to say that Poker will never fade right now it is booming more than it ever has, and it will eventually fade maybe not a lot or as much as he is prediciting, but still a good amount nevertheless.

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

[ QUOTE ]
Again, if you can find me something that pays as well as poker and is easier, that I can come at cold and be successful within a year, please let me know what it is. I'm all over that. Seriously.

[/ QUOTE ]

What is easy for some people is hard for others. Some people can step into a real estate office and make well over $100k right off the bat, maybe selling cars too. Many of those people couldn't a living at poker.

I'm sure some people destroying the poker tables would lay a goose egg selling real estate.

EB, I could have you making more than $100k as a real estate appraiser in a year or so, but I wouldn't do that to you.

Still, I think a lot of people, though not most, could make good money at poker with a good teacher and some work. You don't have to be a genius because most opponents are not taking it that seriously.

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

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If you know of some kind of career that you can go in totally cold and come out 12 months later at that kind of income level, be sure to let me know what it is! Otherwise, I stand by my comments.

eastbay

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Sales in many industries. But sales is a lot harder than online poker.

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

You've had retail sales, but have you had real sales? Pitching refinances over the telephone is another low barrier to entry, high income right away job. Maybe you should give it a shot. Anyone with a good grasp of English can get brought on at a chopshop mortage house.

Getting back to professional sports, is basketball work? I'm a reasonably intelligent and competent fellow, what that translated to at most of the jobs I've held was that I'd get my responsibilities done and then dick around for a while. You can't dick around 8 tabling the $55s.

It's a fun job, but it's still a job.

You're absolutely right that there are a lot of people who could be making $50K+(and yes, $100K is an arbitarily high total. $35K is average income in the US, I'd say $20K is 'making a living') playing poker who aren't doing it. It's not because they aren't aware of the opportunity, though:
If your boss at your regular job offered you a promotion and a raise(to, oh, your current salary+80% of your current poker income) with the condition that you stop playing poker, would you turn him down?

Money is only part of the equation. People select for utility, and professional poker playing has a unique set of pros and cons. Almost all of it's utility comes from the income earned, whereas, say, Senator has almost all of it's utility from non-salary areas.