Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

[ QUOTE ]

Yes, that's the basic idea. Also, if you pass on this hypothetical 57.5% coin flip, it will take some time before you find your "better" situation to get your money in. If instead you had called for all your chips and won, you would've been able to use your skill with the new stack. So if you want to wait for a "better" spot to double up, it has to be significantly better, because if you double up here, you'll have more chips later.

Best,
Matt

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this edge inevitable to pass up even when you consider yourself to be one of the best players in the tournament, able to build your stack without showing down much?

This was a topic discussed earlier this week.

Oh, and ty for posting Matt. Post more when you can. [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

[ QUOTE ]
Is this edge inevitable to pass up even when you consider yourself to be one of the best players in the tournament, able to build your stack without showing down much?


[/ QUOTE ]

It's sort of a Catch-22. The best players in the tournament don't pass up an edge like this, almost by definition. Another way to say this, it's going to be very hard for you to build your stack without showing down unless you convince your opponents that you're not afraid to call in spots like this. And the best way to convince them is, of course, to call.

Matt

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

i stopped reading once you told us that you pushed... not for any particular reason, so i mightve missed something... but i think your play is bad because it looks like you have 22-JJ(at best).

and its too likely that you will get called, also why not just wait and outplay these guys later?

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

ZJ,

I didnt think you had this in you, you little nit. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

I think you represent a hand like 88 pretty well.

-Jason

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

Is representing 22-JJ bad?

I think thats probably what he was trying to do... What range do u put the smart/aggro reraiser on?

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

[ QUOTE ]
The move is great only if players will fold, and my uncontested number is 20%. The rest is a crapshoot where hero has the worst of it, but an overlay.

[/ QUOTE ]
You really think his FE here is only 20%? I put it alot higher.

An aggressive player re-raises a guy who mistakenly raised. Then a tight player (sure I know ZJ isn't tight, but does this guy know this?) pushes over the top. This to me is where an aggressive smart player says NH and mucks his 98s.

Worst case, I think you get called here by a smaller pair and are coinflipping. Sure MP1 thinks it will be vs. AK, but it is really J9.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

[ QUOTE ]
Is representing 22-JJ bad?

I think thats probably what he was trying to do... What range do u put the smart/aggro reraiser on?

[/ QUOTE ]

i thought he was over confident aggro? i think he'll call with any two broadway cards, any mid pair.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

I really like this play. Almost nobody will call you on this.(unless they already have u dominated . Although I would be worried about the MP1 (old dood) calling you with A,J. If he’s not that good he may just not realize that AJ isn’t an all in hand in the first level  Although id probably put him on a suited connector. 7,8 – 8,9 – 9,10. Besides that I think that the Aggressive young guy wont call you with anything less then QQ. Not even AK probably. (due to the fact hes playing LAG he’s probably got KJ, maybe QJ. So hes a fold) He’s aggressive and probably realizes his aggression can gain him more chips by continuting to have a lot of chips and using them aggressively vs possibly playing a tricky situation and is already dominated.(because u are representing AA,KK,QQ,AK to most ppl Lets be honest, most avg players will think that is what you have here. Lets just say we are glad DW didnt have a hand and he already folded [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Most ppl WANT To think you have aces and kings here so they'll fold this early in a tourny.) We all can see that MP3 is stealing this pot. Although probably a 5%-10% chance hes got a monster and was smooth calling with aces and now with the pot built hes trying to get It heads up or win the pot right here. Id say unlikely. Although ive been wrong before.

Personally I’ve always gone by the modo Don’t get ur chips in the middle unless your pretty damn sure you’re the decent favourite. With so many ppl in this pot I probably wouldn’t make this same play just for the fact that I would be pretty sure I could get my money in in a better spot in the future. There is defeintly a potential for a call from 1 out of 3 players.

Overall I really do like this play (personally if I made this play id PREFER folds but getting a caller and outdrawing a sucker would be almost as good for your table image (just like u said, ppl would have no idea how to play you, theyd probably think your bluffing everytime after this. You stand to make a lot of chips from this play in future as long as ur table doesn’t break. I like it. Good move. I hope you outdrew Aces  I LOVE hearing idiots say (“ I NEVER WIN WITH ACES”) haha It’s possibly my favourite line.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

[ QUOTE ]
MP1 is an older guy, (45ish). He doesn't seem too experienced, and is clearly one of the worst players at the table. He's loose passive. I'm fairly certain he's a low limit online player that won a satellite into this event. My read is that he will be very hesitant to put his tournament on the line. He has roughly 9k chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does anyone consider this guy a threat? I know ZJ said he's hesitant to go out, but I've seen these lowlimit donkeys call raise after raise pf with JJ or QQ. He may be too scared to bet but happy to call allin with it.

Eh, it seems unlikely. Just a thought. If I'm right, do I win a cookie?

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

I do not have time to read all of the responses, so I apologize if this has been said already.

If I were at the table and not in the hand I would be guessing that you and MP3 were both weak. The nice part about your play is that you got all of your chips in first and now MP3 is going to have a hard time calling that many chips. I think you win without seeing a flop. It pays to be aggressive here.

The bad news is that if you see a flop, you are almost certainly an underdog and will need to catch up. The biggest problem I have with this play is that you were only in the pot for T150 and now your tournament life is on the line with J9. I hope it worked out for you.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

[ QUOTE ]
I predict he called w/ 88 and you hit a 9.

[/ QUOTE ]

But that makes it a good play if he knows he likely has an underpair and may or may not call doesn't it? He's not much of a dog to underpairs and the pot is giving him a signifigant overlay.

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js 9s 822347 48.03 882398 51.53 7559 0.44 0.482
8c 8h 882398 51.53 822347 48.03 7559 0.44 0.518

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

[ QUOTE ]
The biggest problem I have with this play is that you were only in the pot for T150 and now your tournament life is on the line with J9. I hope it worked out for you.


[/ QUOTE ]

why is this a problem if he's going to increase his stack by 40% around 50-60% of the time w/ zero risk? It's about recognizing profitable situations, and when all factors are added up, this certainly qualifies.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I predict he called w/ 88 and you hit a 9.

[/ QUOTE ]

But that makes it a good play if he knows he likely has an underpair and may or may not call doesn't it? He's not much of a dog to underpairs and the pot is giving him a signifigant overlay.

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js 9s 822347 48.03 882398 51.53 7559 0.44 0.482
8c 8h 882398 51.53 822347 48.03 7559 0.44 0.518

[/ QUOTE ]

You forgot a key stat in your monday morning analysis. He hit the 9 in the prediction. That makes this a no-brainer. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

[ QUOTE ]
why is this a problem if he's going to increase his stack by 40% around 50-60% of the time w/ zero risk? It's about recognizing profitable situations, and when all factors are added up, this certainly qualifies.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you please explain how you can do something with zero risk that is successful less than 100% of the time. This makes no sense.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
why is this a problem if he's going to increase his stack by 40% around 50-60% of the time w/ zero risk? It's about recognizing profitable situations, and when all factors are added up, this certainly qualifies.

[/ QUOTE ]
I believe he's saying there's zero risk those times he doesn't get called and increases his stack significantly uncontested, which is an odd way to phrase it seeing as the pay itself has an element of risk obviously.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

[ QUOTE ]
I believe he's saying there's zero risk those times he doesn't get called and increases his stack significantly uncontested, which is an odd way to phrase it seeing as the pay itself has an element of risk obviously.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understood what he was trying to say. I still, however, stand by my "this makes no sense."

Unless of course he considered this tournament a freeroll, as long as he payed his $10K.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I believe he's saying there's zero risk those times he doesn't get called and increases his stack significantly uncontested, which is an odd way to phrase it seeing as the pay itself has an element of risk obviously.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understood what he was trying to say. I still, however, stand by my "this makes no sense."

Unless of course he considered this tournament a freeroll, as long as he payed his $10K.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, i realized after i wrote it that it was poorly phrased. However, the fact remains that his EV in this situation is not negligable and the 'why risk your tournament life' argument never seems to take this into consideration.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

<font color="blue"> Results donkey! </font> <font color="red"> Results donkey! </font> <font color="green"> Results donkey! </font>

RESULTS
 

Ok, sorry for all the anticipation.

The results I'm about to share absolutely flabbergasted me. SB instantly folded. MP1 thought for about 5-10 seconds and put his chips in w/ an expression on his face saying "I have to". MP3 asked for a count. I said I started the hand w/ 10,000 chips, but he wanted the dealer to count the chips anyway. The dealer counted out about 7800 in MP1's stack, and then MP3 mucked his cards before the dealer even counted my stack. IMHO, I don't think he ever was actually considering calling. I think he was just acting to make it look like he didn't ahve complete [censored].

Then MP1 did the unthinkable. He flipped over Ace-Jack not-suited. I lost leaving me crippled.

I played at the table for another 90 minutes, and even after all that time, my read on MP1 didn't change. He was definately loose passive, and almost definately an internet qualifier. I am still in disbelief as to how he of all people could put in his entire stack with AJo.

I know some people here are going to defend his call and say, "great read", but against my range of hands that I merely call the original 150 w/, AJo is even money (this range includes, any pair, any suited ace, AKo, AQo, suited connectors down to 54s, suited one gaps down to 64s, and a couple of unsuited broadway hands). If he's even money vs the range of hands I put in 150 chips with, his call for 8,000 more chips during 25/50 blinds is just abysmal.

My overall analysis of this play:
My read on how willing MP1 was to put his tournament life at stake was clearly off.
Given my reads however (that were otherwise correct), I think this play has a significant positive chip equity.
Despite that, there is just too much risk of me going broke during this hand, and I should have given up this edge to avoid missing out on bigger edges later on.
-Thanks for all the insight
-ZJ

Re: RESULTS
 

This is why we like you Internet kids in the cash games (the read, not the play).

Re: RESULTS
 

[ QUOTE ]

Then MP1 did the unthinkable. He flipped over Ace-Jack not-suited. I lost leaving me crippled.
.
I played at the table for another 90 minutes, and even after all that time, my read on MP1 didn't change. He was definately loose passive, and almost definately an internet qualifier. I am still in disbelief as to how he of all people could put in his entire stack with AJo.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're not making yourself clear here. If he's definitley loose-passive, isn't that the kind of player you expect to call a big all-in raise? This seems especially true in situations where he's put some money into the pot first and then raised behind him.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

[ QUOTE ]
My read is that he will be very hesitant to put his tournament on the line.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well obviously you were off on that...

People can be such idiots though, as MP1 was in this hand. What a dunkey [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: RESULTS
 

This is what concerned me way back when. Also, while MP3 can't seriously consider overcalling, I think perhaps you are being a bit dismissive about the fact that after MP1 called MP3 didn't really put a lot of thought into the call. I am not convinced that if MP1 folds that you get past MP3 a very high % of the time.

You pretty much said it yourself though. Def not the worst play you'll ever make, but also prob better here to drop 150 and wait for a better spot.

Re: RESULTS
 

I think your play is fine, given what your reads, but the question should be why did you decide he would not like to put his tournament life on the line. You describe him as a loose passive player, who probably got there by a satelitte. Those type of players are just happy to be there, and thus make those type of calls. Maybe since he was around 45 years old you figured he would tighter than a 25 year old player who played the same exact way.

Re: RESULTS
 

[ QUOTE ]
My overall analysis of this play:
My read on how willing MP1 was to put his tournament life at stake was clearly off.
Given my reads however (that were otherwise correct), I think this play has a significant positive chip equity.
Despite that, there is just too much risk of me going broke during this hand, and I should have given up this edge to avoid missing out on bigger edges later on.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't understand this at all. i mean, i do, but not coming from you.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

Moral: When you are playing against poor players who are capable of ridiculous plays, take that into account.

Re: RESULTS
 

I've never played anywhere close to that big a tourney, but

If he has AJo then he is correct to call if the chances of you having AA-JJ, AK/AQ are pretty low. Given that you didn't raise the first chance you had, and that you took 20+ seconds to jam the second time around, i don't think it takes that much of a great read to make his call.

sure its hindsight, sure the other guy raised, sure he may not have been able to think like that, but.....just mho

-g

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

transparent.

suppose someone told weak middle-aged guy "your only chance is to take risk and gamble it up against people that can outplay you." which would be proper given his weakness.

i agree with strassa that the only legit hand you are holding here and repping is at best JJ, likely being a smaller pair. so this makes AJ a call given the overlay added by aggressive guy.

old man magee could have also been holding a hand like TT and figured you are some young twat donkey that only knows how to get it in there with AQ and hope for the best.

even under the conditions that ALL of your assumptions are correct i still do not care much for the play. compound that with the fact your analysis of the situation was off, and it makes it terrible.

sucks to go out like that, but get yourself some sun.

Re: RESULTS
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, sorry for all the anticipation.

The results I'm about to share absolutely flabbergasted me. SB instantly folded. MP1 thought for about 5-10 seconds and put his chips in w/ an expression on his face saying "I have to". MP3 asked for a count. I said I started the hand w/ 10,000 chips, but he wanted the dealer to count the chips anyway. The dealer counted out about 7800 in MP1's stack, and then MP3 mucked his cards before the dealer even counted my stack. IMHO, I don't think he ever was actually considering calling. I think he was just acting to make it look like he didn't ahve complete [censored].

Then MP1 did the unthinkable. He flipped over Ace-Jack not-suited. I lost leaving me crippled.

I played at the table for another 90 minutes, and even after all that time, my read on MP1 didn't change. He was definately loose passive, and almost definately an internet qualifier. I am still in disbelief as to how he of all people could put in his entire stack with AJo.

I know some people here are going to defend his call and say, "great read", but against my range of hands that I merely call the original 150 w/, AJo is even money (this range includes, any pair, any suited ace, AKo, AQo, suited connectors down to 54s, suited one gaps down to 64s, and a couple of unsuited broadway hands). If he's even money vs the range of hands I put in 150 chips with, his call for 8,000 more chips during 25/50 blinds is just abysmal.

My overall analysis of this play:
My read on how willing MP1 was to put his tournament life at stake was clearly off.
Given my reads however (that were otherwise correct), I think this play has a significant positive chip equity.
Despite that, there is just too much risk of me going broke during this hand, and I should have given up this edge to avoid missing out on bigger edges later on.
-Thanks for all the insight
-ZJ

[/ QUOTE ]

I still think it was a great play.
-James

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

chuddo,

dont give strassa credit for things i said.
[img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Re: RESULTS
 

[ QUOTE ]
If he's definitley loose-passive, isn't that the kind of player you expect to call a big all-in raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

Good god, with AJo? I would say 99% hell no.

I think Justin was just wrong on the read of him being a total [censored] retard.

Re: RESULTS
 

[ QUOTE ]
Given my reads however (that were otherwise correct), I think this play has a significant positive chip equity.
Despite that, there is just too much risk of me going broke during this hand, and I should have given up this edge to avoid missing out on bigger edges later on.

[/ QUOTE ]

The last sentence is exactly what went through my head reading the post pre-results - unless a bigger stack can be utilized to steal/pick up future pots uncontested (which it sounds like it isn't)

Re: RESULTS
 

[ QUOTE ]

Despite that, there is just too much risk of me going broke during this hand, and I should have given up this edge to avoid missing out on bigger edges later on.


[/ QUOTE ]

Just delete that last sentence and your analysis is dead-on.

When you find your big edges, don't you want to have a lot of chips in front of you? Do you notice Phil Ivey, Daniel Negreanu, Erick Lindgren, or Greg Raymer passing up significant edges very often? How well do those guys do in tournaments?

Matt

Re: RESULTS
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, sorry for all the anticipation.

The results I'm about to share absolutely flabbergasted me. SB instantly folded. MP1 thought for about 5-10 seconds and put his chips in w/ an expression on his face saying "I have to". MP3 asked for a count. I said I started the hand w/ 10,000 chips, but he wanted the dealer to count the chips anyway. The dealer counted out about 7800 in MP1's stack, and then MP3 mucked his cards before the dealer even counted my stack. IMHO, I don't think he ever was actually considering calling. I think he was just acting to make it look like he didn't ahve complete [censored].

Then MP1 did the unthinkable. He flipped over Ace-Jack not-suited. I lost leaving me crippled.

I played at the table for another 90 minutes, and even after all that time, my read on MP1 didn't change. He was definately loose passive, and almost definately an internet qualifier. I am still in disbelief as to how he of all people could put in his entire stack with AJo.

I know some people here are going to defend his call and say, "great read", but against my range of hands that I merely call the original 150 w/, AJo is even money (this range includes, any pair, any suited ace, AKo, AQo, suited connectors down to 54s, suited one gaps down to 64s, and a couple of unsuited broadway hands). If he's even money vs the range of hands I put in 150 chips with, his call for 8,000 more chips during 25/50 blinds is just abysmal.

My overall analysis of this play:
My read on how willing MP1 was to put his tournament life at stake was clearly off.
Given my reads however (that were otherwise correct), I think this play has a significant positive chip equity.
Despite that, there is just too much risk of me going broke during this hand, and I should have given up this edge to avoid missing out on bigger edges later on.
-Thanks for all the insight
-ZJ

[/ QUOTE ]

Other than the very first CC, I'd play AJo the exact same way MP1 did. I don't think I'd have to think too long about calling your push with AJo either. Like yeah, it's "putting your tournament life on the line". Like the only hands he should be afraid of are AQ and JJ, but the pot was so bloated by then, I couldn't see him folding too quickly.

Re: RESULTS
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ok, sorry for all the anticipation.

The results I'm about to share absolutely flabbergasted me. SB instantly folded. MP1 thought for about 5-10 seconds and put his chips in w/ an expression on his face saying "I have to". MP3 asked for a count. I said I started the hand w/ 10,000 chips, but he wanted the dealer to count the chips anyway. The dealer counted out about 7800 in MP1's stack, and then MP3 mucked his cards before the dealer even counted my stack. IMHO, I don't think he ever was actually considering calling. I think he was just acting to make it look like he didn't ahve complete [censored].

Then MP1 did the unthinkable. He flipped over Ace-Jack not-suited. I lost leaving me crippled.

I played at the table for another 90 minutes, and even after all that time, my read on MP1 didn't change. He was definately loose passive, and almost definately an internet qualifier. I am still in disbelief as to how he of all people could put in his entire stack with AJo.

I know some people here are going to defend his call and say, "great read", but against my range of hands that I merely call the original 150 w/, AJo is even money (this range includes, any pair, any suited ace, AKo, AQo, suited connectors down to 54s, suited one gaps down to 64s, and a couple of unsuited broadway hands). If he's even money vs the range of hands I put in 150 chips with, his call for 8,000 more chips during 25/50 blinds is just abysmal.

My overall analysis of this play:
My read on how willing MP1 was to put his tournament life at stake was clearly off.
Given my reads however (that were otherwise correct), I think this play has a significant positive chip equity.
Despite that, there is just too much risk of me going broke during this hand, and I should have given up this edge to avoid missing out on bigger edges later on.
-Thanks for all the insight
-ZJ

[/ QUOTE ]

Other than the very first CC, I'd play AJo the exact same way MP1 did. I don't think I'd have to think too long about calling your push with AJo either. Like yeah, it's "putting your tournament life on the line". Like the only hands he should be afraid of are AQ and JJ, but the pot was so bloated by then, I couldn't see him folding too quickly.

[/ QUOTE ]

next time I call the 4th raise all in preflop w/ AJ will be the first. he called raises three times w/ AJo. he's a donkey.

Re: RESULTS
 

Thank you for sharing a very interesting hand.

I'm surprised that villain's calling range included ajo, and it probably also included 99, almost his whole range to call the initial UTG bet and SB raise. I don't think it takes much to see that ajo is good against MP3 and hero's range, but MP1 deserves tremendous credit for making this call with this hand. It's at least as hard to call this, as it was for Justin to push. It was probably the best play he made all tournament; we should give him some credit.

I'll be looking forward to following many more of your big events; it takes guts to push when you suspect its unclear.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

Any of you guys post a hand against me and describe me as an old man, I'm coming after you.

Re: RESULTS
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Then MP1 did the unthinkable. He flipped over Ace-Jack not-suited. I lost leaving me crippled.
.
I played at the table for another 90 minutes, and even after all that time, my read on MP1 didn't change. He was definately loose passive, and almost definately an internet qualifier. I am still in disbelief as to how he of all people could put in his entire stack with AJo.



[/ QUOTE ]

You're not making yourself clear here. If he's definitley loose-passive, isn't that the kind of player you expect to call a big all-in raise? This seems especially true in situations where he's put some money into the pot first and then raised behind him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Plus he's an internet qualifier, so this may be especially true. Those tournaments are fast, so he's used to being pushed around and having to make marginal calls. And he's used to thinking if he goes bust there's another tournament starting at the top of the hour.

Re: RESULTS
 

Great call by the guy with AJo (and I mean GREAT). I still hate your all-in move here, but cheers for having some balls in a 10K event. Hope it didn't ruin your weekend.

Re: RESULTS
 

I GET A COOKIE!!!!!!!!!!!1111111111111101!