Re: So I\'m the chip leader...SB playalong
 

[ QUOTE ]
The worst that can happen pre-flop is that the BB raises everybody else in which case you've lost a few thousand chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

the worst that can happen POSTFLOP is you go broke because you played this hand preflop and HIT. That being said, I agree with all that you said and as I stated, I call ANYTHING, knowing that my "tourny life" is not on the line because i have him/them covered and you do have a few outs if he is WA.

Re: So I\'m the chip leader...SB playalong
 

Amiller could have about anything. His 2x BB preflop raise and min bet of the flop is either a monster or nothing. And I'd say that it's much more likely it's nothing.

Boutthat's preflop call gives him a pretty wide range. It's 2x BB to call. His flop push doesn't really narrow down his hand range that much. He probably think's hero came along because it was a big pot and he could see the flop relatively cheap. He could be pushing a wide range here including under pairs.

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
499,075,780 games 222.229 secs 2,245,772 games/sec

Board: Ad Ah Jc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 55.8090 % 47.73% 08.07% { AsTs }
Hand 2: 14.1190 % 11.40% 02.72% { 55+, A6s+, KJs+, A8o+, KJo+ }
Hand 3: 19.8196 % 15.92% 03.90% { 77+, A6s+, KJs, A9o+, KJo }
Hand 4: 10.2524 % 08.80% 01.46% { 22+, A6s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, A9o+, KJo+ }
</pre><hr />

I don't even see how it's close or how you possibly recommend folding. You could tighted up BOUTTHAT's range even more and you're still ahead.

I would have pushed preflop because I am the bigstack and nobody seems too interested.

I would have led the flop to build it up.

I would have called BOUTTHAT's push. And even if he happens to have AK,AQ,AJ,JJ I still have 3 outs.

Re: So I\'m the chip leader...SB playalong
 

[ QUOTE ]


I would have called BOUTTHAT's push. And even if he happens to have AK,AQ,AJ,JJ I still have 3 outs.

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you do not have 3 outs against an AJ hand (he already has boat), you need runner runner KK or QQ. you have 1/82 of an out (8 cards out of 45 to hit 1st runner &amp; 3 cards out of 44 to hit 2nd runner). otherwise i agree, you can't fold this hand.

Re: So I\'m the chip leader...SB playalong
 

Boutthat just overbet the pot when the only draw out is a gutshot. It's more likely that Boutthat has a pocket pair besides JJ or is bluffing. You would overbet AK if you were Boutthat? This is a call. Without reads, it isn't close.

Re: So I\'m the chip leader...SB playalong
 

[ QUOTE ]

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
499,075,780 games 222.229 secs 2,245,772 games/sec

Board: Ad Ah Jc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 55.8090 % 47.73% 08.07% { AsTs }
Hand 2: 14.1190 % 11.40% 02.72% { 55+, A6s+, KJs+, A8o+, KJo+ }
Hand 3: 19.8196 % 15.92% 03.90% { 77+, A6s+, KJs, A9o+, KJo }
Hand 4: 10.2524 % 08.80% 01.46% { 22+, A6s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, A9o+, KJo+ }
</pre><hr />



[/ QUOTE ]

These ranges are remarkable.

It would be an incredibly donkish play (even more donkish than the normal donkey plays you see at these tournaments) for MP to push without an Ace or a pair of Jacks. Look at it from his point of view. If he doesn't have an Ace (or Jacks) in his hand, that means that there are 2 aces still out. People often slowplay hands like this if they have the Ace, so he cannot count out you, or the preflop raiser, or the button. If he is bluffing for all of his chips, it has to be one of the stupidest bluffs I've ever seen.

it's a mistake to assume that donkeys just play bad in a random sort of way. I don't see donkeys pushing for all of their chips in this situation. This guy thinks he has the best hand. So you have to hope that he would play A9 or A8 or A7 this way. Otherwise, you are sunk.

When donkeys have an Ace with a weak kicker, they tend to check or call the flop. They are not playing it this aggressive. They call to the river hoping that their hand will hold up.

Re: So I\'m the chip leader...SB playalong
 

Pretend you're BOUTTHAT and you hold Ax. What's your default line when PFR minibets postflop?

Villain isn't going to usually push an Ace. This is Party. Have you ever played in the 109s?

Re: So I\'m the chip leader...SB playalong
 

[ QUOTE ]
Pretend you're BOUTTHAT and you hold Ax. What's your default line when PFR minibets postflop?

Villain isn't going to usually push an Ace. This is Party. Have you ever played in the 109s?

[/ QUOTE ] I'm not saying that I would play it the same as BOUTTHAT. There is NO hand that I am pushing that hard on the flop, given this board. Nonetheless, looking at the betting patterns and the chip stacks and the cards on the board and the preflop action, I believe that he believes he has the best hand. And the only way that he believes that is if he has an Ace or pair of Jacks.

Re: So I\'m the chip leader...SB playalong
 

This is futile. I hope someone else w/ more credibility than myself steps in and tries to convince you that, barring reads, it's a call.

Re: So I\'m the chip leader...SB playalong
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is futile. I hope someone else w/ more credibility than myself steps in and tries to convince you that, barring reads, it's a call.

[/ QUOTE ] We'll see. I will certainly look like an ass if this guy is bluffing or pushing crap.

Re: So I\'m the chip leader...SB playalong
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is futile. I hope someone else w/ more credibility than myself steps in and tries to convince you that, barring reads, it's a call.

[/ QUOTE ] I would like to see that, too. Believe it or not, I am open to the idea that I might be wrong, and posters that I really respect could convince me of that, I think (no disrespect meant to you or anyone else in this thread -- I'm just not as familiar with the people who have posted in this thread so far).

if the really experienced guys say that I am an idiot, I will defer to their expertise and re-evaluate my weak-tightness. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]