Two Plus Two Older Archives - Tired of Getting Pushed Around

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- - Tired of Getting Pushed Around (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=396829)

Re: Tired of Getting Pushed Around

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The reason I am upset about this is that it seems very standard that I get popped on the flop when I'm heads up in a steal situation these days.

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You didn't get the memo? There was a conference among all the big poker sites and they e-mailed all the donks, telling them to do this.

In a multi-way pot, they'll just call down, hoping to catch something, but try to steal their blinds and they go all Gus on you.

Re: Tired of Getting Pushed Around

Well assume that we would always raise an overpair on the turn. After the raise he would be getting ~8:2 to calldown, so it makes sense that we have nothing 20% of the time and an overpair (or TPTK/set/2pair) 80% of the time. This way it makes no difference if he decides to calldown or not since the odds we are bluffing are the same as the effective odds he is getting.

Then on the river, he would be getting ~9:1 to call a raise. So what we do in hand one is something like this...

We raise any ace, ten, straight and the K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on the river. Raising a ten may or may not be correct, but let's just assume that it is. If we raise those 11 cards, it is 10:1 that we aren't bluffing and he is getting 9:1 to call. Not a fun place for him to be in.

Re: Tired of Getting Pushed Around

How is the first hand a steal situation?

I would have 3-bet the flop on the first hand. On the second I think I would fold. Any pair, ace, or KT+ beats you.

Re: Tired of Getting Pushed Around

:grunch:

Hand 1: Good fold.

Hand 2: I wouldn't have raised preflop or even played that hand. I would check it through on the flop.

Re: Tired of Getting Pushed Around

There's nothing wrong. Sometimes you should 3-bet or call and raise the turn. However, you must remember that villain can have just a weak hand, but it's still ahead of yours. I'm convinced that in all of these hands, the villains had two overcards and were playing the same chasing game that you want to play. (Edit: What I had here a moment ago wasn't correct. The second two cases were chasing 6 outs and getting 6:1. It barely works out to barely profitable if you include one more bet on the river. However, they could just as easily be drawing to 3 outs, making it highly UNprofitable.)

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 raises, 5 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, MP1 calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP1 folds.

Final Pot: 5.25 BB

===

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
5 folds, CO calls, Button raises, 1 fold, Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, CO checks, Button bets, Hero raises, CO folds, Button calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button calls.

River: (7.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button folds.

Final Pot: 8.25 BB

===

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero calls, 1 fold, MP1 raises, 6 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (5.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, MP1 calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP1 calls.

River: (6.75 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP1 folds.

Final Pot: 7.75 BB

===

And here's an example of why you should be careful when you *DO* have overcards (especially an ace or king):

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
5 folds, MP3 raises, 3 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets, Hero raises, MP3 calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP3 raises, Hero 3-bets, MP3 calls.

River: (10.25 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP3 raises, Hero 3-bets, MP3 calls.

Final Pot: 16.25 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has Kd 6d (two pair, kings and sixes).
MP3 has Ah Kc (two pair, kings and fours).
Outcome: Hero wins 16.25 BB.

Re: Tired of Getting Pushed Around

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Well assume that we would always raise an overpair on the turn. After the raise he would be getting ~8:2 to calldown, so it makes sense that we have nothing 20% of the time and an overpair (or TPTK/set/2pair) 80% of the time. This way it makes no difference if he decides to calldown or not since the odds we are bluffing are the same as the effective odds he is getting.

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so basically we want to make it breakeven odds for him to call down from the turn so that he isn't gaining anything when he calls down. Does this get better if there's a chance he folds?

Also, on a hand like this, if I decided to play back, I would often 3bet the turn and then check behind on the river UI. Now, at first glance this seems like a good move, because we put in only 2more BB when behind, and 3 when ahead (assuming we win when we hit the river). However, us checking behind on the river changes the odds he had to call down (now 9:1 or something, instead of 9:2). I am thinking that this does not matter, but want to verify that checking behind UI is correct.

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Then on the river, he would be getting ~9:1 to call a raise. So what we do in hand one is something like this...

We raise any ace, ten, straight and the K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on the river. Raising a ten may or may not be correct, but let's just assume that it is. If we raise those 11 cards, it is 10:1 that we aren't bluffing and he is getting 9:1 to call. Not a fun place for him to be in.

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ok, so you lost me a little bit here. I understand the reasoning on each street...we are raising certain hands that would bet him and give him barely breakeven odds to call. We gain a lot when he folds a better hand to a bluff, turning this play from neutral EV to +EV for us.
However, I am still unclear on whether you think we should raise the turn or the river in hand 1. From what I understand, it seems not to make much difference, as either way we have him in a tight spot. Thanks for the help.

Re: Tired of Getting Pushed Around

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Each of these hands look to be worth > 7 outs. We are getting 5.25:1 + implied odds so that should be enough to see a river card. Add in a few bluffing outs and the times that he gives up on the end, and it looks like a straight forward call to me.

Ok so now show me where I went wrong.... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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ok, well, I was thinking around 6 outs each. I don't think implied odds are good for a pair, but for a straight you are detting 2 bets on the river each time, so a turn call is okay. What river cards are you bluff-raising in hand 1? In hand 2 you could maybe bluff raise an A, but that's about it.

Just to clarify, when you said that we need to pop him with air about 20% of the time, did you mean 3bet the turn or raise the river? Also, how did you arrive at 20%? I would never have considered how often we need to raise with air, and am curious why we would.

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i'm guessing it's a game theory kindof thing.

i'm sortof coming into this blind... but raising with air has to be a part of a balanced strategy for maximizing profit -- since otherwise (in theory) villain will always fold to our raises if we always have the goods, whereas we'd like him to call incorrectly. (and conversly, if they think we always have the goods, they'll fold when we have air)

edit - fantam beat me to it and explained it better.

Re: Tired of Getting Pushed Around

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Each of these hands look to be worth > 7 outs. We are getting 5.25:1 + implied odds so that should be enough to see a river card. Add in a few bluffing outs and the times that he gives up on the end, and it looks like a straight forward call to me.

Ok so now show me where I went wrong.... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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ok, well, I was thinking around 6 outs each. I don't think implied odds are good for a pair, but for a straight you are detting 2 bets on the river each time, so a turn call is okay. What river cards are you bluff-raising in hand 1? In hand 2 you could maybe bluff raise an A, but that's about it.

Just to clarify, when you said that we need to pop him with air about 20% of the time, did you mean 3bet the turn or raise the river? Also, how did you arrive at 20%? I would never have considered how often we need to raise with air, and am curious why we would.

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i'm guessing it's a game theory kindof thing.

i'm sortof coming into this blind... but raising with air has to be a part of a balanced strategy for maximizing profit -- since otherwise (in theory) villain will always fold to our raises if we always have the goods, whereas we'd like him to call incorrectly. (and conversly, if they think we always have the goods, they'll fold when we have air)

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yeah, I am kinda starting to get it. Wow, I actually learned something at work today.

Re: Tired of Getting Pushed Around

Yeah I was unclear. Let me try and make it more understandable.

You raise preflop, get called by the BB and are check/raised on the flop. You just call and see a turn and he bets out. It is on you.

- 20% of your turn raises/river bets should be with nothing. 80% should be legit hands.

If you decide to not follow up on the river, you would only raise with nothing ~14% of the time. If you raise with more, people can exploit you by calling and then check/folding the river (since you would never bluff on the end).

- If you just call the turn, you would raise the river everytime you hit something. To balance it, 10% of your river raises would be with nothing. So for a 10 out draw, you would assign one card in the deck to be a "bluffing out". While this technique isn't perfect for LHE, it probably causes more headaches for the other guy as long as you pick a reasonable card. Don't pick something like an offsuit deuce because there is no way that it helped your hand and there is no way that you would have slowplayed something like AA this long.