Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

yep...and I bet against FSU in both those games due to the injuries to their defensive ends and pathetic offense. IIRC, Florida -4 verse FSU was a pick of the week by me.

FSU will have their defense back in full shape for this one and I really do think that little of every team in the Big10 except tOSU.

Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

What I am often guilty of, and others may have noticed this, is a confirmation bias. If I come into a game with ideas, I'll weight the evidence that supports my theory more than those that disconfirm it.

For example, last week I did not weigh in the fact that UGA pummeled LSU last year and that the two teams had not changed much with this years rosters and playing styles. I saw it in researching the game, but pushed this information aside while blowing 300 on LSU. oh well....no one is perfect.

Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

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So how did Sagarin predict the USC/Oklahoma game from last year?

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I don't remember. I think it favored USC by like 1. Why?

Surely you are not planning to argue against Sagarin by pointing out a game where Sagarin's prediction and the actual final margin were a lot different.

Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

If you think tOSU is "awesome" and PSU handled them mid season, has a better record and better ranking, how does PSU not measure up? How can you think so highly of tOSU and not PSU, I'm guessing you didn't see that game and don't want to compare their seasons. I think you are discounting what PSU has done defensively as well. FSU has not faced a better defense with the possible exception of Miami. You make some valid points but are ignoring way too many others.

Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

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If you think tOSU is "awesome" and PSU handled them mid season, has a better record and better ranking, how does PSU not measure up? How can you think so highly of tOSU and not PSU, I'm guessing you didn't see that game and don't want to compare their seasons. I think you are discounting what PSU has done defensively as well. FSU has not faced a better defense with the possible exception of Miami. You make some valid points but are ignoring way too many others.

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Who won that Miami - FSU game?

Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

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If you think tOSU is "awesome" and PSU handled them mid season, has a better record and better ranking, how does PSU not measure up? How can you think so highly of tOSU and not PSU, I'm guessing you didn't see that game and don't want to compare their seasons. I think you are discounting what PSU has done defensively as well. FSU has not faced a better defense with the possible exception of Miami. You make some valid points but are ignoring way too many others.

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Who won that Miami - FSU game?

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Yup. 10-7. Tom I promise I wasn't downing tOSU by comparison. They are a hell of a team and I look forward to them pounding ND in the Fiesta.

Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

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If you think tOSU is "awesome" and PSU handled them mid season, has a better record and better ranking, how does PSU not measure up? How can you think so highly of tOSU and not PSU, I'm guessing you didn't see that game and don't want to compare their seasons. I think you are discounting what PSU has done defensively as well. FSU has not faced a better defense with the possible exception of Miami. You make some valid points but are ignoring way too many others.

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I watched the game. IMO, The better team lost. It happens, especially on the road. The turnover edge played huge. I still think tOSU is better.

Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

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If you think tOSU is "awesome" and PSU handled them mid season, has a better record and better ranking, how does PSU not measure up? How can you think so highly of tOSU and not PSU, I'm guessing you didn't see that game and don't want to compare their seasons. I think you are discounting what PSU has done defensively as well. FSU has not faced a better defense with the possible exception of Miami. You make some valid points but are ignoring way too many others.

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Who won that Miami - FSU game?

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Yup. 10-7. Tom I promise I wasn't downing tOSU by comparison. They are a hell of a team and I look forward to them pounding ND in the Fiesta.

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I am a little nervous about the PSU game. Just because FSU is such an enigma. They get pumped up for good games and play reasonably well. Then other games, they just plain suck. PSU and OSU aren't significantly different in terms of talent IMHO, but something about FSU makes it so I wouldn't be surprised if they came out and played a great game.

As for Notre Dame, I don't expect a blowout, but I wouldn't mind being surprised. I think a lot of that game comes down to how well Troy Smith plays. Notre Dame's defense is a bit suspect, but not awful by any means.

Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

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I watched the game. IMO, The better team lost. It happens, especially on the road. The turnover edge played huge. I still think tOSU is better.

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Geez man you are pretty set on this, I'm having trouble understanding some of your points. Please don't get me wrong tOSU is an damn good team easily one of the best in the country. But PSU was very dominant defensively in that game with the exception of one drive. Of course turnovers played a role, they normally do. They are a big part of the game. Winning teams typically turn the ball over less. I don't understand how that makes PSU a lesser team because they won when they got more turnovers. Penn State was favored, they won, and they are really about one illegit second away from being undefeated. Clear your head man, I think you are remembering the last few years for PSU. Different season. Big turnaround.

Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

oh yeah...I've been underestimating Penn St and fading them all year. This is nothing new. The team has made me eat crow a few times this year, the most memorable was before tOSU game where I said something like "Penn St is just like Ohio State. Their systems, schemes, and personnel are mirror images, except that Penn St is the JV version."

OK so I was very wrong. Stands to reason that I might be wrong again. I just am convinced that Penn St, and the great majority of Big10 teams, are no good this year. The one exception is tOSU, whose defense I absolutely love. If the coaches had discovered the Pittman running attack earlier and did some better play calling with Troy Smith, well...who knows?

I've said earlier, while I love the PSU D, I just cannot erase the last 5 years of PSU offense out of my brain. I just don't see national title type offense. I'm exhibiting an anchoring and adjustment error in my judgment and decision making. I know this, yet stand firmly behind it.