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-   -   AKs cripples me (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=387487)

11-29-2005 01:52 PM

Re: AKs cripples me
 
1) AK vs. 77 on a 266 flop is not a coin flip. You have approximately a 23% chance with AK after missing the flop.

2) I may be wrong, because I don't read poker books, but checking this flop and folding to a small bet from something like AQ is also wrong (as is calling that bet with nothing). I suggest betting small to find out where you stand.

3) I agree, push semi-bluffing early in the tourney is not a good idea.

PFrese 11-29-2005 02:04 PM

Re: AKs cripples me
 
[ QUOTE ]
The problem is that I think I might have played this hand correctly,

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yes, that is the problem! You really did not play the hand correctly. You overbet the flop, causing you to make the pot too big when you were drastically behind. The key to not going broke on AKs is knowing when to get away from it. With flops like this, you want to get away from it if you are beat. If you CB for ~1/2 the pot and he pushes, now you can get away from the hand with most of your stack. But, by betting as much as you did, you ate up a bigger chunk, making it less to call his bet, giving you better pot odds, all the while - you were behind! Not a good thing!! In other words, you created a situation, where you were forced to call, even though you were way behind. Don't do that! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]


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I just thought it was possible I had the best hand at the moment and didn't want to give other overcard hands any free chances to beat me or bluff me out of the pot.

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This one has me puzzled -- You would rather CALL his all in bet now, so that he will not be able to bluff you off later?? That ain't winning poker. Whether you call off your chips with a losing hand, or get bluffed off your chips with a winning hand, makes no differnce, you still got no chips!! And for the record, I would much rather lose chips to a bluff, then call them off to a better hand.

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1) It's okay to go broke with AK. You basically lost a coin flip, there are worse ways to bust out.

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Wrong - it is not a coin flip AFTER the flop. All the money went in, after the flop, which makes this far from a coin flip. Had the money gone in preflop, then it would have been a coin toss. I think at this point, our hereo is a 4 to 1 dog?? Math guys correct me please...


All of this to say - you should have CBed for 1/2 the pot -OR- pushed all in on the flop. If you were trying to push him off his hand, and would call his all in anyway, then by god push them in the pot and MAKE HIM MAKE THE TOUGH DECISION. Instead, he made you make the tought decision. Make sense?

11-29-2005 02:08 PM

Re: AKs cripples me
 
[ QUOTE ]
1) AK vs. 77 on a 266 flop is not a coin flip. You have approximately a 23% chance with AK after missing the flop.


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I said he 'basically' lost a coin flip, ie he had AK vs. 77 before the flop, took a reasonable line on the flop (continuation betting and calling a push when pot-committed with overs and a back-door draw), and ended up losing.

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2) I may be wrong, because I don't read poker books, but checking this flop and folding to a small bet from something like AQ is also wrong (as is calling that bet with nothing). I suggest betting small to find out where you stand.


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I didn't advocate check-folding to a small bet. In fact, I suggested that one advantage to check-calling would be inducing a hand like AQ to bluff with three outs.


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3) I agree, push semi-bluffing early in the tourney is not a good idea.

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Why not? What does early in the tourney have to do with anything?


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