Re: Live 30/60 against 2+2er
 

Lets just assume its a relatively tight button. Granted I'm not often calling 3 cold, but we need to at least consider the possibility of TT, JJ, AJ, AQ, etc (especially those with a spade). Do you really want to give these hands a chance to (correctly?) call one bet on the flop?

I think you might just be overthinking this a bit especially in a 3 way pot where its almost certainly best to raise your hand here on the flop.

-ActionBob

Re: Live 30/60 against 2+2er
 

[ QUOTE ]
What do you think a tight button cold calls 3 with?

I thought AK, JJ, QQ. After that maybe AQ or TT. I think he folds AJ and 99 and below.

Yes I'm in trouble if he catches a two outter but he doesn't have odds and in a previous hand the board was 249J and he had AQ, 3 handed to flop and one of the guy asked if he would have bet the turn would he (tightie) have called (Q came on river) and he said no because he didn't care for 6 outs in that size pot.

To take it one step further, say UTG checks with his ace, I still get same amount if button calls (likely if he calls flop) and UTG does too.

I think the button folds QQ, JJ, TT if I raise on flop. I think he would probably call 2 cold with AK and AQ and probably fold AJ.

So by not raising the flop, yes I agree with you that UTG (2+2er) would fold to the turn raise without an A but I think he has an A here probably 90-95%. BUT, by not raising and letting button call the only hands I think he would AK, AQ, AJ, we can make button's decision hard on the turn with a raise from UTG (2+2ers) bet, or in turn if UTG checks turn we make it hard for UTG to find a call with anything less than an A when button either calls or raises my turn bet.

The button wouldn't even have odds to call for a 2 outter if he has TT-QQ and he knows this.

[/ QUOTE ]

OMG that's terrible. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

It's a fallacy to believe that UTG has an A 90-95% of the time here. It may be obvious after the turn bet and call but at earlier stage you don't know this. It's great that UTG bets out again AFTER both and you the button calls after you three bet preflop. What if he decides to check the turn?

You would be giving the button a very good price to continue drawing. The flop raise is the absolute best play IMO with this situation. You cannot let the button call cheaply after he cold calls your 3 bet preflop.

I'm surprised that you're a winning player, RED.

Re: Live 30/60 against 2+2er
 

Whoops, reread my post. Sounded a little harsh sorry [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I think you're trying to make 1 or 2 more bets at a very high risk to you.

Re: Live 30/60 against 2+2er
 

if you think he put you on JJ-KK you should sigh and call the flop and turn, then pop the river.

Re: Live 30/60 against 2+2er
 

[ QUOTE ]
You cannot let the button call cheaply after he cold calls your 3 bet preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

What had are you putting this 'tight' coldcaller on?

[ QUOTE ]
It's a fallacy to believe that UTG has an A 90-95% of the time here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not if he's played enough with him to get a line on his play.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm surprised that you're a winning player, RED.

[/ QUOTE ]

I sure hope this was meant in jest. I think he explained his thoughts fine.

b

Re: Live 30/60 against 2+2er
 

Whoa. Okay. Big difference. looked like K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Re: Live 30/60 against 2+2er
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's a fallacy to believe that UTG has an A 90-95% of the time here.

[/ QUOTE ]

With the human player reads and after playing with him for many hours I do feel that's the % I would be right on that particle hand. Just that one hand that one instance.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm surprised that you're a winning player, RED.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll just say wow and yippie. I won't really comment on this but I will say this hand is live with player reads that go for many hours on UTG and multiple sessions on the button.

I think I will repeat myself, this is for this one hand, this one instance.

Re: Live 30/60 against 2+2er
 

Hi Sid,

"why would UTG want to bet his Ace hand if he felt that you had JJ,QQ, or KK? If he felt that you had any of those hands, he would let you bet and then checkraise your ass."

Couldn't UTG reason that his flop bet into a pre-flop 3-bettor was suspicious? Might not the bet cause the pre-flop 3-bettor to then raise with JJ, QQ, or KK because he wanted to get a free turn card and/or because he felt he had the best hand? From the bettors' standpoint, he'd also welcome the raise because it would probably get rid of the 3rd guy on a draw rich board. That is, he see the best chance of getting rid of hte 3rd player by betting out. I see lots of guy bets out into a pre-flop 3-bettor when they hit their ace on the flop, reasoning that that ace, plus the 3-bet pre-flop means a big pocket pair for their opponent that isn't aces. And they also suspect they'll be raised, particularly if the opponent is aggressive.

Re: Live 30/60 against 2+2er
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Sid,

"why would UTG want to bet his Ace hand if he felt that you had JJ,QQ, or KK? If he felt that you had any of those hands, he would let you bet and then checkraise your ass."

Couldn't UTG reason that his flop bet into a pre-flop 3-bettor was suspicious? Might not the bet cause the pre-flop 3-bettor to then raise with JJ, QQ, or KK because he wanted to get a free turn card and/or because he felt he had the best hand? From the bettors' standpoint, he'd also welcome the raise because it would probably get rid of the 3rd guy on a draw rich board. That is, he see the best chance of getting rid of hte 3rd player by betting out. I see lots of guy bets out into a pre-flop 3-bettor when they hit their ace on the flop, reasoning that that ace, plus the 3-bet pre-flop means a big pocket pair for their opponent that isn't aces. And they also suspect they'll be raised, particularly if the opponent is aggressive.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dead on with my thoughts.

Re: Live 30/60 against 2+2er
 

The guy could very well bet for all the reasons you state. But I said in my OP that UTG might bet with an ace for a host of reasons including the ones you cite (although IMO, checkraising the flop is the much better play to betting the flop in a 3 way pot. There may well be plays better than checkraising the flop as well but a flop CR beats a flop bet in a 3 way pot. Things get a little murky in a 5 or 6 way pot as now you want to limit the field and a raise from your left assists in this regard. Also the flop 3 bettor with JJ-KK may not bet the flop in a 5 or 6 way pot etc etc...man, that was a long digression...anyway, back to the point...).

But the UTG's reasons to bet the flop don't typically include "I have an ace. Red three bet before the flop and he therefore probably has JJ-KK. I better bet because he might easily check."

That's how I interpreted the OP's thought process. That I don't agree with.