Re: A8s.....river play?
 

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That means both players have to fold when they would have both called for your raise to be a mistake.

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Uh, no. It all depends on what percentage of the time button will cold call, and BB will call, or both fold, or you call and button raises and you can 3 bet, etc.

Here's a little math for the most likely scenarios:

You raise:

Both fold, BB calls = +1 BB (happens 80% of the time)
One calls, BB calls = +3 BB (happens 20% of the time)

3(.2) + 1 (.8) = 1.24 BB from raising

You call:

Both call = +2 BB (happens 10%)
One calls = +1 BB (happens 60%)
Button raises, BB calls, you 3-bet, button calls, BB folds = +4 BB (happens 20%)
Neither call = 0 BB (happens 10%)

2(.1) + 1(.6) + 4(.2) + 0(.1) = 1.6 BB when you call

Of course, the percentage are dependent, but it's a little more complicated than you make it. Adjust the percentages to your opinion of your opponents, but this is my approximation, so calling is the best, with raising a close second.

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no offense dude. but you seem to have skewed the numbers way in favor of calling.

Surely this situation
"Button raises, BB calls, you 3-bet, button calls, BB folds = +4 BB (happens 20%)"
could have happened if we raised the river...

Re: A8s.....river play?
 

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That means both players have to fold when they would have both called for your raise to be a mistake.

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Uh, no. It all depends on what percentage of the time button will cold call, and BB will call, or both fold, or you call and button raises and you can 3 bet, etc.

Here's a little math for the most likely scenarios:

You raise:

Both fold, BB calls = +1 BB (happens 80% of the time)
One calls, BB calls = +3 BB (happens 20% of the time)

3(.2) + 1 (.8) = 1.24 BB from raising

You call:

Both call = +2 BB (happens 10%)
One calls = +1 BB (happens 60%)
Button raises, BB calls, you 3-bet, button calls, BB folds = +4 BB (happens 20%)
Neither call = 0 BB (happens 10%)

2(.1) + 1(.6) + 4(.2) + 0(.1) = 1.6 BB when you call

Of course, the percentage are dependent, but it's a little more complicated than you make it. Adjust the percentages to your opinion of your opponents, but this is my approximation, so calling is the best, with raising a close second.

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no offense dude. but you seem to have skewed the numbers way in favor of calling.

Surely this situation
"Button raises, BB calls, you 3-bet, button calls, BB folds = +4 BB (happens 20%)"
could have happened if we raised the river...

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Yes, I agree, it could happen, but how often does button 3-bet? I say never. Like I said, the percentages are relative depending on the opponents, I was just pointing out that it was more complicated than others were making it out to be.

Re: A8s.....river play?
 

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That means both players have to fold when they would have both called for your raise to be a mistake.

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Uh, no. It all depends on what percentage of the time button will cold call, and BB will call, or both fold, or you call and button raises and you can 3 bet, etc.

Here's a little math for the most likely scenarios:

You raise:

Both fold, BB calls = +1 BB (happens 80% of the time)
One calls, BB calls = +3 BB (happens 20% of the time)

3(.2) + 1 (.8) = 1.24 BB from raising

You call:

Both call = +2 BB (happens 10%)
One calls = +1 BB (happens 60%)
Button raises, BB calls, you 3-bet, button calls, BB folds = +4 BB (happens 20%)
Neither call = 0 BB (happens 10%)

2(.1) + 1(.6) + 4(.2) + 0(.1) = 1.6 BB when you call

Of course, the percentage are dependent, but it's a little more complicated than you make it. Adjust the percentages to your opinion of your opponents, but this is my approximation, so calling is the best, with raising a close second.

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no offense dude. but you seem to have skewed the numbers way in favor of calling.

Surely this situation
"Button raises, BB calls, you 3-bet, button calls, BB folds = +4 BB (happens 20%)"
could have happened if we raised the river...

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Yes, I agree, it could happen, but how often does button 3-bet? I say never. Like I said, the percentages are relative depending on the opponents, I was just pointing out that it was more complicated than others were making it out to be.

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fine point taken.
but if you're going to attempt to apply the supposed legitimacy of math to the topic, try to formulate a feasible comparison.

you can't have tons of action behind you in one case and not the other becuase that dramatically affects the final ev in the model.

"You raise:
Both fold, BB calls = +1 BB (happens 80% of the time)
One calls, BB calls = +3 BB (happens 20% of the time)
3(.2) + 1 (.8) = 1.24 BB from raising "

this i think is reasonable. but the "call" situation should be more like this:

You call:

Both call = +2 BB (happens 30%)
One calls = +1 BB (happens 60%)
Neither call = 0 BB (happens 10%)

.3*2+.6*1= 1.2 bb

whatever i think it's close.
when it's close, i like to raise.

Re: A8s.....river play?
 

I would have folded to the flop bet no flush draw and A may not be good. But now that we are here why not riase the turn as a semi-bluff. We have upwards of 15 outs 8 diamonds, 4 5s, and 3 aces even discounted to 1.5 we still have 12-13 outs large pot I would go for it. I wouldnt think that board hit the preflop raiser so I would try to force the two opponets behind me to fold increasing my chances of winning.

I would have bet or raised the turn

Re: A8s.....river play?
 

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"You raise:
Both fold, BB calls = +1 BB (happens 80% of the time)
One calls, BB calls = +3 BB (happens 20% of the time)
3(.2) + 1 (.8) = 1.24 BB from raising "

this i think is reasonable. but the "call" situation should be more like this:

You call:

Both call = +2 BB (happens 30%)
One calls = +1 BB (happens 60%)
Neither call = 0 BB (happens 10%)

.3*2+.6*1= 1.2 bb

whatever i think it's close.
when it's close, i like to raise.

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How can you totally leave out the "You call, button raises, BB calls, you 3-bet, button calls, BB folds?"

Re: A8s.....river play?
 

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"You raise:
Both fold, BB calls = +1 BB (happens 80% of the time)
One calls, BB calls = +3 BB (happens 20% of the time)
3(.2) + 1 (.8) = 1.24 BB from raising "

this i think is reasonable. but the "call" situation should be more like this:

You call:

Both call = +2 BB (happens 30%)
One calls = +1 BB (happens 60%)
Neither call = 0 BB (happens 10%)

.3*2+.6*1= 1.2 bb

whatever i think it's close.
when it's close, i like to raise.

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How can you totally leave out the "You call, button raises, BB calls, you 3-bet, button calls, BB folds?"

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i think that if they like their hand enough to raise, they usually like their hand enough to 3-bet your raise and for certain will call 2-cold.

i don't think it's absolutely correct to leave it out completely. but i think it's more correct to leave it out completely than to only include it in the case of "calling".

in any case, the possible outcomes are not as important as having a good sense of the probabilities for the ones that are included.

and for the record i don't have a strong opinion on whether its better to raise or call. if i had a slight read that someone behind me liked to bluff on scary boards i'd probably decide to call and hope to lay down the smack if they bluff raised. if i was playing in a suspicious game i'd probably raise because it LOOKS more like a bluff than anything else and i'd probably get more action that way.

Re: A8s.....river play?
 

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BU is 60/0/.8

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...Button raises, BB calls, you 3-bet, button calls, BB folds = +4 BB (happens 20%)


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I really don't think this is the right player to try this against. I don't think he 3bets anywhere near 20% of the time.

Re: A8s.....river play?
 

While most of the discussion seems to be on the river I'd like to discuss the flop. Why not raise this flop? You've got 2 overcards and a backdoor flush giving you about 4 or 4.5 outs with 11.5 SB. Why not raise to try to thin the field if your overcards hit and you may even be able to buy the button here.

Re: A8s.....river play?
 

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Raises...

I like a raise here, if anyone has a 5 they will call and might even re-raise you, flush is pretty well hidden by the fact that you hit it runner runner. There's no guarantee someone behind you will raise to get maximum value for your flush and really going for overcalls may net you an extra BB but could also cost you a BB...

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The fact that someone may have a 5 is why you call. They will raise, allowing you to 3-bet them and BB.

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How do you know the flush doesn't freak them out and all they will do is call whether it be one bet or two? You have absolutely no read on the players behind you so you can make no assumptions about how they will react to your actions. In this case raising pretty much guarantees you 1 more BB and the possibility of more. Calling only guarantees you the current pot size with the possibility of more...against unpredictable unknowns I would have to go with the more direct approach...

Re: A8s.....river play?
 

If someone had a 5 why on earth would they not raise the turn? Even bad players know to do that. If anyting the completed flush draw makes it less likely they would raise it. I don't see how counting on this to be raised behind you makes much sense.