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-   -   Meta-Analysis Project: Help Wanted (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=373167)

splashpot 11-07-2005 03:13 PM

Re: Meta-Analysis Project: Help Wanted
 
[ QUOTE ]
One thought is that eventhough it is only a short time between Nov. 1st and whenever you start, you might be hearing more from people who have started out well than otherwise.

[/ QUOTE ]
I volunteered and I've had a terrible start to Nov. Possibly the worst start to a month I've ever had.

Irieguy 11-07-2005 03:46 PM

Re: Meta-Analysis Project: Help Wanted
 
[ QUOTE ]
One thought is that eventhough it is only a short time between Nov. 1st and whenever you start, you might be hearing more from people who have started out well than otherwise.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a very good point. But selection bias is going to be horrible here no matter what I do.

My goal here is not to run an air-tight statistical analysis. It's to combine data sets from winning players who volunteer before they play their sets (or most of their sets, as you point out.)

What we'll have in a few weeks is a set of data that looks like it will cover well over 20,000 SNGs from a relatively small and somewhat similar group of winning players.

It will give us a better idea of how much money you can make playing SNGs on Party right now than any other way I can think of.

It's just data. It is going to be helpful to me in a number of different ways and I think it will be helpful to others.

Irieguy

microbet 11-07-2005 04:11 PM

Re: Meta-Analysis Project: Help Wanted
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
One thought is that eventhough it is only a short time between Nov. 1st and whenever you start, you might be hearing more from people who have started out well than otherwise.

[/ QUOTE ]
I volunteered and I've had a terrible start to Nov. Possibly the worst start to a month I've ever had.

[/ QUOTE ]
Sincerely, that is highly commendable.

Irieguy 11-07-2005 04:45 PM

Update: Looks good
 
I have 35 volunteers so far, pledging over 22,000 SNGs of data over a 7 week span of time. Now I'm looking to get a pool of over 30,000 SNGs.

My biggest fear is that the people who lose will not report their data. Hopefully, the fact that I will be collecting the data anonymously will help with that.

Thank you all for your help, and thank you in advance for maintaining the integrity of this data set by agreeing to report if you lose.

Irieguy

pergesu 11-07-2005 05:17 PM

Re: Update: Looks good
 
[ QUOTE ]
My biggest fear is that the people who lose will not report their data. Hopefully, the fact that I will be collecting the data anonymously will help with that.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'll probably get broke, but I'll be willing to at least publicly humiliate myself as such.

Irieguy 11-07-2005 05:28 PM

Re: Update: Looks good
 
[ QUOTE ]

I'll probably get broke, but I'll be willing to at least publicly humiliate myself as such.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no public humiliation or celebration. This is important.

I will not know who you are when you report your data. It is important for everyone to realize that I am going to collect this data anonymously. I will only know who the group of players is... not their individual results.

Irieguy

johnnybeef 11-07-2005 05:34 PM

Re: Update: Looks good
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My biggest fear is that the people who lose will not report their data. Hopefully, the fact that I will be collecting the data anonymously will help with that.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'll probably get broke, but I'll be willing to at least publicly humiliate myself as such.

[/ QUOTE ]

aww pergesu, you are just saying that because you suck [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

davehwm 11-07-2005 05:46 PM

Re: Meta-Analysis Project: Help Wanted
 
I don't like the idea of taking different numbers of sets from different groups of people with different skill levels. I don't agree with the assumption that all of these people "play simliar". And this is just the beginning of the many problems with this experiment.

I wouldn't put too much time into it, because I don't think you're going to be able to draw many accurate conclusions from this set of data, honestly.

Indiana 11-07-2005 05:51 PM

Re: Meta-Analysis Project: Help Wanted
 
Thank you davehwm. I've been trying to tell him this but u do a better job with articulating it.

Indy

Melchiades 11-07-2005 05:53 PM

Re: Update: Looks good
 
When you see someone played 100 000 SnG's, won't you know its raptor?


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