Re: Bar Stool Pundits, week 9
 

Let me just say that I dont think the Jets are horrible and they should be able to beat most teams at home. But I also think people dont know how good the chargers are. Anyway Id be really surprised if the chargers lost but not surprised if they dont cover, so I only have the game teased myself so they just have to win.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, week 9
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


The BSP look to one sunday to get good. Instead they go broke.
(For entertainment purposes only) [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] <font color="white"> I'm feeling the spirit of Scalf </font>
6 team parlay, $10 to win $449.35

[/ QUOTE ]

As a noob bettor, I've been asking about the EV of parlays and basically what people have been telling me is that outside of fun bets or correlated parlays, it's not worth it.

This is the textbook "fun bet" that I should place $5 on every week. I wonder how much I would have won if I did that every week.

[/ QUOTE ]
I decided to bet this because I hated the whole board. I was considering a 5 play teaser getting as many 'over the zero' numbers as I could. I just couldn't do it.

Parlays depend on the sport. In hockey, I will parlay large favorites because I don't want to put up the cash. The EV of the parlay depends on the EV of the individual bets. If I like detroit -160 and ottawa -200, and think there is +EV in BOTH lines, then the +EV of the parlay isn't changed much from betting them seperately. What has changed is the variance. I will win less often, but I will lose less when I do lose and win more when I do win. Since they are both favorites, the change in variance is smaller than if they were underdogs. (one of the math wizards can show a proof if they like.)
As for other sports, a lot of books won't give you a true parlay odds for the wager made. For instance a 4 team nfl parlay may pay 10/1. the true parlay odds are 12/1. On a two teamer the payoff is 2.6/1 with the true odds being 2.65/1. As you can see, any +EV on the individual teams is going straight down the drain.

I have a raging headache, so some basic math may be off a little. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

I may have screwed this up for everyone
 

I took 4 BSPs, only one of my picks for real bets. So far, Jets and Bucs aren't looking too good.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits, week 9
 

Its looking good for the BSP. [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

Had to get off the BSP train this week....
 

1: Too many BSP's this week.
2: Some have injury implications.
3: They're spread out all the way to MNF.
4: I'm a big, fat pussy.

Truth is, I'm sure they'll at LEAST push. I just can't do it this week. Damn.

2-3 this week, needing the Pats to cover
 

Still, the worst week for the anti-BSPs this year. Could the tide be turning? Have the BSPs finally figured things out?
Stay tuned for our next episode....

Re: 2-3 this week, needing the Pats to cover
 

[ QUOTE ]
Still, the worst week for the anti-BSPs this year. Could the tide be turning? Have the BSPs finally figured things out?
Stay tuned for our next episode....

[/ QUOTE ]

No, kyro finally put real money down on the side of the anti-BSPs for the first time ever. If there was a prop bet available with "kyro screws over the anti-BSPs," I would have thrown money on that to hedge.