Re: Snakes on a Plane
 

I agree with folding.

Re: Snakes on a Plane
 

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I don't know how to use Excel

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wow. I might have to give you some nerdy excel lessons. people that don't use it have no idea the breadth of tools excel offers and how easy it all is. I seriously use excel for everything

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[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

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I would wager that given your math abitlities jason, unless Josh has some prexisting formulas set up, you might be just as fast w/o excel.

Re: Snakes on a Plane
 

This thread wouldn't be complete without the following.

http://www.chrisnull.com/snake.jpg

Re: Snakes on a Plane
 

definitely do this man, you could use this hand as an example.

Re: Snakes on a Plane
 

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This thread wouldn't be complete without the following.

http://www.chrisnull.com/snake.jpg

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Amazing!

Re: Snakes on a Plane
 

Wow SC, that's HILARIOUS.

Surf

Re: Snakes on a Plane
 

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I don't know how to use Excel

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wow. I might have to give you some nerdy excel lessons. people that don't use it have no idea the breadth of tools excel offers and how easy it all is. I seriously use excel for everything

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As a self-proclaimed computer nerd ( Compsci major, web design on the side as a 2nd job) it saddens me that I haven't used this at all. I'm gonna go muck around in excel right now - hopefully you'll share what you've learned with us come friday?

As for the hand, I'd fold. Sometimes you'll see a super-semibluffed flush draw vs top pair / overpair, but that parlay happens only rarely. I can't wait to do the calcs in excel!

Surf

Re: Snakes on a Plane
 

betting the flop is a mistake. good checkraise. betting the flop accomplishes nothing unless you plan to fold when shown aggression. checkraising allows us to extract value and fold the turn UI when we lead and a player raises.

i dont like folding the turn but thats because i put the opponents on a different hand range then what everyone here seems to be putting them on. to say that this hand isnt post worthy is bullshit, because you can go ahead and assign hand ranges to your opponents and do the calculation yourself, you know how to do that im sure, but youre clearly posting this hand because you arent sure what hand ranges to put the players on.

UTG has played his hand like a probable 1 pair hand, button could have alot of hands and you could be ahead of a good chunk of them.

getting 12:1 if the UTG doesnt cap or 13:2 if he does (not all that often) is more than enough imo to chase your 4 outter with a good chance in having the best hand.


btw, i doubt excel is doing everything josh thinks it does, because hes probably using it to assign hand ranges and do an equity calculation, but what he almost certainly isnt doing is he isnt assigning likelihood to those hand ranges. some hand ranges are more probable than others. to make TT, AT and JQ all equally likely holdings according to combinations is a mistake because TT probably 3bets preflop, and AT probably as well. TT will raise this flop while the others might not. all the other possible holdings for both players have to go through likelihood combinations as well.

to simply say that this hand can be solved in excel is a mistake and youre making the forum worse, not better by making everyone think that. im all for doing equity calculations but not when they are done wrong or are being misused.

Re: Snakes on a Plane
 

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Low limit guy question: Why did you check raise this flop?

I would have bet out because the hand is vulnerable and UTG might raise with overs and fold out button. As it is it seems like you didn't give button a chance to fold or make a mistake by calling.

Also, in a 4 handed game there are a lot of hands that UTG would consider folding to a donk bet with another player to act behind him. Like I said I play at much lower limits so UTG folding might not be realistic for this game.

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I like a flop bet too. on such a draw heavy board against an aggressive opponent there's a good chance he'll raise with overs. I think I like a bet-call, bet-call, check-fold (or bet if he just called the turn) line.

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Check-fold river with 2 pair? Which crack are you smoking? Don't you think UTG will show me JJ-AA more times than he'll show me 88/99/TT/JQ??

Re: Snakes on a Plane
 

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btw, i doubt excel is doing everything josh thinks it does, because hes probably using it to assign hand ranges and do an equity calculation, but what he almost certainly isnt doing is he isnt assigning likelihood to those hand ranges. some hand ranges are more probable than others.

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I'm sure you know what I mean here. make a range of hands, figure out your outs vs each, the number of combos, make some judgment weights for the combos, then do an EV calc.

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