Re: JJ and overcard in big pot
 

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If you really think he has the queen, you should have folded the flop. If you don't, you're good here 95% of the time and should bet for value.

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In poker, you can't think in terms of one or the other being 100% true. I could be wrong, but I think that's what this analysis is saying to do. Not good.

Re: JJ and overcard in big pot
 

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Hypothetical:
25% of the time he has the queen, and calls 100% of the time.
75% of the time, he doesn't have the queen, and calls X% of the time.


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Way off.

Re: JJ and overcard in big pot
 

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I find it much easier to just estimate the hands he'll call me with than it is to take into account what hands he'll call me with AND the probability he has them.

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That's exactly what I'm doing, only on paper [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

It seems like the general consensus is that the odds on him having a queen are high enough not to make this value bet clearly valuable. I'll keep checking here.

EDIT: Though, I shouldn't have been in the pot to begin with.

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Right, the odds he has a queen are considerably higher than 25%. I'd even say they are higher than 50% (meaning no percentage of the time opponent calls down with an inferior hand could make it worth it).

Fold the flop and (given the action to that point) check the river.

Re: JJ and overcard in big pot
 

Blind response

I think you played it well. I would think if he'd had the Q he'd of raised it after the blank on the turn. I think the only street that is tough to decide on is the river. He could be checking it down with Qjunk sooted and hoping it holds. I think I bet this river most of the time. nh