Re: confused AJo
 

I'd probably raise the river and call a three bet and hope SB wasn't slowplaying a straight that he planned to raise on the turn, but when it got raised up behind him he decided to slowplay it a little longer. If SB was slowplaying a Jack, then we probably have him outkicked.

Just calling doesn't look too bad though, as will almost certainly get an over an overcall from the button while a raise might make him fold. Or if he slowplayed a straight, he will three bet it which would stink but be hard to fold to unless SB made one also and capped.

Re: confused AJo
 

I call.
I fear the T8s.

my first post!

Re: confused AJo
 

congrats on your first post

do you think villain flopped a straight and didn't bet at all till the river? i think that's much less likely that a weak J.

Re: confused AJo
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Then why would you raise the river if you are aticipating a 3 bet. Why not go for the over call?

[/ QUOTE ]

why would we overcall?

call, Button overcalls, we win 2 bets
raise = at least 2 bets when first villain calls, good chance at winning a 3rd if he 3-bets

[/ QUOTE ]

Quantify "good chance" please, given that we got turn c/r.

Re: confused AJo
 

That wasn't a C/R, freshman.

Re: confused AJo
 

[ QUOTE ]
I call.
I fear the T8s.
my first post!

[/ QUOTE ]

I make it a habit to respond to all first posts I see. In this case, your first post is a reply to my post. That's like a double.

Unfortunately, no content to add except Good Luck.

11R2a1stP

Re: confused AJo
 

*grunch*

Flop -- you're behind to T8 (flopped straight), a set of 7's, 9's, or J's, or some sort of J9, 97, J7 two pair. otherwise you're ahead.

JJ or 99 would've (one hopes) raised preflop, so probably not those. especially since no one three bets on the flop. and, actually, since no one makes it three on the flop, all of these are unlikely unless it's a "watch my fabulous slowplay" move.

Turn: is a blank. MP1 bet out on flop, but not turn. and doesn't reraise, either. on the other hand, Button comes alive here. Hoping to push some folks out? Spurred by the redraw to a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] flush?

River: SB now comes alive. J9 or J7, two pair from the flop, has you beat here. (as well as the flopped straight or flopped sets--but I'd expect heavier betting from the flop on from those)

Result: Either YHIG, or you're beat by someone who slowplayed it and saved you some bets along the way.

Re: confused AJo
 

I like it. Don't raise the river. You're either getting 3-bet by button, who will never fold a better hand and will nearly always raise this better hand, or he'll fold his counterfeited two-pair.

Re: confused AJo
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Then why would you raise the river if you are aticipating a 3 bet. Why not go for the over call?

[/ QUOTE ]

why would we overcall?

call, Button overcalls, we win 2 bets
raise = at least 2 bets when first villain calls, good chance at winning a 3rd if he 3-bets

[/ QUOTE ]

Alright we didn't 3-bet the turn so we obviously put button on a better hand.

If he has a straight, he's not folding, he's 3-betting.
If he has a boat of any kind he's 3-betting.
If his two-pair was just counterfeited he's going to fold to a raise, but might call out of desperation for just one bet because this is $.5/1.

Add this to the fact that SB is betting into the turn bettor and raiser, and we're not assured to be ahead of him, and I think this river is a call.

Also if three bets are put in on this river we're not winning it often. I wouldn't be thrilled with that prospect.

Re: confused AJo
 

[ QUOTE ]
Nice hand, the river call is the right play since you haven't improved as much as it might appear.

[/ QUOTE ]

yea, that's sort of my thought. by the river you're either WA or WB...raising it here seems like it will cost you more when you are WB than it will reward you when you're WA.

SB is the enigma here. He calls 2 bets preflop (well, 1 1/2, but still), then calls 2 on the flop, then calls 2 more on the turn. *Then* bets out on the river. Maybe J9? and afraid of a set?

T8 is MUBS, que no? That hand should've been jamming the pot from the flop on, I'd think.

I don't know what other hand would compel SB to keep calling 2 and play OOP all the way to the river, only to come alive then.