Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

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Indy allowing 4.5 yds/rush. While their pass D is clearly elite, keep in mind almost no team has been able to run to stay in the game against Indy so has turned immeidately to the pass.

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Playing this prop tonight,

Corey Dillon total rushing yards under 80.5

He's not %100 and hopefully the "trend" will continue and the Pats will have to turn to Brady to keep em in the game.

Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

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Indy allowing 4.5 yds/rush. While their pass D is clearly elite, keep in mind almost no team has been able to run to stay in the game against Indy so has turned immeidately to the pass.

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Playing this prop tonight,

Corey Dillon total rushing yards under 80.5

He's not %100 and hopefully the "trend" will continue and the Pats will have to turn to Brady to keep em in the game.

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If the Colts go up early, this is a fantastic bet. However, Dillon has been held out of practices and even games, to an extent, to be ready to play tonight. If the Pats hold a lead or keep it close throughout, I expect Corey to get 81+.

I might hedge Pats ML with Corey minus 80.5.

Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

Okay I got 2 units on Indy -3 and over 46.
The line is now -4.5 and 49.
Should I middle this? Or should I put more units on Indy before the line moves more.

Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

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Okay I got 2 units on Indy -3 and over 46.
The line is now -4.5 and 49.
Should I middle this? Or should I put more units on Indy before the line moves more.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no value in trying to middle the 4. Especially if you laid -110 on the 3 side. And you definitely don't want to bet more IND at -4.5. That is a big 1.5 point difference.

craig

Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

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Okay I got 2 units on Indy -3 and over 46.
The line is now -4.5 and 49.
Should I middle this? Or should I put more units on Indy before the line moves more.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah...Just have a beer and watch the game...and enjoy a whipping!

Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

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[ QUOTE ]
Okay I got 2 units on Indy -3 and over 46.
The line is now -4.5 and 49.
Should I middle this? Or should I put more units on Indy before the line moves more.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no value in trying to middle the 4. Especially if you laid -110 on the 3 side. And you definitely don't want to bet more IND at -4.5. That is a big 1.5 point difference.

craig

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Technically it's a soft middle because you'll push one side while winning the other if the game lands on 3. Personally I would do it but that's because I like the Pats.

Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

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Okay I got 2 units on Indy -3 and over 46.
The line is now -4.5 and 49.
Should I middle this? Or should I put more units on Indy before the line moves more.

[/ QUOTE ]


There is no value in trying to middle the 4. Especially if you laid -110 on the 3 side. And you definitely don't want to bet more IND at -4.5. That is a big 1.5 point difference.

craig

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Technically it's a soft middle because you'll push one side while winning the other if the game lands on 3. Personally I would do it but that's because I like the Pats.

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If he is laying -110 though there can't be very much value there.

craig

Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

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[ QUOTE ]
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Okay I got 2 units on Indy -3 and over 46.
The line is now -4.5 and 49.
Should I middle this? Or should I put more units on Indy before the line moves more.

[/ QUOTE ]


There is no value in trying to middle the 4. Especially if you laid -110 on the 3 side. And you definitely don't want to bet more IND at -4.5. That is a big 1.5 point difference.

craig

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Technically it's a soft middle because you'll push one side while winning the other if the game lands on 3. Personally I would do it but that's because I like the Pats.

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If he is laying -110 though there can't be very much value there.

craig

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You can get Pats +3.5 +115/120 on Pinny/Matchbook...harmless +EV flier on a nice number.

Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

someone do this math quickly please, im cooking dinner and dont have time to invest [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

i want to 'outside' branch's recieving yardage

Under 66.5 +146
Over 75.5 -125

If his recieving yardage is 67-75 yards I lose two units, otherwise I gain +0.21.. I know these are bad plays but I really want to try one. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] Unit will be small I promise

Anyways, where should I 'outside' this.. even money leaning under and over as I have no favorite.

thanks! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: * Official MNF 11/7 Indy @ New England
 

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someone do this math quickly please, im cooking dinner and dont have time to invest [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

i want to 'outside' branch's recieving yardage

Under 66.5 +146
Over 75.5 -125

If his recieving yardage is 67-75 yards I lose two units, otherwise I gain +0.21.. I know these are bad plays but I really want to try one. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] Unit will be small I promise

Anyways, where should I 'outside' this.. even money leaning under and over as I have no favorite.

thanks! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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This is REALLY a lousy bet. The math points towards a risk of $237 to win a little over $9. i.e:

Bet $137 on over 75.5
Bet $100 on under 66.5

If it is under 66.5, you win $9. If it is over 75.5, you win $9.60. 67-75, you lose $237. Stay far far away.