Re: Running it Twice.....what are the dis/advantages???
 

I seems to me that you would need a lot of dead money in the pot for this to be a good deal.

When is running it twice a good deal and when is it a bad deal?

It seems like you are trying to split up the dead money that is in the pot. If I was playing above my bankroll, I would take this deal in a heartbeat.

Re: Running it Twice.....what are the dis/advantages???
 

The trouble with this is that there just aren't enough all in situations, but they account for a huge amount of your results. You can really be bent over by variance if your allins preform a standard deviation below what you'd expect... Granted, I'm a big pussy when it comes to nl cash games, but still I think you'd have to be significantly over bankrolled for this scenario to not be somewhat attractive.

Re: Running it Twice.....what are the dis/advantages???
 

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I seems to me that you would need a lot of dead money in the pot for this to be a good deal.

When is running it twice a good deal and when is it a bad deal?

It seems like you are trying to split up the dead money that is in the pot. If I was playing above my bankroll, I would take this deal in a heartbeat.

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Why is this such a difficult concept? Instead of being in one pot for, say, $100 you are just saying let's play the exact same hand twice for two $50 pots. So if you have 70% equity in the $100 pot ($70) then you have 70% in both $50 pots ($35 each = $70). No change in equity (EV). However, since you are now playing two smaller pots instead of one larger pot, the discrete outcomes are +100, +0, and -100 instead of only +100 and -100. Therefore the variance is going to be lower.

To see an illustration, roll a die and draw two graphs. In the first one, go up if you get 4-6 and down if you get 1-3. In the second graph go up if you get 5-6, down if you get 1-2, and just stay flat if you get 3-4. Roll the die 20 times and draw the two graphs. Obviously in expectation neither graph will go anywhere. But you should see that the variance in the first graph is much greater than in the second one.

So the only reason to run it twice or not is if you want or dont want variance. Basically, if you can stand the variance better than your opponent then you don't want to run it twice because you are then punishing your opponent for his aversion to variance. If you can't stand the variance then you will want to run it twice.

Re: Running it Twice.....what are the dis/advantages???
 

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Question: when you run it twice, do you shuffle the first turn/river back into the deck before running it the second time? Without replacement, the EV will change.

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Incorrect Sir, the EV *over* however many times you run it will never change, although the EV from one particular run will change, over the full amount of times you run it, the average is the EV of just running it once.

Re: Running it Twice.....what are the dis/advantages???
 

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If you are a good player and can handle variance, then you never want to run it twice.

in addition to the other points, it also encourages your opponents to play back at you more since they know their variance will be lower, and it also lets them see what hands you are playing giving some info away.

-g

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I have to disagree with this. There are times when you want to make deals and times when you dont. If you are known as a player who doesn't make deals, players may be more passive with you, if you do make deals, players may be more willing to shove with you on the flop with their draw. Whichever turns out to be good who knows, but if I only have 1 buyin and have to make it last, then i'm going to be happier shoving with the guy who wants to run it 3 times. Who this profits depends on who has the value.

Re: Running it Twice.....what are the dis/advantages???
 

I understand the HOW, I am just working on the WHY, WHO and WHEN.

If I can't stand the variance, then I shouldn't be in the game. Maybe that answers my own question, you run it twice or three times to keep someone in the game that shouldn't be in there in the first place.

Re: Running it Twice.....what are the dis/advantages???
 

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Question: when you run it twice, do you shuffle the first turn/river back into the deck before running it the second time? Without replacement, the EV will change.

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Incorrect Sir, the EV *over* however many times you run it will never change, although the EV from one particular run will change, over the full amount of times you run it, the average is the EV of just running it once.

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I think this is right. I tried to come up with a counterexample and couldn't.

Re: Running it Twice.....what are the dis/advantages???
 

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Question: when you run it twice, do you shuffle the first turn/river back into the deck before running it the second time? Without replacement, the EV will change.

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Incorrect Sir, the EV *over* however many times you run it will never change, although the EV from one particular run will change, over the full amount of times you run it, the average is the EV of just running it once.

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I think this is right. I tried to come up with a counterexample and couldn't.

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An obvious way to see that Ribbo is correct is to simply imagine running it as many times as there are cards left in the deck (of course then you would also want to know all the dead cards to calculate the percentages correctly). Then you would always win exactly the EV of dealing it once but with zero variance. I think this is a fairly clear way to show that the variance goes down while the EV stays the same as you increase the number of cards dealt out without shuffling.

As an interesting side point, without shuffling appears to decrease variance faster, since in the all card limit you get a true zero variance situation. If you were to deal out the same number as the remaining cards, but shuffle every time in between, then obviously you wouldn't have a true zero variance result.

Notice that the best deal you could make as the favorite EV wise would be if you could get your opponent to split according to winning percentages and round off to favor the true favorite in the hand. This will obviously increase your EV. This offer could be called the variance reduction tax.

Re: Running it Twice.....what are the dis/advantages???
 

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but if I only have 1 buyin and have to make it last,

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Then that doesn’t meet the criteria I noted of being able to handle variance

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players may be more willing to shove with you on the flop with their draw

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Yes, it can cut both ways. But in general I think you would prefer more passive opponents rather than ones will aggressively play back at you, and make you guess whether they have draws or the nuts.


Someone ate their happy pill today – I think this is the first post you’ve disagreed with me where I haven’t made any “stupid assumptions” or “given horrible advice”. I’m very proud of you.

Perhaps its because the above advice is not mine, but is stolen from Ray Zee.

-g

Re: Running it Twice.....what are the dis/advantages???
 

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Why is this such a difficult concept? Instead of being in one pot for, say, $100 you are just saying let's play the exact same hand twice for two $50 pots. So if you have 70% equity in the $100 pot ($70) then you have 70% in both $50 pots ($35 each = $70).

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Absolutely false.

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No change in (EV).

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Wow. Magically, the correct end result.

Your explanation is typical of the idiots who think it is "obvious" the EVs are the same. If you initially think it's obvious, you are probably an idiot. If you don't think it's obvious, think it over, and then realize it was obvious, you are probably fairly intelligent.