Re: 10/20 stars deep
 

[ QUOTE ]
TAG didnt reraise, a LAG did, and in the stars 10/20 game w/ those stacks, every1 is quite LAG- i just mean he was quite a bit tighter than most. I think that his range is something like:

flush: 50%
AA/kk/AQ: 10%
kq/lowr Q: 2%
bluff: 35%
fullhouse/quads: 3%

w/ those numbers a call is quite profitable...

[/ QUOTE ]

so 37% of the time you're splitting or winning getting 2.4-1 from the pot and this is profitable how?

Re: 10/20 stars deep
 

maybe you're correct to call the pf raise, but I don't and since I'm never in that position I wouldn't really need to know what to do. Probably check/fold the river since there are exactly zero hands you beat besides a bluff. If he's betting a worse queen he is insane.

Re: 10/20 stars deep
 

This sounds very plausible - unless your read on villan is horribly wrong, I dont see anything you beat here

Re: 10/20 stars deep
 

[ QUOTE ]
so 37% of the time you're splitting or winning getting 2.4-1 from the pot and this is profitable how?

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this a joke post?

Re: 10/20 stars deep
 

wewps, had it backwards

Re: 10/20 stars deep
 

[ QUOTE ]
You want to raise and blow him off his flush b/c you both have deep stacks?

or are you thinking why would he value bet this river and offer you the opportunity to take the pot away from him since he doesn't have a boat or quads.

Raise to 4000 and he folds

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes sense, but you have to make the leap and assume that he'll give you credit for a boat here after you've checked to him 3 times. I don't see that many players willing to check the river after they've missed their turn check-raise. But of course, if you "know" he'll give you credit then check-raising big makes sense.

RESULTS
 

I pushed, he folded. I think this was clearly the best line, i was just curious how many people would even think of this play. Simply wanted to know how many people would think of this, and then how many of them would think it was the best line. I think just making up a hand range for him (mine was a complete guess). It becomes a very profitable push vs. most opponents (unless they debate a call w/ KK in this spot).

Re: RESULTS
 

[ QUOTE ]
I pushed, he folded. I think this was clearly the best line, i was just curious how many people would even think of this play. Simply wanted to know how many people would think of this, and then how many of them would think it was the best line. I think just making up a hand range for him (mine was a complete guess). It becomes a very profitable push vs. most opponents (unless they debate a call w/ KK in this spot).

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a limit player, I've barely played no-limit and I don't read this forum much. That said, I think a push is bad given the range you've stated.

So let's compare pushing vs. calling (ignore fold because calling is clearly better than folding). So, when he has a worse hand, we win the pot regardless, no difference. For now, just forget the set and quads (you lose ~$130 extra by pushing instead of calling).

What really matters are the times he has a flush. If we call, we lose $1000, end of story. If we push, he has a decision. First of all, what is his flush? With you having the K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and the T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] being on the board, there aren't a whole lot of flushes left. AQs, AJs, QJs is about it. What else does he call 2 raises with preflop? Maybe 76s. So let's say they're all equally likely.

Now, from his perspective what hands do you push with on the river? A bluff, QQ, TT(probably doesn't get this far) and maybe the A-high flush? So let's say he folds 76s and QJs because he's worried about both the full house and the bigger flush. AQs you'll never convince me he's folding. 1 combination of QQ is about all you can have that he loses to and he beats a bluff or the K-high flush. AJs is close but I wouldn't be counting on him folding it too often. If he only calls with AQs, then the push has EV = 0.75*$2430 + 0.25*(-$5462) = $457 (or $1457 compared to calling.) If he calls with both AQs and AJs, EV=.5*$2430 + 0.5*$(-5462) = -$1516 (or -$516 compared to calling.)

So I guess if he folds AJs, then your push is good. I wouldn't count on that, I think it calls more often than not. Also, what if 76s isn't in his preflop calling range? What if he has a set/quads a few extra percent of the time? QQ, 88 and TT might all be played the way he did. What if calls with QJs too? Against a fairly unknown I don't think the push is good.

Steve

P.S. Hopefully this gets replies even though it was posted post-results...

Re: RESULTS
 

Personally I like the push. I don't put the guy on the nuts based on how he played the hand, and with deep stacks, a $5k call isn't an easy thing, especially when it's so aggressive on the river.

Of course, if he has your balls. Whoops! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]