Re: $109 Party - Tough Situation - Er, I think...
 

Preflop: A lot of 2+2ers would fold, but I think that is too weak tight. You are in decent position, and are being offered good pot odds. A big pot that you win now can let you dominate your opponents later on. Good spot to do some prospecting.

Flop: The pot is 70, why would he bet 150? What could he possibly have?
1. Just an EP bluff, as the flop looks scary a lot of the people in the hand. If it is, the bet is too big to make this profitable, and the player is a bit of a donk. Best move, push over the top to take the pot now, and isolate the bluffer.
2. A hand that hit the pot somewhat, but definitely whants to take it down NOW. Ex. Pair and OESD
You are ahead of anyone with 7s or 8s, and behind 9s. If you are up against nines, you have flush outs. Pair +OESD is probably not folding to a push and you are a favorite against the range. So Push, and get yourself a powerful stack. Also, he may fold fearing a straight.
3. 2 Pair or set who wants draws to fold. He may fold to a push, but probably will make an angry call. You are pretty close to even VS the two pair range. So go ahead and put your chips in there. If you can build a big stack now, you can bully your opponents and really control the table.
4. Flopped a straight: I don't think this is very likely. Most people with that big of a hand are worried about creating a big pot. The bet is too big for him to be going for a bet/3bet. The most likely villian response to flopping a straight is a checkraise. If he has a straight, decide the likelyhood that you can stack him if you make the flush. After that calculate your implied odds and call/fold.

Looking at all of these possibilities, and which are most likely, I put 1-15% 2-30% 3- 50% and 4. 5%.

Villians have a tendency to call minraises, so the semi bluff loses a lot of value unless you push.

That is my decision, in this spot, Hero pushes all in over the top.

Edit: Now you made me look silly posting results just before I got my long winded reply in.

Re: $109 Party - Tough Situation - Er, I think...
 

Haha. Sorry about that - we must have hit "submit" right around the same time. Thanks a lot for the analysis, though!

Re: Results...
 

[ QUOTE ]
the other guy in the hand, who called my initial raise, was also on a club draw, leaving me with two less outs.


[/ QUOTE ]
Even worse is that the set eliminates your Ace and Eight draws, and will improve to a full house close to 40% of the time, leaving you drawing dead. Ouch.

All those outs can sure disappear fast...


[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Results...
 

Late in a tournament= easy push

Early in a tournament= fold preflop

Re: $109 Party - Tough Situation - Er, I think...
 

WOW, I am kinda surprised with people's responses here, especially insinuating it's weak tight to fold...?

I think what people are realizing is that the crux of the problem is your read on villain. Despite having no reads before the hand began, the 2x pot is a clue to something.

In any case, the real power of pair + flush draw hands are their fold equity, just like with AK pre flop. You prefer to win chips without a showdown; however, if called you are normally a slight favorite or slight dog, occasionally way ahead or behind. Now, how many of you would want to get TT vs AK allin pf at the start of every sng if you had the choice? It's a larger favorite with 56.5% equity than this flop that "hit me perfectly!!!" If A8s is against even the lowly 92o it just has 53.0% equity, and what worse hand can you reasonably expect to face? We call the first situation a "coin flip" somehow when it's not at all.

So... back to your read. Does it really say you have fold equity here? I guess that's up for debate. However, 2x pot leads me to think strength instead of donk overbet. I disagree with people saying sets or straights would be smart to "build the pot" when neither are safe out of position here. Yet, even if it is a good or bad player, both appear likely to call a push. So ultimately, if you expect a call and still prefer to push over the top here, well, you might as well be eager to get allin with pairs vs AK early. For some players that may be best, but I think you can find superior +EV edges later.

Some tangent thoughts:

With either a set or straight, I could make this bet, checkraise allin, or just open shove. It's similar to the concept with Ed Miller's latest magazine article. If they have nothing, well, they would have folded anyway. Every so often - in fact, I might say regularly - you get a call from a drawing hand like A8s that is secretly well behind in a huge pot that started out tiny. This prevents you from overestimating your ability to fold when you get sucked out on a later street AND from overestimating the amount you can extract on future streets. This is especially so with the number of scard cards: any 5,6,T,J makes a four-straight; any 7,8,9 pairs the board; and of course any club completes the flush. All of those cards add up to about half the deck, so I would get it allin asap with any monster holding here.

Re: $109 Party - Tough Situation - Er, I think...
 

I would just push in on the flop! You have top pair and a flush draw, get those chips in there first!