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-   -   Canterbury 8/16, Preflop question (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=350159)

Bob T. 10-04-2005 02:07 PM

Re: Canterbury 8/16, Preflop question
 
Last I checked we needed 22:1 to draw to our set past the flop. it's unlikely we'll be getting those odds

Well, I was assuming that the preflop raise would increase the possibility that the flop would get checked through, but you should count the pot, before you say that. If 8 see the flop, and an early position player bets out, you will most likely be getting 22-1 or thereabouts to see the turn. Additionally, if you are closing the action, the implied odds, let you drop a little below the 22-1, down to about 17-1 to see the turn, and you will certainly be getting that depending on where the flop bet comes from.

W. Deranged 10-04-2005 02:19 PM

Re: Canterbury 8/16, Preflop question
 
I raise here but there are reasons why calling might be better (you keep the pot smaller and maybe encourage less chasing and/or encourage your opponents to make worse calls later on if you hit a good flop).

My primary reason for raising is that raising is fun. I think it actually is a little better for value, but BigEndian is right that it is not all that crucial really as 99 is going to need to improve that vast majority of the time to win against a 5+ field.

EgoSlasher 10-04-2005 02:20 PM

Re: Canterbury 8/16, Preflop question
 
[ QUOTE ]
Well, I was assuming that the preflop raise would increase the possibility that the flop would get checked through, but you should count the pot, before you say that. If 8 see the flop, and an early position player bets out, you will most likely be getting 22-1 or thereabouts to see the turn. Additionally, if you are closing the action, the implied odds, let you drop a little below the 22-1, down to about 17-1 to see the turn, and you will certainly be getting that depending on where the flop bet comes from.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's possible but doesn't seem like a strong enough justification to raise 5 people with the blinds to follow. There's a lot of boards where players are going to lead into you even with the preflop raise. Also, it's possible that with 5-7 players in the pot you'll be facing a bet and a raise on the flop and having to call 2 bets cold which will kill your set odds for the turn.

Aces McGee 10-04-2005 02:20 PM

Re: Canterbury 8/16, Preflop question
 
[ QUOTE ]
The button has next to no value in this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please. Having position is always an advantage.

Never mind the fact that you may get an extra chance or two at spiking your set.

-McGee

Aces McGee 10-04-2005 02:22 PM

Re: Canterbury 8/16, Preflop question
 
[ QUOTE ]
it's possible that with 5-7 players in the pot you'll be facing a bet and a raise on the flop and having to call 2 bets cold which will kill your set odds for the turn.


[/ QUOTE ]

I cannot remember a scenario in which I raised preflop, there was no further preflop raising, and I was facing a bet and a raise by the time it got back to me on the flop.

-McGee

SeaEagle 10-04-2005 02:39 PM

Re: Canterbury 8/16, Preflop question
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The button has next to no value in this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please. Having position is always an advantage.

Never mind the fact that you may get an extra chance or two at spiking your set.

-McGee

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm pretty sure I said "next to no" value. It's not that there's zero value, it's that there's very little value when you're drawing to a big hand. If you make your set or flop an overpair, you don't care that much of button is behind you or not. Likewise if you flop overcards and there's action in front of you, the fact that button will still get to act after you fold probably won't concern you.

With something like AJ, having the button is worth a ton. When you're drawing to set, having the button is almost valueless.

And we can somewhat quantify how much seeing the free turn card is worth - you will make a set (and win the pot, we assume) 4% of the time that you see a free card. That's not going to be enough to justify a raise. Besides, if you want to put in a single bet to see the turn, you'll probably be able to put it in on the flop anyway.

BigEndian 10-04-2005 03:36 PM

Re: Canterbury 8/16, Preflop question
 
Ego, this is a commonly known tactic. It is also used as a contributing argument for a raise along with a the fact that a hand such as a small to mid pair already has good value in a lot of situations before the flop. It's a play worth putting in your playbook.

- Jim

baronzeus 10-04-2005 03:56 PM

Re: Canterbury 8/16, Preflop question
 
i think not raising this would be ----------EV

private joker 10-04-2005 04:16 PM

Re: Canterbury 8/16, Preflop question
 
I limp this. Since it's going to be 7-handed minimum, 99 is a hand that's going to need to improve to win. With this many players in, it's usually going to need to flop a set or it's done. So encouraging the CO and Button to stick around isn't too bad at all; just padding for when we flop a set. Again, this is the difference I've noticed between live and online. Online it's a raise; live it's a limp.

Aces McGee 10-04-2005 04:49 PM

Re: Canterbury 8/16, Preflop question
 
Don't we often raise smaller pocket pairs in late position after limpers in order to tie people to the pot if we flop our set? If this hand definitely needs to improve to win, why is this any different?

-McGee


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