Re: Russian Roulette for $1 Million?
 

[ QUOTE ]

Great thread and poll. Please post more often.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, I realize now that I am the jerk who didn't see the other two threads about this. I apologize for clogging up the forum with a repetitive topic. Mods, please delete/lock this thread at your earliest convenience

Re: Russian Roulette for $1 Million?
 

There should be "I would never even consider this for any amount of money and it's not even close" option.

Edit: I should say at this point in my life. If I were terminally ill or really old, I'd be all up ons.

Re: Russian Roulette for $1 Million?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[censored] I cant do math:
Per Spin: +833,333.33 - infiniti

right?

[/ QUOTE ]

You life is not worth an infinite amount of money.

Let's say you drive to work in a car. Why go to work today for $200 (or whatever) if driving in a car increases your expectation of death .00001%?

$200 * 99.99999 + -infinity * .00001 = -infinity.

You apparently should never leave a bomb shelter.

Re: Russian Roulette for $1 Million?
 

those who would not play for any amount of are seriously mistaken and or stupid. If for no other reason then when you die you can have the money sent to feed all the starving children in africa that would save thousands of lives. Although a million may be too low, no amount of money is just retarded.

Re: Russian Roulette for $1 Million?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Great thread and poll. Please post more often.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, I realize now that I am the jerk who didn't see the other two threads about this. I apologize for clogging up the forum with a repetitive topic. Mods, please delete/lock this thread at your earliest convenience

[/ QUOTE ]

it's ok... I don't mind repeating threads just because it's easy to miss some. The search function is pretty hard sometimes anyway.

Re: Russian Roulette for $1 Million?
 

You can put an expected value on someone's life. But for most people the EV of the rest of their life is much greater then the deal offered. This is neg EV situation, therefore you should pass.

If I hypothesize 80 more years of life and lets say I think I'll make an average of 200k/yr of that, thats 16 million. For a chance to make 1/6 of that ~(around 3 million) 5 times and die once I guess I'd do it.

so yeah, if the deal was 3 million, I'd do it, but anyting less and it's a raw deal!

Re: Russian Roulette for $1 Million?
 

There has been a lot of research done in this field by economists. Here is a short summary of it. This is not a great summary but the first I found by searching.

It doesnt give an exact amount, but I've heard most summary studies put it at a bit over 10 mil for the median person.

I would guess many people will try to make the arguments found in the above link and fail before this thread dies. I hope this is not true, and this is the last post.

Re: Russian Roulette for $1 Million?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[censored] I cant do math:
Per Spin: +833,333.33 - infiniti

right?

[/ QUOTE ]

You life is not worth an infinite amount of money.

Let's say you drive to work in a car. Why go to work today for $200 (or whatever) if driving in a car increases your expectation of death .00001%?

$200 * 99.99999 + -infinity * .00001 = -infinity.

You apparently should never leave a bomb shelter.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your logic is flawed. That's risk a basically have to take. I'm essentially "not bankrolled" for the varience of playing the russian roulettle game.

Say you saw a really fishy 300 game that you know you would be a winner in. If your bankroll was 25BBs would you take a shot? There are different things to consider other than strict EV.

Yes, driving a car may be -inv EV, but I'm bankrolled for the risk since the varience is incredibly low and i'm shotgunning shorterm variance and locking up the win [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: Russian Roulette for $1 Million?
 

[ QUOTE ]
those who would not play for any amount of are seriously mistaken and or stupid. If for no other reason then when you die you can have the money sent to feed all the starving children in africa that would save thousands of lives. Although a million may be too low, no amount of money is just retarded.

[/ QUOTE ]

I totally agree, people who won't regularly risk killing themselves at 5-1 odds are [censored] retards. The value of life is infinite, people who say 'how do you justify driving to work etc, 0.000001% chance of dying blah blah', well it's like this, don't move ever - risk of dying 100%.

Mack

Re: Russian Roulette for $1 Million?
 

[ QUOTE ]

Yes, driving a car may be -inv EV, but I'm bankrolled for the risk

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't matter how bankrolled you are. -EV is -EV. You shouldn't take it.