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-   -   BK and I disagree (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=346721)

Paluka 09-29-2005 11:55 AM

Re: BK and I disagree
 
[ QUOTE ]
But even if it was, we all still benefit by clearly stating and understanding all the reasons for betting or checking.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree completely.

09-29-2005 12:35 PM

Re: BK and I disagree
 
Just wondering:

If what you say about the line-up is true, why did you raise preflop? What good did it for you?

Benjamin 09-29-2005 12:39 PM

Re: BK and I disagree
 
[ QUOTE ]
If you are favored to have the best hand at the moment then given the texture of the board (the fact that it's unlikely for someone to have two overcards +guthshot or better if they don't have a pair. If one of them has a flush draw well that sucks

[/ QUOTE ]

There were 3 limpers and the blinds called a single raise. I wouldn't say it's particularily unlikely that someone has 67, 68, or 78 for a gutshot +overs or better. Also with 6 opponents a flush draw is not particularily unlikely.

If, as BK says, SB is unlikely to raise overs, and you are unlikely to get more than 1 fold, I think I like the check behind. Against a field this big 33 is unlikely to have an equity advantage. If the scenario is like Schneids says and you are somewhat likely to get a raise from overs by the SB and you are likely to get several folds, then that changes things quite a bit obviously.

One scenario below where the best draw is a gutshot + overs and 33 is a dog:

3c 3d 98 16.47 488 82.02 9 1.51 0.167
Qc Ah 116 19.50 448 75.29 31 5.21 0.216
8c 7d 125 21.01 456 76.64 14 2.35 0.216
Td Jh 50 8.40 531 89.24 14 2.35 0.090
Js Kd 90 15.13 491 82.52 14 2.35 0.158
As 9s 21 3.53 538 90.42 36 6.05 0.060
9h 8h 49 8.24 527 88.57 19 3.19 0.093

You have somewhat better than fair share equity, but this example also includes a fair amount of overlap of cards, no flush draw and no pair, so it's a pretty great situation for you. When you include some chance that someone has a flush draw, a 4, a 5 or a pocket pair then things look way worse.

B.

jayheaps 09-29-2005 01:04 PM

Re: BK and I disagree
 
I don't see what betting accomplishes here except building a pot where you can't be ahead and likely given the size can't get any draws or overs to fold. I check this without thinking.

Justin A 09-29-2005 01:15 PM

Re: BK and I disagree
 
[ QUOTE ]
Just wondering:

If what you say about the line-up is true, why did you raise preflop? What good did it for you?

[/ QUOTE ]

"Flop 554 two clubs (hero has 3c). Checked to our hero on the button. "

Luke 09-29-2005 01:51 PM

Re: BK and I disagree
 
BK raised from the CO and "hero" cold called on the button with the pocket 3s.

Luke

B Dids 09-29-2005 01:56 PM

Re: BK and I disagree
 
[ QUOTE ]
I don't see what betting accomplishes here except building a pot where you can't be ahead and likely given the size can't get any draws or overs to fold. I check this without thinking

[/ QUOTE ]

Well.. yeah...

Seems like the correct play hinges on the hero's reads (which may not be BK's reads). Feels like betting the flop works given what Schneids put forth.

Tommy Angelo 09-29-2005 02:34 PM

Re: BK and I disagree
 
I'd bet, for lots of reasons.

1) I might have the best hand.

2) Maybe somebody will fold.

3) Maybe somebody will checkraise with a draw and the hand will right away go to heads up with me last with a pair against a possible bluff which equals easy showdown if I wanna.

4) But here's the main reason. If no one checkraises after I bet the flop, then maybe whoever is still in there on the turn will check the turn to me and I can decide then if I want to bet my pair if I think it's still good, or check it if I think it isn't, and take the infinite odds I am getting to catch a three. (Plus I might pick up a straight draw on the turn as well.) I really like the idea of seeing the turn and river for one small bet. And even if I don't improve, I'll be in position to call down a river bluff if that seems right, or check behind on the river if it comes to that, or maybe even bet the river for value if I get checked to again. Lots of good things can happen on this hand that all start with a flop bet.

Tommy

J.A.Sucker 09-29-2005 02:43 PM

Re: BK and I disagree
 
... and I was gonna just say "bet 'cause that's what you're supposed to do, 'cause that's what feels right." I like what you said better. Good to see you yesterday, boss.

bernie 09-29-2005 02:56 PM

Re: BK and I disagree
 
It's a little easier if it's a rainbow flop.

I'd bet. Anyone folding getting at least 15-1 is folding wrong most likely.

If a non flush card/no A hits you may have to bet again. Or you can take the free card but remember, you're now inducing a bluff on the river. So it may be better to bet the turn and take a free showdown if possible. The turn is where youd be representing a pair more than the flop. They'll probably put you on an overpair to the flop at that point.

It's almost a 'which street do you want for free' deal. Any heat and you're gone.

I think it's close.

b


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