Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
 

no way are you good 2/3 of the time

Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
 

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i put him on A3 and even 44, before 55. i raise, quads over quads......doubtful. so what happened?

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You really think he's raising A3 on the river? C'mon.

Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
 

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i put him on A3 and even 44, before 55. i raise, quads over quads......doubtful. so what happened?

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he had quads.

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play on bad beat jackpot tables next time [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

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that is sick. that wouldn't even qualify for the BBJ though

Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
 

[ QUOTE ]
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i put him on A3 and even 44, before 55. i raise, quads over quads......doubtful. so what happened?

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You really think he's raising A3 on the river? C'mon.

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or 44 for that matter

Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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i put him on A3 and even 44, before 55. i raise, quads over quads......doubtful. so what happened?

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he had quads.

[/ QUOTE ]

play on bad beat jackpot tables next time [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

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that is sick. that wouldn't even qualify for the BBJ though

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oh yeah, lol.

Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
 

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I just call. Really.

GoT

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Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
 

He either has 44 or 55. He has 3 ways of holding 44 and 1 way of holding 55. I think he'd play them both the same with an AF of 2. but see below. He will more likely cap a 3 bet only if he has quads because he'd fear you holding a 5X or 22 hand. So yes, I 3-bet and call a cap because it's more likely he holds 44. The penalty is worse if he holds 55.

If I can put him on 44 or 55
P(44) = 0.75 P(55) = 0.25, how many river bets in excess of the one he's called might I win?

<font color="red"> 3-betting </font>

Let's say he caps here with 44 50% of the time cuz he's aggressive but not stupid.

44: you win 3 BB 50% of the time and 1 BB 50% of the time. So you win average of 2BB when he holds 44 which is 75% of the time. <font color="blue"> +1.5 BB </font>

55: he caps 100%, you lose 3 BB all of the time @ 25%. <font color="blue"> -.75 BB </font>

3 betting has a net expectation of +.75 BB

<font color="red"> just calling </font>
44: you win 1 BB <font color="blue"> +0.75BB </font>
55: you lose 1BB <font color="blue"> -0.25 BB </font>

calling has a net expectation of +.5 BB


Buuuut, if you think his river raise means he's more likely to hold 55 rather than 44, say with 50/50 likelihood the numbers go :

3-bet with him holding 44 : +1BB
3-bet with him holding 55 : -1.5BB
call with him holding 44 : +0.5 BB
call with him holding 55 : -0.5 BB

So I guess, if you can put him on 44 or 55 (I totally rule out A3 when he raises the river) and you think his river raise makes it a bit more likely he holds 55 rather than 44, I think you should call.

uber-caveat : This situation happens so infrequently I don't think it's worth worrying about though (despite this post pretending otherwise) [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] but probably the principle applies for lesser hands eg set over set, frush over frush...

Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
 

Seems like opponent's most likely hands are 44-55. There are 3 ways he could have 44 and 1 way he could have 55. But he might have slowed down at some point with 44. So let's say at this point he is 50% 44, 30% 55, and 20% something else. "Something else" might be a very aggressively played A5s or JJ for instance.

I think it's a raise, but I think it's very close. If you take my numbers, you are going to lose 1 bets 70% of the time, and win 1-2 bets 30% of the time. But winning 2 bets with a reraise is a realistic possibility, versus A5s for instace.

Because of the chance of winning 2 bets, I think it's a reraise. But it's close.

Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
 

Bet the flop.

Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
 

FFS his hand is basically ruined on the river if he has 44. Why would he raise the river with 44 unless he's an idiot? Call.