Re: 10/20: blind defense round 5, part 1 - 33
 

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Additionally, it is doubtful IMO that he would continuation-bet this river which brings in quite a few draws (straight, flush, overcards...). At this point he's expecting me to call after I have quickly called the flop + turn, so his river bet is a value-bet

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Therein lies the flaw of your reasoning.

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I think you may be overestimating the frequency with which these players bluff bet all 3 streets on a dangerous board. The K makes me more likely to call, not less.

Surf

Re: 10/20: blind defense round 5, part 1 - 33
 

yes, the k should make you less likely to call, but you still should call. I think you are underestimating the times this river bet is a bluff. He knows the K is a scary card, why would he stop bluffing now?? Sometimes this bet will be Ax as well, and these guys are sometimes thinking its a bluff, sometimes thinking its for value, sometimes just angry and hitting bet. I'd be very surprised if you weren't good here 1 in 7.