Re: Folding AA on Coordinated Flop...
 

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Capping the flop is horrible with likely the best hand? You don't want to face SB with 3 bets?

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I must say I disagree with Shill's assessment that there is "no indication" we are beat here as this is a fairly passive game. But we should continue. I listed two negative of capping above. You need to realize that there are a lot of turn cards that you are going to be folding on, so you'd prefer as few bets go in as possible at the moment. Also, capping won't force SB out with anything we want him to fold. He'll be getting 11:1+ easily.

Re: Folding AA on Coordinated Flop...
 

I must say I disagree with Shill's assessment that there is "no indication" we are beat here as this is a fairly passive game.

What I mean is that we don't know if anyone has a straight or a set. If those hands aren't out there, we have to press on. We can fight against stuff like 87s. They aren't of grave concern here. I would only fold here if someone turned up one of those hands. Just because donkey A bet the flop doesn't mean he flopped the nuts.

I'm not saying that this is a great spot by any means. If we are best now, we will have to dodge a lot of ugly cards. We aren't going to come out on top anywhere near 50% of the time, but if we fold now with 30% equity we are making a massive misstep.


The other nice thing about these spots is that people are oftentimes getting "schooled". So if someone calls the flop with K2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], it doesn't matter if another dude calls with A3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. So just beacuse everyone appears to be drawing live against us, a lot of the draws overlap and actually help us here.

Brad

Re: Folding AA on Coordinated Flop...
 

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I still remember the first roasting I ever got by shill...

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Good times. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Folding AA on Coordinated Flop...
 

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The other nice thing about these spots is that people are oftentimes getting "schooled". So if someone calls the flop with K2 , it doesn't matter if another dude calls with A3 . So just beacuse everyone appears to be drawing live against us, a lot of the draws overlap and actually help us here.

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Nice point. Overlooked that.

Re: Folding AA on Coordinated Flop...
 

It's not even close to similar to this hand.

You're against a known maniac. I call down with AK unimproved against them. The board isn't even close to as coordinated as this. And the only ones raising are you and the maniac.

Re: Folding AA on Coordinated Flop...
 

From the situation you've suggested... someone betting a draw, someone betting a pair, and CO 3-betting with JJ. We only have 20% equity.

The KT and A9 were actual hands at showdown (all the rest were made up). I'll share the rest later.

Board: 8h 7h 6s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 20.7207 % 20.72% 00.00% { AdAs }
Hand 2: 39.3393 % 39.34% 00.00% { Ah9h }
Hand 3: 12.3123 % 12.31% 00.00% { KcTc }
Hand 4: 16.0661 % 11.11% 04.95% { 6h5h }
Hand 5: 05.1051 % 00.15% 04.95% { Qc5c }
Hand 6: 06.4565 % 06.46% 00.00% { JdJh }

-
or the more likelier case of someone AT LEAST having bottom two pair:

Board: 8h 7h 6s
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 08.7087 % 08.71% 00.00% { AdAs }
Hand 2: 43.0931 % 43.09% 00.00% { Ah9h }
Hand 3: 10.0601 % 10.06% 00.00% { KcTc }
Hand 4: 06.1562 % 06.16% 00.00% { JdJh }
Hand 5: 07.8078 % 07.81% 00.00% { Qc5c }
Hand 6: 24.1742 % 24.17% 00.00% { 7s6d }

9% equity... not quite 30.

Re: Folding AA on Coordinated Flop...
 

or the more likelier case of someone AT LEAST having bottom two pair

It is very easy to create scenarios where you should fold. All you have to say is that you think he is betting the flop with a straight and the debate is over. If your mind is made up that you are beat then oh well, I don't give a [censored] anymore.

The presence of a coordinated board doesn't mean that your hand is cooked already. It is scary because there are so many bad cards that can slide off. The fact that you are getting so much action here isn't really a problem. It would be MUCH worse if it came 3-bets to you and the flop were...

J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

There is just no way that you have 10% equity on the board in your original hand. No way.

Brad

Re: Folding AA on Coordinated Flop...
 

You're right, in this hand there's no way I had 9% equity. I had less than 9% equity! I was already against top set.

Re: Folding AA on Coordinated Flop...
 

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You're right, in this hand there's no way I had 9% equity. I had less than 9% equity! I was already against top set.

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hooray results based thinking

results
 

Results:

SB- 88 for top set
CO (pf raiser and flop 3-better)- Ah9h and made straight on river
MP - KcTc

No idea what UTG had. He folded before the river.