Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

He's welcome to draw to his 2-4 outs if he wants to. If you're talking about draws that thin, it may wind up being the hero who winds up getting the "free card".

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

Whoops, I just reread this, I said "reraise 55" meaning "random underpair". It just so happens 55 is a set. So change what I said to 66.

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

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He's welcome to draw to his 4-13 outs if he wants to. If you're talking about draws that thin, it may wind up being the hero who winds up getting the "free card" to 2 tainted outs.

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FYP

The only line that hasn't been mentioned is bet, bet. If you decide to bet the turn (which IMO is best) and he calls, you're getting nearly 8:1 on a river bet that he'll fold Kx, which is very possible.

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

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He's welcome to draw to his 0-13 outs if he wants to. If you're talking about draws that thin, it may wind up being the hero who winds up getting the "free card" to 2 barely tainted outs.

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FYP

The only line that hasn't been mentioned is bet, bet. If you decide to bet the turn (which IMO is best) and he calls, you're getting nearly 8:1 on a river bet that he'll fold Kx, which is very possible.

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FYP, if we're going to be technical. Kx may raise for a free showdown. If you bet the turn you have the choice of folding to junk hand raises or paying off an extra bet to big hands. We're OOP, let's just see a showdown as cheap as possible.

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

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He's welcome to draw to his 0-13 outs if he wants to. If you're talking about draws that thin, it may wind up being the hero who winds up getting the "free card" to 2 barely tainted outs.

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FYP

The only line that hasn't been mentioned is bet, bet. If you decide to bet the turn (which IMO is best) and he calls, you're getting nearly 8:1 on a river bet that he'll fold Kx, which is very possible.

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FYP, if we're going to be technical. Kx may raise for a free showdown. If you bet the turn you have the choice of folding to junk hand raises or paying off an extra bet to big hands. We're OOP, let's just see a showdown as cheap as possible.

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My point was that giving a free card to hands like QJ/QT is not as harmless as you make it out to be, and is worth probably .5BB on average to MD. Do you disagree (my math may be wrong)?

You "fixed" my post to say that MD may be drawing dead. Actually, if he's behind, he's never drawing to less than 4 outs.

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

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He's welcome to draw to his 0-13 outs if he wants to. If you're talking about draws that thin, it may wind up being the hero who winds up getting the "free card" to 2 barely tainted outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

The only line that hasn't been mentioned is bet, bet. If you decide to bet the turn (which IMO is best) and he calls, you're getting nearly 8:1 on a river bet that he'll fold Kx, which is very possible.

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FYP, if we're going to be technical. Kx may raise for a free showdown. If you bet the turn you have the choice of folding to junk hand raises or paying off an extra bet to big hands. We're OOP, let's just see a showdown as cheap as possible.

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My point was that giving a free card to hands like QJ/QT is not as harmless as you make it out to be, and is worth probably .5BB on average to MD. Do you disagree (my math may be wrong)?

You "fixed" my post to say that MD may be drawing dead. Actually, if he's behind, he's never drawing to less than 4 outs.

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I'll give you the .5 BB (what I meant is that an underpair is only 2 outs, and maybe it's a reach, but he could have a couple of suited connectors that aren't drawing to gutshots).

But your preflop 3-bet is crazy-scary to him. His range is pretty wide, but the range you're representing isn't. Say, TT-AA, AQ and up? Maybe 99? Which means with half of his range that's ahead, he thinks he's behind and may want to see a cheap showdown also. So when he checks behind on the turn, or bets the turn and then takes a free showdown, you're saving 1BB. What's the probability of that? It's hard to tell, but I'm guessing it offsets the .5BB.

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

One more thing (I know I write too much).

When he's behind, with, say, an underpair, he *knows* he's behind, but he also knows the board is scary, and that you're a TAG who avoids drawing dead, so he's not going to fold the flop with 66, he's going to take at least one opportunity to scare the crap out of you. By bluff-raising the turn.

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

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One more thing (I know I write too much).

When he's behind, with, say, an underpair, he *knows* he's behind, but he also knows the board is scary, and that you're a TAG who avoids drawing dead, so he's not going to fold the flop with 66, he's going to take at least one opportunity to scare the crap out of you. By bluff-raising the turn.

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MD would have to call the flop with 66 specifically to float and raise the turn - This is a dangerous board for him and most of hero's hand range is ahead of 66 so his only hope is to fold a better hand, not the best plan. It is possible, but not that likely.

Surf

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

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I think the line that gets you into the least trouble is to checkcall the turn and checkfold the river, but even that is dangerous.

-Michael

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Saves me trouble from having to type.

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

Could one of you advocating the check/call, check/fold line explain it to me? Won't he just check his draws and bet when he's ahead on the turn? And if he's aggro enough to bluff the turn with gutshots won't he sometimes bet the river too when he misses? I must be missing something.