Re: basics: opening A2o in SB
 

because 75% of the time i get called and end up check/folding the river.

i think microbob and the others are too optimisitic when it comes to fold equity here.

Re: basics: opening A2o in SB
 

he would have to be pretty gutsy to call this with any kind of overcards which he could have.

i agree that i tend to be optimistic about my opponents' crappy holding though.


yes, I check-fold the river after a turn-bet...but I don't think it gets called 75% of the time.
Much of the time it will be raised and you can more safely fold....or you can induce a fold from your opponent.

I think this bluff works more than 75% of the time.

Re: basics: opening A2o in SB
 

also - when he does call there is still the chance that your ace outs are good.
and certainly the chances of a rivered 5 leading to a split-pot are decent as well.

so on the river there are 7 cards that you're reasonably happy to see (I wouldn't go so far to call them 'outs' though because you really have no idea where you stand)

this isn't THAT much of a factor...just something that occured to me....that you aren't COMPLETELY dead if he only calls.
But the original idea is that a bluff here can still win the hand....and checking almost automatically loses no matter what he has.

Re: basics: opening A2o in SB
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think this bluff works more than 75% of the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

a bluff in the literal sesne (trying to fold a better hand) is effective 0% of the time here, imo.

Re: basics: opening A2o in SB
 

don't forget he sometimes still calls the turn w/ overcards and then checks the river and your A high is good.

checking this turn is weak IMO.

Re: basics: opening A2o in SB
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think this bluff works more than 75% of the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

a bluff in the literal sesne (trying to fold a better hand) is effective 0% of the time here, imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

True, however, there is a quite large # of holdings that villain could have that we are ahead of - overcards, 1over/1under, some sort of straight draw / picked up FD.

We bet the turn to protect our hand - we don't mind him folding correctly because we can't call a bet if we check...we make way more mistakes check-folding the turn (by letting him bet us out of the pot with worse hands) than by betting and sometimes having him call with a better hand.

Surf