Re: 30/60 party anotther QQ pf decison
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You can play for a set profitably here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't think this is true.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not? Assuming UTG and UTG+1 call the raise, hero is getting over 4 to 1 to call 4 cold. With this kind of pre-flop action, you don't think a set of queens can make enough money?

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

See my reply for the math breakdown.

-Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

It's actually a little worse than Scott shows. You are not guaranteed to get those early calls, and the rock has already likely killed the action.

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely. Didn't I mention it as a best case scenario?

Re: 30/60 party anotther QQ pf decison
 

Sorry Scott - I quick scanned your post.

Re: 30/60 party anotther QQ pf decison
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So a minimum of 14 Bigs need to fly off the stacks of your opponents, which doesn't seem feasable given 2 of your opponents are rocks, and UTG might fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

There will already be 8 big bets in the pot pre-flop. Only need 6 more.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're assuming that the first 2 raisers call. I'd guess there's a decent chance the UTG rock might fold.

-Scott

Re: 30/60 party anotther QQ pf decison
 

thanks for all the comments and advice, i appreciate it. i think the rock cold calling 4 bets sealed the deal on my fold. also, knowing me i would have ended up calling down on a raggedy board and lost a lottt of money.

Re: 30/60 party anotther QQ pf decison
 

i think in you have to call in that position, the original rasiser is not folding for 2 more bets after he raised and the BB might even call after you call and the little blind will more than likely fold and thats another bet in the pot so you would be getting 5.25 to 1 on your bet more then likely. With QQ there is a slight chance you do have the best hand and you know that on the flop you will be calling any bet as long as it is not more than 1 bet maybe 2 bets depending on how many people are in, more than likely no one is folding on the flop unless its a nasty flop and someone missed completely. so you are looking at around a 540 to 600 dollar pot going into the turn card. so you are calling with a gut shot straight or open ender. if you flop a set you are looking to take down a very large pot, so you have to call, the implied odds for this hand are ridiculous and with a hand as strong as QQ it should be an easy call. i guess thats just my opinion..also you have position on the hand to have an idea how many bets it will be you throughout the hand..

Re: 30/60 party anotther QQ pf decison
 

for what it's worth i think this is a dead easy fold given your descriptions of the players.

Re: 30/60 party anotther QQ pf decison
 

[ QUOTE ]

I think the math says its a fold. Assuming you need to hit your set, you need to collect 7x your preflop investment to break even. So a minimum of 14 Bigs need to fly off the stacks of your opponents, which doesn't seem feasable given 2 of your opponents are rocks, and UTG might fold. Also this doesn't count the times you pop off for a lot of bets with an underset, or you lose to a straight or flush. So you essentially need three of your four opponents to go cap the turn AND the river for you to make money or at least break even here.
-Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

of course he's getting about 4-1 on his preflop call, so that covers a bit of the pot odds he needs to have his set pay off. you're heavily overstating how much action he needs to get for this to be profitable.

...of course, i still fold.