Two Plus Two Older Archives - Color by numbers: It's gonna be a looooooong ride...

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Re: Zed\'s dead, baby. Zed\'s dead.

Suspense, you're keeping me in suspense!

I know its good for discussion, but sucks for curiosity.

Re: Color by numbers: It\'s gonna be a looooooong ride...

Interesting / frustrating / shitty damn hand. Flop is easy, just keep calling but hope it settles down. Turn card is fantabulous. Ginormous pot but I just don't think calling is good here. There certainly seems to be one flush out there, meaning there are only 7 flush outs for us (maybe less). Those 7 outs should be pretty heavily discounted given the possibility / likelihood that our flush is dead to A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] -- call it 4 (pretty aggressive, IMHO since "slightly passive" and especially "very passive" don't strike me as the type to go nuts without the nuts). Once at a midpoint of 4 outs, we need to discount again for the very real possibility that a flush doesn't win this hand. Knock the 4 outs down to about 3 (not too pessimistic, IMHO). J outs don't help us unless we're drawing against two made flushes (in which case our flush outs are reduced at least as much as the additional J outs availble to us). Q outs are pretty dubious but the best we've got going for us. There are two of them out there, but they should be discounted a bit given that JJ and KK are certainly within UTG's range and he's playing this hand like a bat out of hell for a passive guy. Call them 1 - 1.5 outs. So I think a reasonable number of outs on the turn is ~4. We need a bit more than 10:1 to make the turn call profitable. We're almost there but that assumes this turn action doesn't get three-bet or capped. If it gets capped, we're getting an effective 6:1 to see the river and if it gets 3-bet we're getting ~7:1. On top of all this, we really can't try and make up implied odds on the river since we really can't have a good idea of how good our hand is relative to opponents -- are we raising if we spike a Q? raising if a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] comes? How do we feel putting in two or three bets even if we spike a Q?

Since this sure looks to me like it is going at least 3 bets on the turn (UTG looks to be a candidate for a FH and at "best" an AK with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]), I think folding is best. If these guys were described as maniacs or LAGs then I can see playing this differently, but against a "slightly passive" and "very passive" that are showing this much excitement, meh, let it go and fight another day. That said, I would probably find it hard to do with a 30 second window to act and the ginormous pot staring at me, and can easily see myself calling along (but I wouldn't be proud or happy about it).

Re: Zed\'s dead, baby. Zed\'s dead.

When you combine PF, flop, and turn action, the player descriptions, the fact that you are not closing the action, could be drawing dead, and bad reverse implied odds (if you hit your flush, it could take multiple bets that you don't want to be putting into the pot to get to showdown), I don't think 10-1 (at best) is enough to call the turn, I think this is an easy fold.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. MP posts a blind of $5. CO posts a blind of $5.
UTG raises, MP (poster) calls, CO (poster) calls, Button calls, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, UTG caps, MP calls, CO calls, Button calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (20.40 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, MP raises, CO folds, Button folds, Hero calls, UTG 3-bets, MP caps, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (16.20 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, MP raises, Hero folds, UTG calls.

River: (20.20 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, MP bets, UTG calls.

-----

MP shows down T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. UTG has A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Rob

Notes. Revise your reads.

[ QUOTE ]
Notes. Revise your reads.

[/ QUOTE ]

Which read? I said UTG was slightly passive, I stand by that. MP was definitely passive and continued to be through the rest of the session.

Rob

I dunno, i think a player that's slightly passive doesn't bet that turn w/AK no club against a flop capper on that board.

[ QUOTE ]
I dunno, i think a player that's slightly passive doesn't bet that turn w/AK no club against a flop capper on that board.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see a lot of otherwise passive players overplaying AK in general, especially with the number of people that will raise for a free card in a multiway pot.

Rob

I didn't mean your reads were wildly off.

I'm probably working off a different definition of "very passive" for my own note-taking. I wouldn't intrepret "very passive" in my own notes as indicating a willingness to cap the flop with a flopped flush against pre-flop a 3-bettor and a capper with anything less than a nut flush, and even then some of my "very passive" guys wouldn't find any raises after getting three-bet on the flop. Even though he has a draw to the SF and the third nut flush on the flop, my note after a hand like this would read more along the lines of "Passive post-flop; but aggressive with a very strong hand even when facing lots of aggression." In other words, I think he played the hand pretty well, and if I had "very passive" in my notes I'd expect him to slow down to a flop three bet or at least not raise the turn when lead into after capping the flop. I'd definitely note the play of this hand in his notes.

I'm not sure I'd revise "slightly passive" at all given the play in this hand, though I might add something along the lines of "3-bet flop and lead turn into capper with TPTK on monotone paired broadway facing serious aggression" - my comment was really directed at the poster read more than UTG, but I think the play of this hand is really worthy of hand-specific notes on both these guys.

Re: Color by numbers: It\'s gonna be a looooooong ride...

Crazy hand. I would amend my reads after it, but that may be because "very passive" and "slightyl passive" mean different things to me than to you.

The "very passive" note I have is on a player who flatcalled the river with the nuts. The "slightly passive" guy shut down when I 3bet him on the flop with bottom set.

My definition is different. Given my definition, I play it how you did. If I knew UTG was capable of 3betting AKs on that flop I might think more about calling down. Additionally, there are many more combinations of AK left vs 1 of JJ and 3 of KK, from a pure statistics standpoint.

Surf