Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

I banged my head on my desk as soon as I bet the flop

I bet 300, not really paying attention to their stack sizes. As soon as I did it, I realized that I am obligated to call a push (a situation I pride myself in avoiding).

He pushed, I called and rivered JJ with a K.

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

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Agree.. There's no reason not to think we're ahead here.

If we get called or raised were beat and we know it.. if we check, we're still in the dark and pretty much putting our faith on winning the pot with our 6-outer.

Must bet the flop.. Checking is a weak option.

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You can say we are most likely beat, and I will agree. But you cant say "know", b/c we dont. As I mentioned I was check raised all in by AQ 10 hands ago at a prior table, so lets not pretend it is impossible. If you give the villan a 5-10% chance of bluffing at this pot with a check raise, then you have to call if you bet 250. Its a call I will make, but not one I am crazy about making.

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i haven't done the math, but i'd be surprised if that's right? are you including the times villain has 77/A9, etc and you have 0-3 outs instead of 6?

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Giving the villan any pocket pair puts us at about 24% equity. We dont need much more to call getting 2.8-1 odds

remember we have a running flush and straight draw which helps

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

You say postflop aggression is generally respected, so I dont see why betting 250 isn't the perfect option. If they want to checkraise me all in, they earned the pot from me. It's quite likely I was beat in that case.

Checking MIGHT hit your hand which MIGHT earn you some more money, but I think playing for the immediate pot is a better option.

Kings

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

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You say postflop aggression is generally respected, so I dont see why betting 250 isn't the perfect option. If they want to checkraise me all in, they earned the pot from me. It's quite likely I was beat in that case.

Checking MIGHT hit your hand which MIGHT earn you some more money, but I think playing for the immediate pot is a better option.

Kings

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This was after 7 or 8 hands, I am far from having a read on either villan. Neither had been invloved in a hand that I remember

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

300 is slightly over the edge IMO.

I think you can get away from 200-250.

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

So just to clarify:

One of the villains had one of the roughly 650/1000 possible hands that had you beat,
Didn't believe you had a big overpair and c/r you all in.
And you got all their money in w/ 6 outs fairly early in the tournament with no read on their play.

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

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I banged my head on my desk as soon as I bet the flop

I bet 300, not really paying attention to their stack sizes. As soon as I did it, I realized that I am obligated to call a push (a situation I pride myself in avoiding).

He pushed, I called and rivered JJ with a K.

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Villian should have pushed his JJ overpair on the flop. He risked letting you take a freecard to hit one of your overcards. I think you fold your AK 100% of the time to a push on the flop.

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

I fold AK to any reasonable bet on that flop.

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

[ QUOTE ]
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Agree.. There's no reason not to think we're ahead here.

If we get called or raised were beat and we know it.. if we check, we're still in the dark and pretty much putting our faith on winning the pot with our 6-outer.

Must bet the flop.. Checking is a weak option.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can say we are most likely beat, and I will agree. But you cant say "know", b/c we dont. As I mentioned I was check raised all in by AQ 10 hands ago at a prior table, so lets not pretend it is impossible. If you give the villan a 5-10% chance of bluffing at this pot with a check raise, then you have to call if you bet 250. Its a call I will make, but not one I am crazy about making.

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i haven't done the math, but i'd be surprised if that's right? are you including the times villain has 77/A9, etc and you have 0-3 outs instead of 6?

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Giving the villan any pocket pair puts us at about 24% equity. We dont need much more to call getting 2.8-1 odds

remember we have a running flush and straight draw which helps

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when we're behind, i think we're a little worse off than "any pocket pair." that's only 3 AA's, 3 KK's, and 9 sets. "any pair" probably overstates likelihood of AA/KK (and accurately states the odds of sets), but i think that A7/A9/K9 are all fairly likely (if you knew they didn't suck, those become less likely). despite your earlier one hand, i think it's pretty rare to get c/r'ed with air in this spot, so i'd need 3:1 to call.

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

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So just to clarify:

One of the villains had one of the roughly 650/1000 possible hands that had you beat,
Didn't believe you had a big overpair and c/r you all in.
And you got all their money in w/ 6 outs fairly early in the tournament with no read on their play.

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Great game, aint it!

The point of the post is that I misplayed the hand. The only think I did correctly was call with my 6 outs.