Re: When to Value bet when to not Value bet?
 

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This pot will be huge by showdown if things go wrong or right.

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It will be huger when your hand is not best.

But yeah, given the size of the pot by then the river play doesn't matter that much, but what about my other points?

Re: When to Value bet when to not Value bet?
 

i'm not betting either one

Re: When to Value bet when to not Value bet?
 

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Yeah. SB just bet into a field of 6, there's a very good chance he has you beat.

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I'm betting [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]'s here 100% of the time.

Re: When to Value bet when to not Value bet?
 

Read my other post in this thread, Bob.

Re: When to Value bet when to not Value bet?
 

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I think we can agree the the sb limper has either a strong hand or a strong draw.

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I will agree that SB has either some made hand or some draw. I will not agree that they are neccessarily strong and in doing so, I think you're giving too much credit to the average Party 2/4 player.

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I agree that they're not calling 2sbs profitably, but that doesn't mean they're not calling. "Aha," you might say, "if they're calling unprofitably then that means we are profiting." That's not necessarily true though, if the sb has a strong hand he is profiting off of them and us and if he has a strong draw then he is siphoning off a lot of our profit because he wins a lot of the time when they don't improve but he does.

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It's a good point. Don't discount that many times hands that call Hero's flop raise are sharing outs which is favorable for Hero.

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I didn't say see showdown, but say you raise and two people cold call and the turn is any overcard. Are you check-folding?

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No - I bet. I've gained no evidence that I don't have the best hand.

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And if you bet and don't get raised, well you're in a tough situation on the river and prone to error while allowing any opponents in position to play the river almost perfectly.

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I'm going to have to reevaluate on the river. Based only on the possibility that I'll be in a bad situation on the river is not influencing the way I'd choose to play the hand on the flop or turn. You're going to be missing some value in your game if you are making flop/turn decisions based on the possibility that something bad might happen by the river. You're not going to improve as a player if you constantly "shy-away" from possible difficult situations (note: everyone may fold - there's a reasonable chance that you might not even have that difficult situation).

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And let me reiterate just how bad your implied odds are, say someone 3-bets the flop, do they have diamonds, an oesd, a set, a worse top pair, a better top pair, a pair with a high diamond? It's very difficult to tell and you're in a very tough spot for the rest of the hand.

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Yes - I would be in a difficult spot. But again - that possibility is not influencing my initial flop decision to not put myself in there and get dirty.

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Obviously you'd need more specifics to answer these questions exactly

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It's true - this would be a difficult hand that would require a lot of reevaluation during the hand. That's not a reason to give up on top-pair for 1SB in a decent sized pot.

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what I'm saying is that there are a lot of ways for this hand to go wrong which is expensive, and not that many for it to go right, and when it does go right then you're frequently going to not win all that much.

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The pot, with several callers PF and a bet flop is now 4BB big enough that I don't need to play it perfectly that often to break even on it. I will concede that the difference between raising and folding the flop is probably not significant over the long run in terms of BB/hand. What is significant is the knowledge that you'll gain by playing in difficult situations versus only exploiting edges that you know are large.

Re: When to Value bet when to not Value bet?
 

I don't think I'm giving "too much credit" to the average 2/4er, I haven't played that game for a while but I recall that most players were too loose and too passive. And I wasn't suggesting that you do check-fold the turn when an overcard comes, that would be absurd.

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What is significant is the knowledge that you'll gain by playing in difficult situations versus only exploiting edges that you know are large.

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I don't post much in this forum anymore, if I did you'd know I'm quite happy to exploit small edges. I don't think this is a small edge, I think you lose money by continuing here.

Re: When to Value bet when to not Value bet?
 

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I'm not praying, I *KNOW* its a split pot.

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If you know it's a split pot then why are you knocking out the other player with a c/r?

Re: When to Value bet when to not Value bet?
 

Hi,

Because they don't *know* its a split pot. Since I'm the BB they have to be worried I have a 4 as I'm playing the hand exactly like someone would with a 4.

If I can fold out an ace thats great, if not I hope Party enjoys the extra rake.

Later,
MarkV.

Re: When to Value bet when to not Value bet?
 

I don't think a flop fold is a bad idea here. I think it's close. If he's betting a draw we're about 50/50 to win anyway since he's likely got an overcard diamond. And there are 4 people behind us yet. A draw heavy board and TP questionable kicker in a big field with a still fairly small pot at this point doesn't seem like a bad time to muck to me. I think raising is better than calling but folding wouldn't be giving up much here if any.

The turn check/raise in hand two makes no sense. I'd rather check/fold than check/raise.

Re: When to Value bet when to not Value bet?
 

Hi,

Everyone needs to read *why* I CR'd the turn on hand two. See my post, hand 2 check-raise.

Recap, I'm the BB I can have a 4, I'm 90% certain its a slit pot, getting another ace to fold *might* happen. Its never to early to start thinking about the Meta-game.

Later,
MarkV.