Re: Pinnacle\'s Cashout Policy
 

The big three do not like a bad bet to me. Ivey and Matusow are the two best tournament players left over. If you throw Phan in and make it the big 4, I think it's a super +EV bet.

Re: Phil Ivey prop bet
 

Yea, I've got a lot of cash on Ivey not winning it. He's only got 8% of the chips but would need to win it more than 15% of the time for Ivey -520 to be a bad bet. Ivey's good, but not THAT good.

Re: Phil Ivey prop bet
 

From Pinnacle:
WSOP 2005 Matchups Big 3 (Ivey, Matusow, and Raymer) vs. The Field

What exactly is the proposition here? Is it 1) who wins the main event or 2) which group wins more money?

Re: Phil Ivey prop bet
 

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www.pinnaclesports has phil ivey not winning the main event at -556. Conversly he is plus 407 to win it. These numbers seem way way out of whack. I would want all i could get on the no he wont win at -556.Any thoughts

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Whoever set those odds has no clue. They seem way way out of whack. You better hurry and lock it in.

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Setting odds in sports betting has absolutely nothing to do with what the real odds are, and everything to do with setting it up so you get an equal amount of money/proportion bet by people on both sides of the issue so that regardless of what actually happens the house wins its rake.

Re: Phil Ivey prop bet
 

It was who wins the tournament. We were basically betting that neither Raymer nor Ivey nor Matusow would WIN the tournament (and Raymer is gone).

Re: Pinnacle\'s Cashout Policy
 

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Just thought I'd throw you guys a heads up in case you were thinking of opening an account and throwing a tenner on one of these props. Here's a copy and paste job from their web site:

Our clients receive one free payout per month for withdrawals of $1,000 or more for cheques or wire transfers, with a flat fee of $25, or equivalent, for any additional withdrawals. Clients also receive one free Neteller, Moneybookers, WebMoney or Instadebit withdrawal of $500 or more per calendar month. Neteller, Moneybookers, WebMoney or Instadebit withdrawals of less than $500, or more than one per calendar month, incur a fee of $15 or equivalent, per transaction.

So, consider how this affects your EV computation on a small bankroll. I was gonna put $20 on the Big 3 just to have some rooting interest until I read this. The $15 withdrawal fee put the brakes on that. I guess I could just deposit $600 and then withdraw for free Saturday. Yeah, that might work.

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I think I tried that a while ago and they weren't too fond of it.

Re: Phil Ivey prop bet
 

Ivey is knocked out. He had JJ vs KK.

Re: Phil Ivey prop bet
 

NICE. Had quite a bit at -550 on Ivey not winning. Now Matusow needs to go and I'll be raking in the dough.

Re: Phil Ivey prop bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
www.pinnaclesports has phil ivey not winning the main event at -556. Conversly he is plus 407 to win it. These numbers seem way way out of whack. I would want all i could get on the no he wont win at -556.Any thoughts

[/ QUOTE ]

Whoever set those odds has no clue. They seem way way out of whack. You better hurry and lock it in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Setting odds in sports betting has absolutely nothing to do with what the real odds are, and everything to do with setting it up so you get an equal amount of money/proportion bet by people on both sides of the issue so that regardless of what actually happens the house wins its rake.

[/ QUOTE ]

Common misconception.

Re: Phil Ivey prop bet
 

Homer, what's your take on the prop bet? Obviously now that Ivey's out its a moot point, but do you think Ivey -550 was a good play given he only held 8% of the chips?