Re: ATo in MP with lots of blind money in - raise it up???
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Most of those hands have the odds to call two cold.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are plenty of hands you can put in an incorrect position to call here that you want out. You're also assuming that you'll be bet into on the turn again, which won't always happen.

Raise the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

What hands are you talking about? I trust your judgment, but am struggling to find a range of hands to substantiate your claim.

I've already been through the one club gutshot draws, the Qx hands, the no club gutshots, the club flushes, the Ax hands, and the pocket pairs. Of these hands, the ONLY ones that must fold for two bets but not one are as follows: no club gutshots, QT, and the weakest Ax hands (probably only A2 and A3). That's a very small universe. I'd argue that other weak offsuit aces have the odds to call two bets cold on the flop if they knew what I had, since they have three outs to beat me (pairing their kicker), three outs to tie me (the fours, since my kicker wouldn't play), some partial outs to chop if a queen falls and then a card that kills my kicker, and then whatever backdoor draws they've got. Counting outs per SSH, this total will usually add up to about 5.5. With implied odds, 5.5 outers have the odds to call two cold on this flop. Maniac BB's presence adds a lot of potential profit to any drawing hand, since he often pays off to the bitter end while behind.

Raising the flop to price this small universe out has the adverse consequences of:

1.) Bloating the pot, meaning that those hands that should call the flop raise will again have the odds to call on the turn;
2.) Substantially reducing the likelyhood that I'll be bet into on the turn, meaning I won't be able to raise and instead be forced to offer either infinite odds (by checking myself) or huge odds (~10:1 when its checked to me and I bet) on the turn.

Think about the number of cards I don't want to see on the turn if I raise the flop, and compare it to the number of cards I don't want to see on the turn if I just call. Therer's almost no difference whatsoever. The turn will make this hand, and I might as well limit my investment prior to then, and maximize my ability to offer incorrect odds when a favorable card does fall on 4th street.

Edit: I suppose bottom pair/random kicker hands are one type of hand that I do want out that will call one bet but not two. While my PF raise probably thinned some 4-x hands out, some could easily still be around.

Re: ATo in MP with lots of blind money in - raise it up???
 

i hate it, congrats on sucking out on the river.