Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

To actually answer this question we have to think about it from the perspective of the big blind.

What range of hands will the big blind put you on if you shove? We are given that he is a typical WPT player, which makes me think that he has a pretty decent understanding of the game.

Now, when you raise with 5 big blinds on the button, AFTER losing a big hand, with such an obvious steal situation, he will probably put you on...any two cards.

So he thinks you have any two cards. Then he will look at the pot odds...he's getting about 1.9:1. Then he'll realize that the 16K it will take to call is inconsequential to his stack. Or he'll just want to bust you to get into the money.

So what will he call your all-in with? Probably 85-90% of his hands. Maybe more.

And that's just the big blind. With the small blind in as well...you are probably getting called over 90% of the time.

Fold.

Will

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

The problem with this is that you still have to wait for 3 players to bust to win anything, and everyone else has at least 2.5x your stack. I don't think you can wait around that long.

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

Close fold.

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

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The problem with this is that you still have to wait for 3 players to bust to win anything, and everyone else has at least 2.5x your stack. I don't think you can wait around that long.

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You can sure as hell wait for a better hand than 8 high

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

I think this is a clear-cut push. You only have 5x the BB. Every single hand you're losing 500 of your 20K to antes. The next smallest stack has 12.5 BB's, and you're still 4 from the money. You're probably getting called unless BB has total trash, but due to the circumstances you're in you're forced to gamble. 86s is only a 3-2 dog against AKo, and you're on the button. You're not going to get much better situations to increase your stack by 50%. What are you going to wait around for, AK or a big pocket pair? Are you hoping to push next hand with a hand like A6s, and get called by A9 where you're a 2-1 dog? Of course 8 high isn't going to be ahead if you're called, but you can't wait around to accumulate chips when every hand you're losing 500 chips and the BB is 20% of your stack.

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

But then you will be in a much worse position than the button, with way more than 2 people to act behind you. 86s is only a 3-2 dog against AKo, and every single hand you're losing 500 chips. If you have to wait around for the big blind for a decent hand, you've all of a sudden lost another 3K in chips to antes, with 6K in blinds coming in the next 2 hands.

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

Muck. Not even close.

Vince

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

Easy fold. I'd be almost sure that one of the blinds would call and 86s, while great mulitway or against Aces is a disaster heads up. Wait untill K-high or better then shove would be my plan.

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

Push, because you could really use the blinds and even though 8-6 suited is NOT a great all-in hand it shouldn't be a huge underdog unless it's up against an overpair. The typical players with 150K will usually fold because they don't want to risk 20K when the average stack is 200K. Also there's no need to try and "sneek in the money" as most people will be trying to do because the last couple spots don't pay all that well, therefore, your goal is to try and accumulate some chips because you're trying to get to where the real money is, which should be somewhere around the final table (give or take a few players).

Re: Tournament Tactics Question
 

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fold, your objective is to double up, not add insignificant chips to your stack. with 5 more hands to go before big blind, you're bound to pick up a better hand than 8 high.

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For the sake of argument, let's say I'm appropriately-bankrolled for $10K tournaments and bought in directly, and not someone who won a $300 satellite and for whom 27th is double my current bankroll.

There's 10K in the pot between the blinds and antes and we have 20K to start the hand. If the blinds fold, those aren't "insignificant chips". The folding equity of a 20K stack sucks, and 30K does a lot better.

And while we're likely to get a better hand than 86s before the blinds hit us, there are downsides to waiting too. When that better hand comes, someone else may have already opened the pot. I doubt calling a raise with Q2o in MP is going to turn out better than pushing 86s here. If we do get to open we'll be pushing into more players. Here we're only hoping to get 2 people to fold. In short, waiting for a better hand may not have a better EV. We can't just assume it does.

Getting called here isn't going to be a fun situation, but nothing we do has a particularly good $EV right now. 20K chips is enough to last 2 rounds - 16 hands, but realistically 13-14 since we're not going to fold in the BB after putting in 60% of our stack to get 2 more hands. I don't think that'll get us into the money.

I have suited live connected cards, some tiny possibility of folding equity, and if I win I'll have somewhere between 30K-65K chips. I think I push here, especially if the table's been tight enough that I think I'll able to steal again before the blinds hit me.

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I spent awhile looking at our chipEV for various calling ranges. If SB and BB both call every time we're +400 chips. If they both call with every hand that's not dominated by 86s, we're called by both 81% of the time, neither 1% of the time, and one the remaining 18%. That's +600 chips. The more hands they fold, the more chipEV we have. If they're playing too tight (SB playing top 15%, BB top 35%) we end up closer to +5500.