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-   -   10-20: AA under pressure on the turn (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=25616)

JTG51 12-09-2002 02:00 PM

Re: Two questions for everyone
 
Yes, and yes.

I think UTG (I assume you meant UTG, not BB) made a great fold. I don't know what his kicker was, but I'm guessing it wasn't great. By the time he had folded, SB had shown so much strength that he almost had to have a full house.

If I had QQ in SBs position, I'd definitely go to war on the turn. You just finished telling me on the small stakes forum that you see the raise the turn for a free showdown all the time. That was my plan here. If SB calls my 3 bet with QQ, tries to go for a check raise on the river and I check behind, it's a disaster. He's also got a good chance to collect 2 more bets from UTG by 4 betting the turn, as most players will call with a 5 there.

And he should be able to keep me in with a 4 bet also. Who ever 3 bets then folds to a 4 bet? [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img]

Manzanita 12-09-2002 02:34 PM

Re: Results
 
JTG51,

I can't believe that the BB folded a full house. Is there a typo here (and it was the SB who actually had the nines full)?

-- Manzanita

Ulysses 12-09-2002 02:37 PM

Re: Two questions for everyone
 
I think UTG (I assume you meant UTG, not BB) made a great fold.
I meant BB. I think UTG has an easy fold against what surely looks like SBs full house. Even though it's 3 cold to him, BB has the tougher fold with the medium full house. But I guess the only thing he can beat is Q5s or 95s from the SB that called two cold, so in his position my action is purely dependent on whether or not SB would play those cards. In 10-20 (actually, 9-18) against an unknown player where I play, I may have to call here. Against many players, it is an easy, easy fold. Against others it is an easy raise...

If I had QQ in SBs position, I'd definitely go to war on the turn. You just finished telling me on the small stakes forum that you see the raise the turn for a free showdown all the time. That was my plan here.

I see the 3-bet the turn for a free showdown a lot less. [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img]

If I'm SB I'm already counting the bet from you calling, that's a given. However, I think calling here is better. I think there are many holdings of BB and UTG here that fold to the 4-bet but call or even raise the 3-bet. I'd probably bet out on the river regardless.

JTG51 12-09-2002 02:40 PM

My apologies for a big typo!
 
Sorry everyone. It was SB that showed 99 after everyone else folded. BB didn't show anything.

I should have realized I made a typo when Ulysses asked about BB's fold.

JTG51 12-09-2002 02:44 PM

Oops
 
Sorry for making you do all this extra typing Ulysses. it wasn't BB that had 99, that was a typo. SB had 99, for the winning hand.

Now, if BB did have 99, I think that would have been a terrible fold. This particular BB probablywouldn't have folded with a single 9 in his hand, nevermind a pair of them. [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img]

Sorry for the confusion.

Ulysses 12-09-2002 02:48 PM

Re: Oops
 
LOL. No worries. I think it's a much more interesting hand to analyze when BB has 99, bets out, and then is faced with SB's 4-bet!

It's also a pity BB and UTG didn't call, since then I think you have to toss in one more BB and catch your Ace on the river.

JTG51 12-09-2002 02:52 PM

Yes, thank you. *NM*
 

Matt D 12-10-2002 10:10 PM

Re: 10-20: AA under pressure on the turn
 
This is post mortem (I have read the results), but I have two points too make that I have not seen mentioned.

1) You said SB played very poorly. I am assuming he is also somewhat weak. Would he really be the turn after you have shown all that strength without a 5? Remember, he might not be smart enough to go for a checkraise. My experience says that weak players almost always have a 5 in this spot.

2) You said the UTG player played well post flop. If this is true, he has to have a 5. With any hand you beat he would have bet or checkraised the flop if he played well. IE checking flop with a Q is horrendous, not betting or check raising with Q9 is more horrendous. Furthermore, raising the turn with a hand that cannot possibly beat SB (flush draw, straight draw) is also very bad, as he must understand SB has something with which he will call all bets.

So, I think you had a fold and it wasn't close.
(From your descriptions of the players)

JTG51 12-11-2002 02:53 AM

Re: 10-20: AA under pressure on the turn
 
Matt, thanks for the reply. I just want to clear one thing up. It wasn't the SB that I said was a terrible player, that was the BB. The SB was a total unknown. Also, the SB did bet the turn without a 5. He bet it with 9's full. [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img]

That said, I think you are right. I should have folded. That's why I posted the hand. I wanted to see if I was a chicken, or if others thought I should have also.

Matt D 12-11-2002 07:22 PM

Re: 10-20: AA under pressure on the turn
 
My bad, man. After reading all those replies, I got your information mixed up. I still think that if UTG plays well, he must have a 5. The key is whether or not he has check-called a pre-flop raiser with top pair on the flop in a multiway pot before. If you have never seen him do that, I would say he almost has to have a 5.

BTW Thanks for posting this hand. I enjoyed thinking about it. Also, remember that you are only getting about 3.5 to 1 on your 3 bet. You can fold the best hand here sometimes and still come out ahead.


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