Re: I\'m a bit loose
 

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Pf is pretty standard imo. I don't mind the flop call since I think you'll get to see a free river quite often when he has overs, but check/calling the turn seems bad.

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If we think that a pair is often enough it makes no sense to play it passivly when we hit. Okay, this guy is passive, but even he will see that noone is hit by this board and sometimes try a bet with good overcards on turn.

If I called this flop, which I think is marginal, I would bet turn when I hit. This guy will not raise without a T or maybe with overpair (but probably only call).

Re: I\'m a bit loose
 

I'm not so sure about the math here, but here's why I don't like the flop call. One, the pots not that big. Two, if he has an overpair (or something like 88, 99, etc), you are drawing near dead. Three if someone has a 10, you're drawing dead. Four, even if he has AK, he has a redraw if you hit one of your six outs on the turn. Also, there is no guarantee the turn will get checked here even if he just has overs. If you're against a totally passive, predictable opponent in that you know you'll get to see all the cards run if he doesn't have trips or an overpair...the call is ok I guess, but still marginal. Provided you won't be stupid enough to bet the river if he checks behind on the turn and you miss. Cause you'll get looked up by ace high close to 100% of the time.

In any case, I'm folding the flop the vast majority of the time.

Jeff

Re: I\'m a bit loose
 

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After some calculations, he needs to have an overpair less than about 37% of the time for this to be EV neutral. I think I have that?


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It feels roughly right if you cancel out the implied odds and reverse implied odds and more heavily weigh the hands (overcards) against which hero is drawing live to account for the flop pot odds shortfall, but how do you exactly come up with 37%? I would quess it was a little lower than this but it seems reasonable.

Re: I\'m a bit loose
 

After some calculations, he needs to have an overpair less than about 37% of the time for this to be EV neutral. I think I have that?

Please show your work.

Lost Wages

Re: I\'m a bit loose
 

I based it with him always betting the turn but if you change it to leading the turn, I think it's still the same.

When he has an overpair, you lose 2BB.
When he has overcards, you'll win 2BB most of the time but he'll outdraw you on the river 13% of the time (6/46).

They're pretty rough calculations, but it's close enough.

Re: I\'m a bit loose
 

If that flop call is correct, then I have no understanding of how to play six-max.

(If the call is wrong, then I still only have a tiny bit of understanding of how to play six-max.)

Re: I\'m a bit loose
 

After some more pondering, I think you guys who are suggesting the gaybet on the turn are right.

Re: I\'m a bit loose
 

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After some more pondering, I think you guys who are suggesting the gaybet on the turn are right.

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Why is this better than a turn cr? I imagine he is autobetting overs on the turn near 95% of the time.

Krishan

Re: I\'m a bit loose
 

Nah, even aggressive opponents won't bet overs on the turn that often.

Re: I\'m a bit loose
 

When he has an overpair, you lose 2BB.

When he has an overpair, you lose 2.5BB if you pair the turn. 1SB on the flop and 1BB on each the turn and river.

When he has overcards, you'll win 2BB most of the time but he'll outdraw you on the river 13% of the time (6/46).

When he has overcards, he calls the turn but folds the river. That's +1BB.

Lost Wages