Re: AQo on BB to a SB raise (First in) - River Play
 

I think the problem is that you cant eliminate QQ or KK, and once he theebets the flop the conditional probibility that he has JJ is much lower then AK so you have to weight some of those hands in the second group accordingly and I would guess that it puts you ahead of only roughly half the hands your behind. I think that with a 10pfr this is unlikely to be +ev I would need a very strong lag read to make this river raise. You cant eliminate clubs either any more then you can eliminate TT.
As well I think the key to this is he will usually raise any hand you beat, and may fold some of the hands you are ahead of like TT. Even if you give a small P value to him folding those hands it makes this raise very -EV. You basically have to assume he will always overplay his hand to give yourself a 70% chance to be ahead which only makes this play 0 EV. Actually even with your assumptions it would be slightly -EV and you have to discount JJ relative to AK so I actually dont think that it is close here.

Re: AQo on BB to a SB raise (First in) - River Play
 

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As well I think the key to this is he will usually raise any hand you beat, and may fold some of the hands you are ahead of like TT. Even if you give a small P value to him folding those hands it makes this raise very -EV. You basically have to assume he will always overplay his hand to give yourself a 70% chance to be ahead which only makes this play 0 EV. Actually even with your assumptions it would be slightly -EV and you have to discount JJ relative to AK so I actually dont think that it is close here.

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Excellent.