Re: flopped the nuts, how many bets?
 

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What makes you guys say KK is more likely than JT?

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Basically the preflop raise. Most players open raise KK. Many dont open raise JT.

We were both speaking (or, at least I was, and I *think* GM was as well) that KK is more likely than JT BEFORE the crazy flop action. I would say things hit the fan when he 6-bets.

I would say that is the point at which KK becomes less likely than JT. And the point at which freerolling becomes an issue.

Re: flopped the nuts, how many bets?
 

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given the way this played though, i think he's more likely to have KK.

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Agreed.

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What makes you guys say KK is more likely than JT?

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Carmine is right ya know. This hand was open raised by the villain, I know many live 6/12 players who would do that without hesitation with hands such as TJo. CDC doesn't say anything about the villain's position (late, early, UTG), therefore we cannot put him on a definiitive hand such as KK, being any more likely than a hand such as JTo.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Re: flopped the nuts, how many bets?
 

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CDC doesn't say anything about the villain's position (late, early, UTG), therefore we cannot put him on a definiitive hand such as KK, being any more likely than a hand such as JTo.

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Given just the preflop info, KK is absolutely more likely than JTo, and its not close.

Re: flopped the nuts, how many bets?
 

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CDC doesn't say anything about the villain's position (late, early, UTG), therefore we cannot put him on a definiitive hand such as KK, being any more likely than a hand such as JTo.

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Given just the preflop info, KK is absolutely more likely than JTo, and its not close.

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you read the part where he said he was a bad player right?

Re: flopped the nuts, how many bets?
 

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you read the part where he said he was a bad player right?

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Yes.

Bad can mean many things.

All I can gather from the word 'bad' is that OP feels he stands to show a significant long term profit off of this player.

There are players who raise far too many hands preflop that I would call bad. And many players who raise far too few hands preflop that I would call bad.

Its not like he said 'passive' or 'aggressive'.

Bad, in and of itself, doesnt necessarily relate to PFR %.

Re: flopped the nuts, how many bets?
 

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CDC doesn't say anything about the villain's position (late, early, UTG), therefore we cannot put him on a definiitive hand such as KK, being any more likely than a hand such as JTo.

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Given just the preflop info, KK is absolutely more likely than JTo, and its not close.

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Sorry mate, your off on this one. There is no overwhelming evidence it could be KK. Now if CDC tells us the villain is UTG, UTG +1, or even MP1 then I think your argument holds water. At this stage we do not know other than he open raised.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Re: flopped the nuts, how many bets?
 

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Sorry mate, your off on this one. There is no overwhelming evidence it could be KK. Now if CDC tells us the villain is UTG, UTG +1, or even MP1 then I think your argument holds water. At this stage we do not know other than he open raised.

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I agree with most of this...

What is kind of ironic here, is that you are accusing me of making the error that you are making, while I am not.

Answer this question:

In a typical 6/12 live game, what percentage of open raises occur in each postion?

I mean, think about it: where are you more likely to open raise, UTG+1 or CO?

Despite the larger raising range in CO, the answer is UTG+1, because you are presented with the OPEN raising opportunity FAR more frequently in UTG+1 than CO.

I have a preflop raise of 9%, and open raise from the following positions with the frequency:

UTG: 6.56
UTG+1: 6.43
UTG+2: 4.63
MP1: 4.77
MP2: 4.44
MP3: 4.66
CO: 3.62
Button: 3.08

More open raises occur from non steal positions. Thus, KK is FAR and away more likely given all we know is he open raised.

I wouldnt think about open raising JT until MP3.

This means that about 70% of my open raises occur when I could have KK and I coud not have JT. The other 30% occur when I could have either.

If CDC stated it was a LP raise, then I would agree with you. Because we know nothing of the raisers position, we have to used weighed averages for the probabilty of an open raiser being in every position.

As I stated, KK is more likely for an open raise.

Re: flopped the nuts, how many bets?
 

uh, all this talk about KK vs JT is kind of out of the window once it goes n+1 bets, regardless of where the villian opened from. at SOME point you have to consider the flop action.

Re: flopped the nuts, how many bets?
 

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You need to tell us how many chips are in front of both you and him.

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Chris has him totally covered and the guy probably has enough to go 10-15 more flop bets. Chris forgot to include that the guy was very loose and pretty passive. Chris has also played every single hand at the table and everyone thinks he's a total donk.

Re: flopped the nuts, how many bets?
 

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You need to tell us how many chips are in front of both you and him.

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Chris has him totally covered and the guy probably has enough to go 10-15 more flop bets. Chris forgot to include that the guy was very loose and pretty passive. Chris has also played every single hand at the table and everyone thinks he's a total donk.

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So they have him pegged? Had to...