Re: A9s six players see flop.
 

Hello Nick, thanks for your arguing.

But why you should take a free card. The pot is big. Your bet is for value - 0.23*11.25=2.59BB. If you had AA/KK you will get here free card?

Re: A9s six players see flop.
 

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Hello Nick, thanks for your arguing.

But why you should take a free card. The pot is big. Your bet is for value - 0.23*11.25=2.59BB. If you had AA/KK you will get here free card?

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You can't just multiply your equity by the current pot size to determine whether or not to bet on the turn. The turn seems like an easy place to get a free card -

a) your equity is thin even if all players call (which they probably won't)
b) your fold equity isn't high enough
c) you probably won't fold out an Ace and if you did the increase in equity isn't high enough
d) you don't want a free showdown with A-high

Re: A9s six players see flop.
 

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But why you should take a free card. The pot is big. Your bet is for value - 0.23*11.25=2.59BB.

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If you want to find out if your bet is for value you should use pot equity. In this case we'll win the pot ~23% of the time. We'll have ~10-10.5 outs.

Our draw will come in: 10.5/45= ~23%

If we get 4 callers:
(0.23*4)-(0.77*1)= +0.15BB (a slim value bet)

I think we'll not get 4 callers often enough to make this bet profitable. It's risky since the pfr aggressor could be planning to check/raise the turn folding everyone else out and paing 2BB instead of 0BB to see this river would stink. Even if he don't check/raise I think Hero scared some people by raising the flop, it's only very rarely Hero gets 4 callers here IMO.

Re: A9s six players see flop.
 

Easy check. Betting is totally out of discussion and have negative EV in average and slim +EV if all of them call you. You don't need free SD and cleaning out your outs- you want not risk to be c/r-sed and to give up if no flush, A, or very rare 9 comes on board as you have no folding equity here at all.

In addition after that flop action probability for someone have same 4-flush is way higher than usually.

Re: A9s six players see flop.
 

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d) you don't want a free showdown with A-high

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You and Nick both said this. I don't really understand what you mean here?

Re: A9s six players see flop.
 

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d) you don't want a free showdown with A-high

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You and Nick both said this. I don't really understand what you mean here?

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We'll never win a showdown unimproved so there are no reason to bet the turn to get free showdown. If hero checks the turn he could fold safe to a river bet.

Re: A9s six players see flop.
 

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d) you don't want a free showdown with A-high

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You and Nick both said this. I don't really understand what you mean here?

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We'll never win a showdown unimproved so there are no reason to bet the turn to get free showdown. If hero checks the turn he could fold safe to a river bet.

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In many situations I'll bet Ace-high overs into one opponent on the turn if I've shown aggression, with the intention of checking behind on the river: I have fold equity and I save a tough decision if he tries to bluff into me on the river after I check the turn. So it seems like I do want a free showdown in those cases.

Is this situation different because of the number of players on the turn and the very low chance that Hero has the best hand makes it easy to fold the riv UI?

Redd

Re: A9s six players see flop.
 

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In many situations I'll bet Ace-high overs into one opponent on the turn if I've shown aggression, with the intention of checking behind on the river: I have fold equity and I save a tough decision if he tries to bluff into me on the river after I check the turn. So it seems like I do want a free showdown in those cases.

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This is true. I often bet the river HU to get a freedown. HU my opponent is likely to bluff the river and I can't fold the river safe. Since it'll cost the same to bet the turn and take a free showdown I like that line over checking the turn and calling the river. The reason is what you stated, I'll get folding equity that way.

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Is this situation different because of the number of players on the turn and the very low chance that Hero has the best hand makes it easy to fold the riv UI?


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You're correct. With 4 opponets Hero is almost never ahead and a fold on the river is safe. It's not likely for someone to try to bluff 4 players so we'll face a bluff on the river much more frequently HU.

Re: A9s six players see flop.
 

If you had two overcards, I can see betting this turn for value with 4 opponents. (You may have as many as 15 outs.) But with only the Ace as an overcard, I check the turn and take the free card. This is why I love having position!

Thanks Jon and Nick
 

Thanks for taking the time to explain this situation. The posts were very informative and probably plugged a leak for me.