This thread is starting to drive me nuts.........
 

There are only 2 reasons not to bet the flop here: #1 you have been shown AA, KJ, QQ or TT by another player, #2 you hate money.

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

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Post the example from the book if you have time.

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Here is the example from p.171 of HEFAP (sorry, was 171, not 170):

You have AA on the button, many players are in, and the pot is very large. The flop comes J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], and it is checked to you.

"The play is to also check! Then when someone bets on fourth street you raise -- unless a ten or a nine comes off. Again, if someone is going to draw out on you on thet urn you can't prevent it anyway. By playing your hand this way you'll be able to stop him from drawing out on you on the end."

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The biggest difference is that in the HPFAP hand, you only have 1 pair. If your opponent hits his straight on the turn, you have no redraws and you lose, so your flop bet is wasted. Plus HPFAP also usually assumes your opponents are rational and won't call here with crap hands like A4 or 55, so you only get calls from people who are correct to call.

In your hand, you have top 2 pair. If the straight comes on the turn you still have 4 outs to win on the river, so your flop bet isn't wasted regardless of what comes on the turn. You'll also get calls from A4, Q9, and 55 here on the flop.

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

<font color="red">BET </font>


It's more likely than not that neither a K or J will show up on the turn or river. Therefore, BET when you almost assuredly have the best hand, and it will probably remain that way. Making money is fun.


Board: Ah Qc Td
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 54.6716 % [ 00.54 00.00 ] { AsQs }
Hand 2: 11.4028 % [ 00.11 00.00 ] { K9o }
Hand 3: 04.6925 % [ 00.04 00.00 ] { A3s }
Hand 4: 02.7165 % [ 00.03 00.00 ] { 75s }
Hand 5: 22.3768 % [ 00.22 00.00 ] { JTo }
Hand 6: 04.1398 % [ 00.04 00.00 ] { 33 }

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

This is just bad advice for today's LL games. Buy SSH, and make that your Bible.

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

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<font color="red">BET </font>



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At what point do you not bet in fear of giving people proper odds to call a gut on the turn?

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

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<font color="red">BET </font>



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At what point do you not bet in fear of giving people proper odds to call a gut on the turn?

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I would say when the pot is smaller and your hand cannot improve to the best hand. That said, betting when you have the best hand is rarely a mistake. (I know, I know, if you flop quads blahblahblah)

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

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You'll also get calls from A4, Q9, and 55 here on the flop.

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This is, by far, the most compelling reason to bet, bet, bet the damn flop.

Oh, that and you almost certainly have the best hand right now and you MUST bet to protect it. As others have mentioned, lone K's and J's will be correct to call, but you would be infinitely more incorrect to let this check through. There's likely at least one K and one J out there, so you're most likely trying to dodge something like 6 cards. Even if the straight card comes on the turn, you have a redraw to a full house.

BET, dammit!

Tom

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

Thanks for all the input, good to see that this hand generated some quality responses for the most part.

Based on what has been said so far, I've concluded that the play dictated by Sklansky on p.171 on HEFAP is only useful in very distinct circumstances, and that it is rare enough for these circumstances to occur to bother. Also, it seems as if this might have been a good play against quality opponents who would fold a double bet with a gutshot, but as someone mentioned, in small stakes, opponents are probably going to call anyways, so it is better to just get the bets in when you can.

Again, thanks for the thoughtful responses.

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

This is a no-brainer bet.

Re: AQs hits the flop when the pot is large
 

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Also, it seems as if this might have been a good play against quality opponents who would fold a double bet with a gutshot,

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Again, this is WRONG. Not betting here is so bad it defies description. Giving a free card here is an abomination. I am out of breath.