Re: 15/30 TT against a TAG
 

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with the others that he most likely holds AcJc or KcQc

If he cold calls a good early player's open raise with either of these hands, he's not a TAG, he's just another Party clown.

[/ QUOTE ]

IIRC from SSH, those are 2 out of only 3 hands with which Ed Miller recommends cold-calling, the other being AQs.

Re: 15/30 TT against a TAG
 

With one limper and 1 raiser, I think calling 2 cold with small pairs is a mistake. Too expensive, no guarantee that you will get multiway. On the button with 3 or 4 already in and I'm willing to discuss it.

Re: 15/30 TT against a TAG
 

Mix it up by limping hand that you usually raise with. Or raising a hand you normally limp with. But cold calling with a hand that should be folded is not mixing it up, it's -EV.

Re: 15/30 TT against a TAG
 

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Quote:
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Quote:
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He has AK or AQ clubs.

Fold.


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AK is unlikely as TAG would 3-bet PF, but even if he showed you these cards, you'd have to call.

2/42 * 450 = $21.43 for the two T outs (and you'd probably win another 1-2 bets on the rivers)

3/42 * 225 = $16.07 for the non-club 4s

Gotta call.


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I didnt notice the 4 makes it a chop. That changes things a bit.

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I miss that too often. Calling is worth $9.20, with it.

Re: 15/30 TT against a TAG
 

So since we all seem to be going to the river, how many are able to give up the river for one bet?

MATH question for Analyst or others
 

I posted this in the beginners forum but didn't quite get the answer...so if anyone wants to take the time to enlighten me I'd appreciate it.

Analyst wrote:
[ QUOTE ]
AK is unlikely as TAG would 3-bet PF, but even if he showed you these cards, you'd have to call.

2/42 * 450 = $21.43 for the two T outs (and you'd probably win another 1-2 bets on the rivers)

[/ QUOTE ]

If there are 4 board cards, 2 in hero's hand and we "know" opponent has AcQc, that makes 8 known cards......why are you calculating your two T outs among 42 remaining cards instead of 44 (52-8)?

i.e. why 2/42 instead of 2/44

Thanks!

Re: MATH question for Analyst or others
 

[ QUOTE ]

If there are 4 board cards, 2 in hero's hand and we "know" opponent has AcQc, that makes 8 known cards......why are you calculating your two T outs among 42 remaining cards instead of 44 (52-8)?

i.e. why 2/42 instead of 2/44

Thanks!

[/ QUOTE ]

Because subtraction is apparently beyond Analyst's grasp . . . [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Let's try this:

2/44 * 450 = $20.45
3/44 * 225 = $15.34

Still an easy, easy call unless you think that there's ~~~20% or higher chance that villain has a set.

Sorry about that!

Re: MATH question for Analyst or others
 

np

None of the other posters objected so I thought I was missing something.

RESULTS
 

First of all, thanks to all who responded! Some very interesting discussion.

When the TAG called preflop, I put him on AQo, AQs, AJs, KQs, as well as pairs TT and lower. I don't think he would call with worse hands, and I think he would 3-bet with better hands.

So when he 3-bet the flop, I narrowed it down to AcQc, AcJc, KcQc, and once again pairs TT and lower. So unless he had 55/33/22, I was pretty sure I still had him beat, and the moron tagging along in the BB made it an easy cap for me.

Thus, I was somewhat surprised to see him raise the turn. Would he raise with anything that doesn't beat me? The only possibility is something like 99/88, but I would consider that a pretty sophisticated move. The reason I say that is that he needs to be fairly certain that he read me correctly for a high pocket pair and he needs to know that I'm capable of folding. The presence of the loosie in BB makes this move even more difficult.

Now comes the embarrassing part. I actually didn't even consider the outs for the chop. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] So since I was pretty sure that I was drawing to 2 outs, I mucked. Of course, the correct EV for calling (assuming he doesn't have a T or a 4) is:

(2/44)*15 + (3/44)*7.5 - 39/44 = 0.307 BB

So my mistake cost me $9. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Incidentally, the math above assumes that I'm capable of calling the turn raise and folding on the river without improvement. If I'm not, mucking is still the correct turn action.

Re: RESULTS
 

you didn't see his hand?