Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

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in fact, if i am the villain, and it takes you longer than 5 seconds to think, and then i see your cards after u call, i would be pissed that you made me sweat it out for even that long

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Agreed. First thing I thought about after I saw "had to sit and think it out for a bit" was that the villain is going to be *pissed* when he proudly flips over his AA and sees the nuts being slowrolled like that.

It's a call and it's not remotely close. If this were PLO, you might have a case for folding. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

No offense intended, but if you need to think about your action here after he pushes, you should maybe consider fly fishing or needlepoint as time-occupiers.

Let's see...I sat and waited for a hand for hours, flopped the nuts, then got raised allin against a player who almost certainly has a set.

Come on. You can't always be looking for a reason to be beat. You will virtually always be a favorite here.

If the casino had a house game table that advertised that you were virtually always a favorite and could bet as much as you wanted, would you go to the buffet instead?

Yes, I mean assuming you somehow KNEW the game was legit.

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

Seriously. When you called with that hand what kind of flop did you WANT to see that you wouldn't have to make a decision on? QQQ? KKK? A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]? This is the best possible scenario for you to be in. Worst case scenario he is on a freeroll with 9 outs.

I'd call here. And then, I'd call one more time just in case I didn't the first time.

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In risposta di:</font><hr />
</font><blockquote><font class="small">In risposta di:</font><hr />

c) are you thinking too much?

yes.

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are you talking about hero or me?

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hero....



but also you, now.

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

There is some point where if the stacks are deep enough, that you have to fold. If villian could somehow read you for the nuts, and he did have KQ clubs, his play would be pretty damn nasty and you be in a pretty crappy place.

All that being said, you likely have to call here. His play only makes sense if he read you for the nuts. I doubt he could do that given the action. If he moved in for 10k, I'd say a fold is in order. 5k, maybe. I have no idea where the critical point is and it would be interesting to find out.

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

wouldn't fold even if the guy had a bazooka.

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

I know it may sound crazy, but at some point it will become absolutely wrong to call without re-draws here.

Say you and an excellent player both had 100k behind. You bet $200 and he moves in for $99800. Your play with "just the nuts" should be a lot simpler now. You must fold.

The question is, how deep does the money have to be in order to make a fold correct?

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

Exactly the amount that you can't afford to lose, both emotionally and financially.

Re: Laying down the nuts...? EV calculations
 

Given the pot and bet size, here's your expected value from calling against certain hands:

-486 against KcQc (straight plus flush draw)
+220 against KcQx or KdQd (straight plus backdoor flush)
+323 against straight with no flush draw (guaranteed chop)
+665 against flush draw with gutshot and pair (KTc)
+776 against flush draw with gutshot (K9c)
+994 against AA
+1750 against top two, +1554 against AdJd (top two/backdoor flush draw)

If he flashed you the king of clubs and a black queen and you couldn't tell whether it was clubs or spades, you could fold.

By the way, given the dead money in the pot, his all-in raise would have to be for 6700 more to make folding correct against KcQx or KQd.

Dan

Re: Laying down the nuts...?
 

Thank you for bringing some sense into this thread.

Justin A