Pythagorean W-L
 

I just want to point out something to people who think the Yankees get "lucky" every year with their W-L record or get carried away with Bill James stuff (much of with I agree).

Since Joe Torre joined the Yankees in 1996, the Yankees have a better W-L record than their expected pythagorean W-L record 8 out of 9 years (1997 is the only exception).

The Red Sox, on the other hand, have failed to reach their expected W-L record 5 out of 8 years.

All I'm saying is that there is no doubt some teams just know how to win.

Re: Anyone Believe Me Yet?
 

No chin down, just trying to be objective.

Re: Pythagorean W-L
 

That's interesting about the Yankees. I wonder if anybody's investigated on possible reasons: high on-base percentage? mangerial decisions? Rivera? Or perhaps, as you suggest, they just know how to win (i.e., Torre, Jeter, et al, are baseball wise).

Re: Pythagorean W-L
 

One hypothesis is that it is primarily a product of the way their bullpen has been designed. Led by Rivera, they have generally had way above average pitchers throwing crucial innings in close games, which should lead to an advantage in those situations. But they also have seemed to often have below-average guys in the rest of the bullpen, who are often tossing garbage innings. So perhaps this leads them to give up more runs in blowout situations, making their run differential less impressive.

Re: Anyone Believe Me Yet?
 

Andy,

You're beginning to sound like a Red Sox fan. The Sox could start the year 82-0 and half of Boston would point out there's still a long way to go.

Re: Anyone Believe Me Yet?
 

Remember, I said at the beginning of the year they didn't have sufficient starting pitching to make the playoffs. It's actually been even worse than I had anticipated with Mussina being basically useless and Brown hurt. The thing I hadn't foreseen was how good Gordon would be.

Re: Anyone Believe Me Yet?
 

Just so you all know where I'm coming from, I'm a Red Sox fan. But another Yankee win in their last at bat for their league leading 49th come from behind victory. Is this one of those statistical things that seems incredible but really isn't because I'm sure impressed by it?

Re: Anyone Believe Me Yet?
 

A lot of it has to do with poor starting pitching. It's easier to compile an impressive come from behind resume when you're behind.

Re: Anyone Believe Me Yet?
 

Good point! They have so many come from behind victories simply because they are behind so often because of their starting pitching.

I knew there had to be an explanation. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]