Re: Totals analysis MNF
 

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I just slept through the last half-hour. Wow. This Akers FG attempt kills the $200 win and doesn't help me cover -3 either.

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Congratulations. This was a good middle (41 occurs about 4% of the time).

Re: Totals analysis MNF
 

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Wow great bet. Congrats man

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Thanks y'all. If it makes you feel better, I lost $85 on Philly -3.

Re: Totals analysis MNF
 

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Risking $2.74 to win $104.25 if 41 hits.

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vnh, sir...

Re: Totals analysis MNF
 

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Wow great bet. Congrats man

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Re: Totals analysis MNF
 

funny... i had eagles -3

But after i watched the cowboys run back the int for a td, i was actually thinking "holy @#$% sygamel is the man!".... then it dawned on me that my bet was screwed [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img].

on a side note: im done with sports betting.. definatly -EV for me (although i must say that it was fun [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img])

Re: Totals analysis MNF
 

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funny... i had eagles -3

But after i watched the cowboys run back the int for a td, i was actually thinking "holy @#$% sygamel is the man!".... then it dawned on me that my bet was screwed [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img].

on a side note: im done with sports betting.. definatly -EV for me (although i must say that it was fun [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img])

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Thanks. The odds were slim that it would hit, I just got lucky.

\"Soft Middle\"
 

Okay, I'm a noob and this the first I've seen of this. Can someone please explain this to me numbers-wise how it works out?

Let me see how this works

If the total was under 41, you'd win $97.27 and lose $100, for a net loss of $2.73
If the total was over 41, you'd win $104.25 and lose $107, for a net loss of $2.75

If the total was exactly 41, you'd win $104.25 and push on the other bet for a net win of $104.25

So, the reason for middling this is a low risk ($2.75 at most), high reward longshot bet, right?

Should I be middling or soft middling every chance I can get, even on games I would not normally bet?

And congrats on the win!

Re: \"Soft Middle\"
 

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Okay, I'm a noob and this the first I've seen of this. Can someone please explain this to me numbers-wise how it works out?

Let me see how this works

If the total was under 41, you'd win $97.27 and lose $100, for a net loss of $2.73
If the total was over 41, you'd win $104.25 and lose $107, for a net loss of $2.75

If the total was exactly 41, you'd win $104.25 and push on the other bet for a net win of $104.25

So, the reason for middling this is a low risk ($2.75 at most), high reward longshot bet, right?

Should I be middling or soft middling every chance I can get, even on games I would not normally bet?

And congrats on the win!

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It depends on the total. 41 is a common total in football - occurring in about 4.4% of all games. He needed less than 3% for it to be profitable.

Also, a middle is never the best bet EV-wise. If a profitable middle exists, one of the two sides has to be more +EV than the other.

Re: \"Soft Middle\"
 

[ QUOTE ]
Okay, I'm a noob and this the first I've seen of this. Can someone please explain this to me numbers-wise how it works out?

Let me see how this works

If the total was under 41, you'd win $97.27 and lose $100, for a net loss of $2.73
If the total was over 41, you'd win $104.25 and lose $107, for a net loss of $2.75

If the total was exactly 41, you'd win $104.25 and push on the other bet for a net win of $104.25

So, the reason for middling this is a low risk ($2.75 at most), high reward longshot bet, right?

Should I be middling or soft middling every chance I can get, even on games I would not normally bet?

And congrats on the win!

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Thanks...I estimated the ~2.6% cost was lower than the odds of 41 hitting so I took it.

Re: \"Soft Middle\"
 

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Okay, I'm a noob and this the first I've seen of this. Can someone please explain this to me numbers-wise how it works out?

Let me see how this works

If the total was under 41, you'd win $97.27 and lose $100, for a net loss of $2.73
If the total was over 41, you'd win $104.25 and lose $107, for a net loss of $2.75

If the total was exactly 41, you'd win $104.25 and push on the other bet for a net win of $104.25

So, the reason for middling this is a low risk ($2.75 at most), high reward longshot bet, right?

Should I be middling or soft middling every chance I can get, even on games I would not normally bet?

And congrats on the win!

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It depends on the total. 41 is a common total in football - occurring in about 4.4% of all games. He needed less than 3% for it to be profitable.

Also, a middle is never the best bet EV-wise. If a profitable middle exists, one of the two sides has to be more +EV than the other.

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So "common totals" also apply to point spreads like 3 and 7 (and 10) right? I can soft middle a game with a spread of 3 and 2.5 for example? And where can I find common totals that should be middled?

If the middle isn't the best bet, it does allow for low-risk/high reward betting (though at a longshot), right? I'm just trying to understand WHY he made this bet since it certainly was a longshot to come through.

Anyways, to summarize what I think you said, look for middle or soft middle opportunities if it lands on common numbers.