Re: Is playing PowerBall currently +EV???
 

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a sufficiently large bankroll, with sufficiently high table limits, you could play a Martingale because "Who cares, I'll probably die before I bust anyways"?

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If I have a sufficiently large bankroll for this purpose I have better things to be doing than using it to grind out a few dollars an hour using the Martingale system because I'll die before I'll bust!

Re: Is playing PowerBall currently +EV???
 

I guess so...

Not as stupid as it sounds. *If* the limits were so high that you only had a 0.00000000000001% lifetime chance of busting then why not? On the other hand, I could think of better things to do with a quadromiliodduplexokabillion dollars.

Re: Is playing PowerBall currently +EV???
 

Keep in mind for your EV calculations that if you have made money gambling this year, that your losing Powerball tickets can be deducted from those wins for tax purposes. Just be sure to keep the receipts!

It's still -EV because of the chance of splitting the jackpot. I bought 5 tickets, because I had an extra $5 bill and you can get 5 sets of numbers on one sheet.

Re: Is playing PowerBall currently +EV???
 

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I had an extra $5 bill.

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I've never really understood that.

I've never had an extra $5 bill -- what do they look like?

Re: Is playing PowerBall currently +EV???
 

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$ 340 Million
$ 164.4 Million Cash Value

If the cash value is 164.4 million doesnt that make it +ev??? F it im playing but I still wanna know the answer.


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You're playing with tax free dollars, calculate your winning in tax free dollars. 164.4MM * .6 = 98.64MM if you're the only winner.

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prize/ after 40% tax/ odds/ EV
$164,400,000 $98,640,000 1 in 146,107,962 $0.675
$200,000 $120,000 1 in 3,563,609 $0.034
$10,000 $6,000 1 in 584,432 $0.010
$100 $100 1 in 14,254 $0.007
$100 $100 1 in 11,927 $0.008
$7 $7 1 in 291 $0.024
$7 $7 1 in 745 $0.009
$4 $4 1 in 127 $0.032
$3 $3 1 in 69 $0.044

total EV===> $0.843

There is a bonus for second place winnings that makes this bet +. The grand prize is know to be 340mil, but the size of the second place bonus (now at 20 mil) has a much bigger effect on EV than the grand prize.

the effect of this 2nd place bonus is as follows and includes what would happen if the second place prize were split 10 ways. It's not really an EV analysis but gives an idea of the effect that the bonus could have on EV.

prize after 40% tax odds EV
$164,400,000 $98,640,000 1 in 146,107,962 $0.675
$20,000,000 $1,200,000 1 in 3,563,609 $0.337
$10,000 $6,000 1 in 584,432 $0.010
$100 $100 1 in 14,254 $0.007
$100 $100 1 in 11,927 $0.008
$7 $7 1 in 291 $0.024
$7 $7 1 in 745 $0.009
$4 $4 1 in 127 $0.032
$3 $3 1 in 69 $0.044

total EV===> $1.146

It's like having a layover of a well-paying state lottery on top of the grandprize.

Re: Is playing PowerBall currently +EV???
 

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$20,000,000 $1,200,000 1 in 3,563,609 $0.337

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67MM tickets sold.
18.8 expected winners.
Value = $638,297 = .18

total EV===> $.989

Re: Is playing PowerBall currently +EV???
 

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$20,000,000 $1,200,000 1 in 3,563,609 $0.337

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67MM tickets sold.
18.8 expected winners.
Value = $638,297 = .18

total EV===> $.989

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this also increases the amount in the bonus pool
website says it's at 30 mil mow. add 8.9 cents.

I didn't win-
powerball is rigged.

Re: Is playing PowerBall currently +EV???
 

OMG I WON!!!!







$3

Re: Is playing PowerBall currently +EV???
 

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powerball is rigged.

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Damn right it is.
My wifes office pool had over 200 tickets.
They "won" $3.

Re: Is playing PowerBall currently +EV???
 

It's not +EV because the odds are so large, you could play a lifetime and never even hope of hitting it. Positive expectation involves having a remote chance, 1 in 146mil is not even close to remote.

Odds of being killed by fireworks: 1 in 20mil
Odds of being killed by dog bite: 1 in 18mil
Odds of being killed by lightning: 1 in 4mil
Odds of being killed in bathtub: 1 in 800k
Odds of being killed in plane crash: 1 in 391k
Odds of being killed in a car crash: 1 in 6k

It looks being killed in a car crash is +EV during a person's lifetime.