Re: AKo - Time for a laydown?
 

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I am MUCH closer to raising this turn than I am to folding this river.

No way I'm folding this river for one bet.

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Oh my God! Is it that bad!? It can't be, i was crying and kicking my cat and all that stuff when calling the river [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: AKo - Time for a laydown?
 

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Or we may draw to 7 outs if our kings are good vs villains AQ but how often is that?

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Could you explain what that means?

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4 outs to a straight and if villain has AQ we have 3 out since if a king hit we have two higher pairs...

Re: AKo - Time for a laydown?
 

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I am MUCH closer to raising this turn than I am to folding this river.

No way I'm folding this river for one bet.

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Oh my God! Is it that bad!? It can't be, i was crying and kicking my cat and all that stuff when calling the river [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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The salient points for me are:

1. The villain who bets out the turn is not really that passive. 14/10/2.7 or whatever may be betting a fair amount of stuff.

2. You got bet into and not check-raised. Some players may just be playing an A this way, or an A with a draw. Some meaningful amount of the time you are probably chopping.

3. The intermediate player means nothing, and the first position villain may recognize this.

4. The pot is pretty big.

Re: AKo - Time for a laydown?
 

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1. The villain who bets out the turn is not really that passive. 14/10/2.7 or whatever may be betting a fair amount of stuff.

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He's not passive, but seemingly well playing after a large sample. A TAG shouldn't be betting this without anything that beats me. And the only meaningful draw I can see him betting along with an ace given his preflop raise is AcTc.

I agree this is a call on the river, but to me it seems pretty slim.

Results
 

UTG held KcTc

Re: Results
 

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UTG held KcTc

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With this information, the turn is a CLEAR FOLD.

Donk bets from TAG's when your holding TPTK are always unpleasant, I am falling into calldown mode here expecting to lose, but winning enough here to make calling profitable.