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-   -   my little secret (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=392952)

etizzle 12-07-2005 04:08 AM

Re: my little secret
 
fair enough. I did beat him into the pot. He had 66 and of course I spiked an A and MHIG.

All in all i think calling is the right play despite the results. Once I flatcall preflop its probably correct to go broke on most flops that arent monotone or JT9 or something like that.

mother_brain 12-07-2005 04:36 AM

Re: my little secret
 
Yeah I know that I was thinking it was a call. The more I thought about it tonight I got to thinking of all the min bets I had faced in this situation and they are sets a massive percentage of the time.

The logic is that the set is likely way ahead a majority of the time so they bet a little. Even if the other person has KQ or 89 for some reason and in those very few situations where they hit on the turn and you make a bad call with a set that is now behind----you still have a lot of outs to fill up on the river. The other 95% of the time even them calling your $10 bet is a +EV move for the person with the set.

This is the only reasoning I can think of for the stupid min bets in these situations.

12-07-2005 05:54 AM

Re: my little secret
 
i'd fold barring a read.
he looks like he used the ultimate fish play with a set: min betting. QQ or KK would definitely bet more on the flop, and i doubt QK would raise allin unless you are playing doyle brunson.

kagame 12-07-2005 05:56 AM

Re: my little secret
 
i tend to ignore min bets, and act like no betting has occured, and it serves me well

if i raise and get reraised, its a check raise

i min bet with crud btw, or ive misclicked

why is my given hand range innaccurate, aside from discounting 66 or JT (which was implied, but give that an extra 10-15% of being beat and take it away evenly from the bluff or QQ/KK)

min betting can mean anything, but if you bet weakly and get raised, dont you think youre being bluffed? especially if its from the passive player preflop? i think an overs + gutshot replay bluff is very likely here at high stakes play


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