Re: this stuff pisses me off
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[ QUOTE ] Does anyone care to do the math assuming a turn 3bet is always at least two pair? [/ QUOTE ] Board: Ks Ts 5d 8d Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 13.6364 % 13.64% 00.00% { KhJd } Hand 2: 86.3636 % 86.36% 00.00% { KTs, K8s, K5s, KTo, K8o, K5o } Assume you call a 3bet and call the river bet, so you put in 2 more on the turn 1 on the river: .86 * 3 = -2.58BB Pot will be 9.5BB on river not counting the 3 you put in. .136 * 9.5 = 1.29 1.29-2.58 = -1.28 BB. So you lose -1.28BB when he has 2 pair here. x is % of the time he has 2 pair: So 1.28x = 9.5(1-x) 10.78x = 9.5 x = .88 So he needs 2 pair here >88% of the time to make 3betting -EV. [/ QUOTE ] What about the times he doesn't have 2 pair, but improves to beat us? |
Re: this stuff pisses me off
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[ QUOTE ] I've seen worse Ks do this often enough - especially 3bet the flop - that its nuts to fold the turn. [/ QUOTE ] If you cap the flop, they aren't leading the turn often enough with a worse hand to justify calling. [/ QUOTE ] Who said we're capping after a 3bet? I am confused about what you're trying to say here. |
Re: this stuff pisses me off
raise the flop
stripsqueez - chickenhawk |
Re: this stuff pisses me off
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