Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

Without reading other posts...

First Instinct: Fold. I don't think you quite have odds here.

Mathy:
Your direct pot odds are 150:350, with implied odds of 150:925.

If you miss the turn, you have to fold, getting 575:500.

Odds are about 4-1 against hitting your straight on the turn, so you need to get at least 600 back to make this call correct, so it appears good, thus far.

However, he has about 4:1 to fill up on the river. So when you hit, you are only getting about 80% of the money for the call.

925 * 80% = 740

Further assuming that he has the Ah, which he will 66% of the time, two of our straight cards give him further outs, which will put him at about 40% equity, earning us only 925 * 60% = 555.

So...
a) We will hit the hand about 20% of the time.
b) Of that 20%, it will be the nuts 75% of the time, without the heart, and he will be improve on the river to win 20% of the time..
c) 25% of the time it will be a heart. 33% of that time, he will not have the heart, leaving the same situation as b.
c) 66% of the time,it will be a heart and he will have the Ah, and 40% chance to improve.


20% * 80% * 925 = 148 * 83.25 = 12321
20% * 60% * 925 = 111 * 16.75 = 1859.25

(12321 + 1859.25) / 100 = 141

So.... you can call 141 and have +EV on this call. Since you have to call 150, it is marginally -EV.

Somebody let me know if my logic is flawed here in any way.

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

roughly 6.15:1 offered to you. you are 8/45 to hit and if you hit (ignoring Ah for convenience) he's got 10/44 redraw. so 45x44/8x33 = 45x4/8x3 = 15 / 2 = 7.5:1 so fold.

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

[ QUOTE ]
my instinct is fold, my math answer is:

not factoring in redraws, it would be +EV as

(8/45)*925 - (36/45)*150 = 44.37

but we have the cases of redraws, so we lose 725 sometimes to the nut flush or to a boat. 2/45 unseen turn cards give him a hearts+boat redraw (10 + 9 outs), 6/45 give him just the boat draw (10 outs).

edit: this is wrong, should be

so we lose 725 (2/8)*(19/45) + (6/8)*(10/45) about 27%, of the time that we hit. rest of the of time we win 925 obviously.

so finally we get

(8/45)*(.73*925 - .27*725) - (36/45)*150 = -34.79

edit: assuming we are against the ace of hearts.
--turnipmonster

[/ QUOTE ]

You can calculate EV more precisely by giving villain a 2/3 chance of having the ace of hearts. (three combos of aces possible in villain's hand, two of which have the ace of hearts, so 2/3 chance he has it.)

I'm too lazy to make sure my math is right, but with that rectification my calculations give hero's straight very close to .75 EV, which brings us within a blind or so of 0 EV.

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

what i think is interesting is that everyone is answering this question based solely on math, which leads me to believe that you guys aren't giving proper considerations to all the factors that can lead you to be a winning player at a high level in big bet poker.

namely it can be a very +EV thing to create a loose/gambling table image when in fact you aren't really gambling that much.

think about the table image you'll create for yourself if you can hit this hand and go to showdown, then combine that with the tilt factor you'll be creating by sucking out on his top set.

not every decision at a poker table is based strictly on math.

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

Good point, particularly tilt factor.

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

ML4L's number (didn't check it) was -25 assuming no Ah, my number (assuming Ah) was -35.

--turnipmonster

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

[ QUOTE ]
think about the table image you'll create for yourself if you can hit this hand and go to showdown, then combine that with the tilt factor you'll be creating by sucking out on his top set.

not every decision at a poker table is based strictly on math.

[/ QUOTE ]

That will be some loose table image calling flop bets with a straight flush draw [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img].

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

Straight flush draw?

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

my first instinct was that i should probably call because i misread that opponent had a set (but a random set) and so you would have the advantage on flushes....given top set 100% of the time, its close but probably a fold...

on the flop:
8 outs from 45 cards = 4.625 to 1 = 17.8%

on the turn:
Opponent has 10 FH/quads outs plus a share of possible flush outs. A flush possibility will exist 25% of the time (2 out of 8 str8 cards). There is a 66.7% chance of him having the Ah. So the opponent's flush redraw will exist 66.7% of 25% = 16.67% of the time. Further, you will always have a str8 flush draw (1 or 2 outs) if you hit your str8 with a flush card. Therefore, he will only have 6.5 effective flush outs (if thats even a good term?) whereas you will have 1.5.

(10 + 6.5) of 44 = 37.5%
37.5% of 16.67% = 6.25% chance of redraw on flush turn

10 of 44 = 22.7%
22.7% of (100% - 16.67%) = 18.916% chance of redraw on non-flush turn

6.25% + 18.916% = 25.17% overall chance of opponent redrawing

EV:
100 - 17.8% = 82.2% of the time you lose $150
25.17% of 17.8% = 4.5% of the time you lose $725 (150 + 575)
74.83% of 17.8% = 13.3% of the time you gain $925 (350 + 575)

(.822 * -150) + (.045 * -725) + (.133 * 925) =
-123.3 + -32.63 + 123.03 = -$32.91


So its a fold, but close....however, if you change the question to be a random set, it would probably work out to be a call because he would have no flush redraw with ~77% of his sets.

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

Doesnt matter. Fold if you hate variance. First instinct guess. I assume villain got us covered?