Re: How many outs?
 

With the original description given of the players, these seem to be reasonable hands to put them on. The assumption I use from SSH is that overcards start off being worth 3 outs and then you adjust from there. Is this how you figure overcard outs, or is there something I am missing that would make me value these outs more?

Re: I think it\'s an interesting hand
 

how anyone could advocate folding here is beyond me.

Re: I think it\'s an interesting hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
Nice.

Change the flop to T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

and talk to me again.

[/ QUOTE ]

K is now worth ~ 2 outs w/o straight potential but you lost your BDSD(which was a 2 gapper anyway) so i think what you gained in the less tainted king you gave up in the BDSD(which being a two gapper i only alotted .5 outs to anyway).

Re: I think it\'s an interesting hand
 

I think it's a pretty easy call. This pot is just way too big to fold.

As far as call vs. raise...by "semi-decent" I'm thinking MP1 is betting into a large field vs. check/raising considering his relative position to you means a vast majority of the time he's got:

1) A draw or pair+draw that with 3 callers and no raise he's likely to just bet again on the turn.
2) A big hand that you're getting 3-bet with.
3) A really big hand that he may call the flop raise with but lead the turn to keep opponents trapped.

I doubt it's anything like Tx that you would want to raise. But then maybe I'm giving too much credit to "semi decent".

Also, while the free card is appealing (and I agree if the chances of getting it are decent then a raise is OK) so is paying just 1 SB to see the turn card and turn action to you.

Did I mention folding is bad?

Chief

Re: I think it\'s an interesting hand
 

I can't see how anyone would even consider folding. IMO folding is not an option. I like a call, but I do wonder if a raise would clean up any top pair outs that we might have. IF it can get a couple of early position folds, then a riase could very well help us a lot in this hand

OK....let\'s talk about it then.
 

This hand came from Middle Limit Holdem Poker from Ciaffone and Brier.

I tried to represent "Middle Limit" by saying "decent players thinking at a decent level"...I hope that did it justice as I have no true feel for it since I've not played something like 15/30 or 20/40 before.

Anyway:

Here it is from page 13:

"The last possibility of a tainted board-card we will discuss is with overcards. Be aware of situations when pairing an overcard makes a possible straight. Here is an example. You raise on the button with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] after several opponents have limped, and wind up with four callers (whoops…I made it 5..that could make a difference). The flop comes T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. A player in MP bets and there are 2 callers. What do you do? We believe you should fold. The deciding factor is that king you are trying to pair may give someone with a AJ a very big smile, since they would not hold the nut straight. If you change the board by making the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] the 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], a call is now reasonable, since none of your outs are tainted by a straight-making possibility for the opponents."

This sounded weak to me, so I wanted to throw it out here for discussion.

Re: How many outs?
 

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[ QUOTE ]
Well, three 10's are certainly good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you calling a ten an out?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ha, you know what I meant.

Re: I think it\'s an interesting hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
While you probably still have 3 Ace outs your King outs are probably worthless. So what is a backdoor nut flush worth to you? Given your description of the other players, even with the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], I would fold here.

Raising the flop accomplishes nothing. MP1 bet here knowing that you were the preflop raiser so he either doesn't care if you raise (e.g. he's got a big draw and he's building the pot) or he wants you to (e.g. he's got top pair and wants to reraise to thin the field).

Calling the flop doesn't help much either: MP1 got two callers, so it seems to me that you aren't the only guy with a heart or two in your hand, so you probably have fewer flush outs than you think. If a heart comes on the turn, it may prove quite expensive to chase your draw to the river.

Overall, your outs are either tainted or fewer than yout think. Fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

In the words of DJ Shadow, Break it down now.

Why are his king outs useless? This is a classic HEPFAP situation in which my opponents are more likely to have my ace outs reverse-dominated rather than my kings. A pair of kings will win here often. And what is a backdoor flush draw worth to me? 1.5 outs. You have no reason yet to believe anyone has hearts; the range of hands that an Unknown might donkbet this flop with is too wide.

Next. Both your situations are very likely. However, given the PF action, I would venture to say this table is fairly passive. There is a good chance raising will give us a free card. And if he and everyone else is drawing, then we have the best hand right?

Next. Calling in this spot is an equally viable option. No one is folding to our raise in this huge pot. We can assume this given the read of "semi-decent players." They know how to calculate pot odds. And flop overcalls mean nothing. People always find reasons to call. I have a lot of weak draws combined on this flop, and the pot is huge. You know what that means? Equity edge.

Next. If a heart comes on the turn, it's not how much I pay to draw that counts; it's the odds the pot lays me. If I hit my draw, I win here almost always.

Folding is, by far, the worst option of the 3.

EDIT: I may have given K outs too much credit, since they complete the 9TQJ straight. However, if you spike a K, the action will easily dictate whether or not your K is good.

Re: How many outs?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well, three 10's are certainly good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you calling a ten an out?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ha, you know what I meant.

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry, i certainly don`t know what you mean.

Re: How many outs?
 

9T hits good limpers in so many ways. Either straight draws, two pair, a hand that has you reverse dominated like A9 and add to that there is a flush draw. I would fold without the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. With it I'd say you have no more than something like 3 outs. Why is there a bet and two calls, no raise? I smell a trap here.